On Saturday, Dec. 31, the Toronto Maple Leafs will play their last game of the 2022 calendar year; a year in which they had just about as much success as a team can have…while simultaneously leaving the vibe that the year wasn’t a success.
Here’s the Leafs in 2022, across two slightly different rosters, playoffs included:
RECORD: 59-25-11 (.679 points percentage, third-best in NHL)
GOALS/GAME: 3.76
GOALS AGAINST/GAME: 3.07
PP: 24.0%
PK: 80.3%
Leafs fans saw the puck drop on 95 games and their team get points in 70 of those, with a chance to win 60 times by beating Colorado Saturday. That’s a year many, or even most, fanbases would love to experience.
But we know success for Toronto now is determined by the post-season, and that their performance in seven of those 95 games (which included three wins) had the effect of dampening the enthusiasm about all the rest of that hockey.
As things sit right now, the Leafs are the third-best team in the NHL by points percentage in the 2022-23 season, having overcome a slow start to rip off yet another torrid November.
But knowing that whatever happens in those first four-to-seven games in April will define their 2023, some big questions loom about just how prepared they’ll be to have success in those biggest moments.
For Kyle Dubas and the Leafs, these five questions will define the next year, and how they’re set up to accomplish their goals both in April, and beyond.
Do they get serious now and push to catch the Bruins, or use the year to experiment with different lineups, D-pairs, and special teams combinations?
Don’t look now, but the Leafs are yet again on a crash course to play the Tampa Bay Lightning in the playoffs, a club that is almost certainly going to play in the 2/3 seed Atlantic series, miles behind Boston and sitting way ahead of the challengers below. The Bolts are currently rolling out Mikhail Sergachev on their PP1, just to see how that looks, and to prepare him if they need him in the post-season. But, as of a couple weeks ago, Jon Cooper said that’s still Victor Hedman’s spot come playoffs. They’re experimenting, trying to be prepared for everything the post-season may throw their way.
On the other hand, the Leafs have “experimented” with players up in the top-six, giving plenty of chances to see if anyone could grab the coveted opportunity. Nobody has so far, and so they’ve wasted games getting below expected-quality play from a left winger in their top-six.
And so, they probably need to make a decision soon: Do they constantly roll out their maximally optimized lines and pairs every night, or do they make a trade early – soon here – to fill that spot with true talent, so they can try to hunt down the Bruins, who are currently nine points ahead of them? Let’s not forget, there’s well over half the season left to play, and the Bruins could still trip up for a stretch of games along the way. Will the Leafs push for that one-seed, which will likely draw someone from this group in Round 1, rather than Tampa Bay or Boston:
Or will they simply go with Tampa’s motto that you just have to get in the playoffs to have a chance, give opportunities to young guys to see if anyone can surprise you, and try people in different spots all over the lineup all season?
Is this a thrilling chase of the Bruins or a coast to the finish line, waiting to rev up the engine for when the real race starts?
Will the team commit to Kyle Dubas with a new contract or not?
Whatever you think of Dubas, there’s no doubt he’s a hard worker who thinks creatively and has built a team that’s made consistent regular season winning ho-hum for years now. His contract expires at season’s end, and there would be no shortage of NHL teams that’d take the success the Leafs have had (combined with the hard lessons Dubas has learned in the post-season) as the future of their front office.
If Toronto doesn’t commit to him, is he free to trade multiple first-rounders/prospects/assets in the quest to have success Right Now?
Maybe it’s no big deal. Maybe it’s offensive enough to the GM that even if the team does have playoff success, he’ll still want to work elsewhere. Whatever you think of the job the man has done, this decision will shape the Leafs in the years to come, when the salary cap starts to climb, and the superstars need their second big contracts.
Will the Leafs commit to Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov this season (and beyond?)
There’s reason to keep an eye on Ilya Samsonov’s play for the Leafs. He makes $1.8 million this season and is an RFA next summer. If he shows he can be an NHL starter, it’s possible the Leafs could commit to him longer term, which would then mean they’ve got an expensive back-up, and could look to find a cheaper option there than Matt Murray’s nearly $5 million dollar deal through 2023-24. So there’s reason they might give the Russian netminder some room to prove he’s the guy.
But aside from that big picture thought (which could conceivably affect this season’s goalie deployment), who do they think will give them the best chance at a Stanley Cup this year? The older guy who’s done it or the younger guy with some pedigree? Both Murray and Samsonov played wildly above expectation in the early parts of their seasons with the Leafs. Of late, they’ve looked much, much (much) more human.
Going into the season, I was concerned about this position for the Leafs. Now I wonder: are their goalies going to be the ones they had for the first couple months of the season, or are they destined to be more of what they’ve been of late, which hasn’t been bad, but certainly wouldn’t make you comfortable in the playoffs?
The team just needs one of them to jump up and snag the crease. Maybe they want Murray to be the guy because he’s won before. Maybe they want it to be Samsonov so they can have a cheaper, younger starter in the years ahead. Maybe they don’t care and they just want one of them to stop pucks now so they can win a round.
Are they purusing the trade deadline menu for an entrée or side dishes?
What this question really boils down to is: are they going to keep Matthew Knies and hope he can help them (a 6-foot-3, 210-pound left winger who can score sounds appealing), or are they going to trade him for a more established, effective NHLer? For the record, Knies has 11 goals and 11 assists in 20 college games this year, third on University of Minnesota behind Jimmy Snuggerud and Logan Cooley.
Fans love to look at their prospects and overvalue what they’re likely to become. Knies will be a rookie with zero games of NHL experience learning on the fly, and the opportunity with the Leafs (based on roster holes) is way up the lineup, alongside John Tavares and Mitch Marner (or maybe in the playoffs, by Tavares and William Nylander). It’s a big ask, so you can see why if the goal is to win now (and it is, right?) they might want to cash in Knies for someone who they know can help today.
But there’s a chance he could do it and be a valued part of this team for years to come with no acquisition cost. The Leafs would get better, give up nothing for it, and gain a player who’s dirt cheap.
If they keep Knies, it’s unlikely they have enough capital to trade for a huge “entrée” type player (unless they’re fine trading more first round picks, which I suppose is possible). But Knies is at the heart of any decisions they’ll be making in the months ahead, so watch his development closely.
And finally,
Do they want to use the Jake Muzzin LTIR money on a D-man, or a left winger?
When Muzzin went down, there was a frenzy in Leafs nation about how you can replace Muzzin. Who can do what a healthy Muzzin does around the league – play physical and reliable, eat D-zone starts and PK minutes against stars – all for $5.6 million, and who’s giving guys like that up? (Hint: nobody.)
But as the games played out, a reality set in: the Leafs are better than expected on the back-end, as Timothy Liljegren has taken a clear step and become a useful everyday contributor, and Rasmus Sandin has overcome a slow start to put together an impressive first half.
Suddenly it became clearer that the big “need” for a very good Leafs team was some depth scoring. It’s an area that has historically handcuffed the Leafs as they’ve gotten into the post-season, teams have focused on their stars, and their output has slowed down. They’re still outside the league’s top-10 in goals for per game, and they could use an extra push.
But it’s no easy call. In the playoffs you’re going to need eight D-men to go deep, and sloughing off the need at the position because two small-ish defencemen have been good in the regular season might lack foresight. You’d like to get better all over the lineup, of course, but this isn’t fantasy sports – practical challenges are everywhere.
They’ve got the Muzzin money to spend, and other creative ways to add bigger contracts come the deadline (namely, by moving players and asking for salary retention). So what will they prioritize? Defending? Scoring? And will their goaltending hold up enough for this question to even matter?
These are tough questions, and most need an answer before the team even gets to their final exam.
Happy New Year everyone. Here’s to a great 2023 to all my fellow hockey fans out there.
