Barring a late-season collapse, the Toronto Maple Leafs are locked into the third spot in the Atlantic Division. That means they are staring down a first-round matchup against either the Boston Bruins or Florida Panthers. As of Monday, the Maple Leafs had a 59.8 per cent chance of drawing the Bruins, who lead the Panthers by one point in the division race. (Florida has one game in hand.)
Regardless of who the Maple Leafs’ opponent is when the playoffs start next month, they are in for a tough series. But is one more advantageous than the other from a purely analytical standpoint? Let’s take a look.
BRUINS
Shockingly, the Bruins are leading the NHL with 95 points. The retirements of future Hall of Famer Patrice Bergeron and steady hand David Krejci were supposed to derail Boston, but that has not been the case on the surface. (Fifteen overtime losses have certainly helped prop up the Bruins’ record.)
Under the hood, however, this is not the juggernaut that set league records with 65 wins and 135 points last season — specifically on the defensive end. The Bruins’ potential playoff opponents will look to exploit that. (The Maple Leafs average 3.58 actual goals and 3.55 expected goals per game, both of which rank third in the league.)
If not for Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, who have combined to save 31 goals above expected (second most in the league), the Bruins would not be where they are in the standings. Coach Jim Montgomery’s handling of his goaltenders in the playoffs will be under harsh scrutiny after Ullmark wilted during the Bruins’ first-round loss to the Panthers last year.
“I’m not going to commit to anything, but I am very comfortable platooning them in the playoffs,” Montgomery told reporters Sunday.
One thing that has not changed for the Bruins is their level of physicality. They win more puck battles (29.6 per game) than any other team. That toughness was on display earlier this month when the Bruins defeated the Maple Leafs twice in four days.
PANTHERS
Toronto fans wanted Florida in the second round last year. Then they got Florida, and it was not pretty.
The bad news for the Maple Leafs (and the rest of the league) is that the Panthers are the definition of a wagon this season, ranking second in expected goals against (2.61) and fifth in expected goals for (3.38) per game.
The Panthers are not fancy offensively, dumping in the puck a league-high 53.7 per cent of the time. They pressure opponents into making mistakes, scoring 33 goals within five seconds of a turnover (tied for sixth best).
Toronto experienced that in its second-round series last season; Florida scored twice within five seconds of a turnover and six times within 10 seconds of a turnover over five games.
Experts at burrowing under opponents’ skin, the Panthers are tied for fifth in power-play opportunities, and their top unit is one of the best. Since the all-star break, the combination of Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Brandon Montour has scored 15 goals — most among all power-play units over that span. (Toronto’s penalty kill is at 75 per cent in 19 games since its bye week ended.)
As crazy as it might sound, the Bruins appear to be the “better” first-round opponent for the Maple Leafs. The Panthers do not have any obvious weaknesses.
All stats via Sportlogiq
