For the third time in his career, Erik Karlsson seems on the verge of a move to a new NHL club.
It’s been a tumultuous run for the 35-year-old of late. Joining the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2023, fresh off a 101-point, Norris Trophy-winning season in San Jose, Karlsson was expected to link up with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to form a star-studded veteran core that could carry the black-and-gold back to the post-season. Instead, the club missed the playoffs two more times, the fit never seeming quite right for the future Hall of Famer.
Now, it seems another change may be coming. On July 1, Karlsson was paid his $5 million signing bonus by the Pens, making the financial side of a potential deal far more palatable for interested suitors. On July 10, the Pens acquired Matt Dumba, giving Pittsburgh more veteran, right-handed blue-line stars than a rebuilding club would seem to need. There’s still Karlsson’s $10-million cap hit to navigate, but the Penguins are able to retain a portion of that hit. There’s also the fact that the three-time Norris winner has a no-move clause — Karlsson is reportedly open to waiving it if the opportunity to join a contender arises, but he has control over his next chapter.
Recent results aside, there’s enough reason to believe the offensively gifted blue-liner still has plenty to offer. While the move to Pittsburgh hasn’t gone as planned — in part due to his own play and in part due to the state of the roster as a whole — Karlsson’s performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off likely turned a few heads around the league, as the veteran proved he can still be a difference-maker in the right situation.
That in mind, here’s a look at a few potential landing spots for the star rearguard, if Pittsburgh elects to move him:
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At this point, any conversation about a star on the move must begin with Vegas. As seen by the recent acquisition of Mitch Marner, the league’s youngest contender always finds a way to get in on the action, and remains ruthless in its pursuit of another championship. The fit might not have made a ton of sense here a few months ago, but the recent news that Alex Pietrangelo’s career has likely come to an end moves Vegas into the conversation. The blue-line stalwart’s departure leaves a significant hole on the right side of Vegas’s defence, with No. 7 having accounted for more than 22 minutes a night for the Golden Knights last season.
Should GM Kelly McCrimmon look to add another proven star to the right side, another veteran presence, Karlsson seems a likely target. Of course, the Pens defender profiles as a very different player compared to Pietrangelo, and the Golden Knights would have to be willing to stomach the defensive lapses for the sake of what Karlsson could bring offensively. But No. 65’s familiarity with Vegas’s core could help his case — Karlsson spent five seasons leading the Ottawa Senators alongside Vegas captain Mark Stone, and spent another five with Tomas Hertl in San Jose. On the financial side, Pittsburgh’s ability to retain salary, and the likelihood of Pietrangelo’s $8.8-million cap hit moving to LTIR, could help a deal come together.
The Canes’ desire to add more marquee talent to their lineup is well-documented, the club cycling through the Jake Guentzel and Mikko Rantanen sagas precisely because of that desire. GM Eric Tulsky has already brought in a few key reinforcements this off-season, signing star winger Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency, and bringing in K’Andre Miller to reshape the blue line. But like Vegas, Carolina enters 2025-26 with a notable hole on the right side, as longtime Canes defender Brent Burns moved on from the club this off-season, signing a one-year deal with the Colorado Avalanche.
Again, there are risks and rewards to Karlsson’s game that must be weighed, but for the Canes, it may be the potential of No. 65’s power-play prowess that moves the needle. Rod Brind’Amour’s squad had been searching for a solution to its man-advantage woes even before Burns’ departure — last season, it was Shayne Gostisbehere taking over from Burns and leading all Canes blue-liners in power-play time. The team finished 25th in the league on the man-advantage, so it’s surely still a work in progress. Should the club believe Karlsson could provide some help on that front, the Canes seem to have the cap space to make a deal work.
After a string of runs to the Cup Final, the Bolts have seen their days as a perennial contender slip from their grasp. For three straight years, the club has been bounced in the first round of the post-season, losing to the eventual champion Florida Panthers the last two. So far this off-season, GM Julien BriseBois has done little to improve his club’s chances in 2025-26, bringing in only depth pieces. Financially, Tampa Bay doesn’t have much room to operate, the Lightning sitting with limited cap space given Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel and Andre Vasilevskiy are all earning more than $9 million per year.
Still, there’s a key potential link here in terms of Tampa as a potential Karlsson suitor: Bolts captain Victor Hedman. If there was one bright spot for Karlsson last season, it was his sterling form at 4 Nations, leading Sweden through the tournament with his fellow Tre Kronor vet. The two didn’t pair together exclusively, but their history together for the national team is lengthy, and there are few who understand the strengths and weaknesses of Karlsson’s game as well as the Lightning stalwart. BriseBois has proven he has no fear of swinging big for a piece he feels his club needs — if the Lightning are looking to add more dynamic skill to their back end, and an opportunity to make the money work presents itself, might Karlsson be worth a dice-roll?
The Maple Leafs have been on the hunt for a marquee offensive talent to lead their blue line for years. The club took a step forward last season in terms of the composition of its defence corps, sending out by far the strongest group of the Auston Matthews era. But the blue-and-white still lack the type of back-end offensive punch the true contenders seem to boast, particularly on the power play — that anchoring playmaking talent who can link it all together when the club’s collection of star forwards heads over the boards.
Karlsson is far from the elite game-breaker he was in his prime, but the glimpses he’s shown over the past few years suggest he can still be useful in the right situation, with the right group around him. Could a season or two playing in a sheltered role among Toronto’s veteran defence corps, primarily quarterbacking the top power-play unit, move the needle for GM Brad Treliving’s squad? The Maple Leafs would have to move out some money to make such an addition work, likely requiring a trade that takes Morgan Rielly’s $7.5-million cap hit off the books. Still, in the wake of the club losing one of its most prolific playmakers in Mitch Marner, the Leafs’ current roster seems in need of more creative, dynamic skill. Perhaps Karlsson presents a short-term solution.
Ottawa Senators
Realistically, if Karlsson waives his no-move clause to make his way back to Ontario, it’s likely not to wear blue and white, but black and red. The four clubs above on this list all seem to be closer to the contender conversation — Vegas and Carolina squarely there, Tampa and Toronto sitting on the outside with enough talent to feasibly find their way back in. Ottawa is further back still. The Sens just made it back to the post-season for the first time in nearly a decade, and the 2025-26 campaign doesn’t figure to see a seismic leap forward in that regard — they remain a promising young group who will hope to make it to the dance, cause some chaos, and see where it takes them.
The question here is how Karlsson views this next chapter of his career. In Pittsburgh, he has a chance to play with some fellow future Hall of Famers in Crosby and Malkin, but with the playoffs remaining a long shot. If a bona fide contender comes calling, that surely seems worth a change of address, but unless it’s Florida — which has Aaron Ekblad, Seth Jones and Jeff Petry manning the right side next season — it’s tough to see a move that brings a surefire shot at a late-career Cup.
Perhaps Karlsson opts for the nostalgic move instead, going home to finish his career with the club that gave him his big-league start. After seven years in the dark, the young Sens have found some promise again — if there was ever a time for a reunion, it might be now. The former captain could provide Ottawa a much-needed offensive boost, could get another shot at post-season hockey himself, and down the line, could eventually hang up the dream where it all began, in a Senators sweater.
