TORONTO – After a hard-earned celebration, the focus will soon turn to what’s next for the Toronto Blue Jays, who await the winner of the Yankees-Red Sox Wild Card Round series that’s set to begin in New York Tuesday evening.
The next few days will include workouts at Rogers Centre ahead of Saturday’s ALDS opener – and plenty of questions about who will make the Blue Jays’ playoff roster. The specifics don’t have to be finalized until Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET and will depend on a variety of factors, including health and opponent.
With that in mind, this isn’t a prediction as to who the Blue Jays will roster but rather a closer look at where their tougher decisions might exist and which variables will inform the decisions GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider eventually make.
Starting with the position players, here’s a look at who’s an apparent lock to make the roster and whose placement on the roster looks more conditional:
Rules & context
Each team gets 26 roster spots, with a maximum of 13 pitchers allowed and rosters can be reset for each series. That’s a reduction of two from this past weekend, when teams closed out the regular season with expanded 28-man rosters and up to 14 pitchers. Notable, given the Blue Jays’ injuries, is that a player subbed out during a post-season series due to injury is ineligible to appear in the next round, so there’s risk in rushing someone back.
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For some context on how teams build their rosters, the eight LDS teams rostered between 11 and 13 pitchers last year, with two AL teams going bench-heavy and lighter on the pitching side:
Yankees, Royals: 11 pitchers, 15 position players
Tigers, Guardians, Phillies: 12 pitchers, 14 position players
Dodgers, Padres, Mets: 13 pitchers, 13 position players
Position players
Apparent locks (12): Alejandro Kirk, Tyler Heineman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, Anthony Santander, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Myles Straw, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider
Additional candidates (4): Bo Bichette, Joey Loperfido, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ty France
Factors to consider: Given that Bo Bichette is yet to start running and is still only hitting off a tee and taking flips, it’s a stretch to expect him back for Saturday. If he’s not on the roster, Kiner-Falefa has a clear path to a spot as a backup infielder who offers late-game defence, and even if Bichette were to play in the ALDS, the Blue Jays would likely need a deep bench behind him to ensure they can pinch run as needed. Under those circumstances, Kiner-Falefa has a very good shot at being on this roster, being used as he has been in recent days, coming in during the late innings for Barger and playing second, with Clement sliding over to third in an air-tight infield.
While Anthony Santander just returned to action a week ago, it was telling that the Blue Jays batted him cleanup Sunday given the stakes of that game. Amid Bichette’s ongoing absence, he’s their best bet to provide some impact. With that in mind, he’s seemingly a lock to play in the ALDS.
There’s a chance Loperfido, who manager John Schneider described as someone waiting for an opportunity right now, and France, if healthy enough to return from the IL, are on the outside looking in, but some of that depends on how many pitchers the Blue Jays end up carrying. France makes sense as an option against left-handed starters, as well, with the Yankees featuring Max Fried and Carlos Rodon and Boston being fronted by Garrett Crochet, and the Blue Jays have used him as a late-innings pinch-hitter, too.
Pitchers
Apparent locks (9): Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, Yariel Rodriguez, Louis Varland, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer
Additional candidates (5): Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Tommy Nance, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher
Presumed unavailable due to injury (1): Jose Berrios
Factors to consider: There’s more variability on the pitching side depending on how many arms they plan to carry and how the Blue Jays decide to approach their starters. The schedule, with off-days after Games 2 and 4, if necessary, opens room for creativity such as non-traditional starts, piggybacking or a bullpen day.
As well, no matter who the Blue Jays face, they’ll need lefties in the bullpen to navigate the Yankees (who feature left-handed hitters Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Austin Wells and Ryan McMahon) or the Red Sox (Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, Nathaniel Lowe and Wilber Abreu).
Gausman and Bieber will presumably start the first two games of the ALDS in some order, with the Game 1 starter also lining up for a decisive Game 5, if needed. What they do in between is in question, starting with Bassitt, who’s said to be recovering well from the back inflammation that landed him on the injured list late in the season.
Assuming Bassitt’s available, he’s on this roster, and if the Blue Jays decide to roll out more traditionally, well, October outings are why they signed Scherzer.
But what to make of the 25 runs he’s allowed in his last 25 innings across six starts, including rough outings against both the Yankees and Red Sox? Where does Yesavage fit in that case? And was last week’s bullpen day against Boston, started by Varland with bulk from Lauer, a dry run for a playoff option?
Carrying both Bassitt and Scherzer would likely mean leaving at least one of Nance, Fisher and the left-handed Fluharty off the roster when all three are pitching exceptionally well. It’s a good problem to have, one that will ultimately be resolved by health and matchups.
