The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week are the following:
- With 1,000 out of the way, McDavid begins the pursuit of 2,000 points
- Binnington a risky bet for Canada
- Why is Jason Robertson struggling?
- Is this the year Gibson finally gets traded?
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
It didn’t take long for Connor McDavid to take care of business Thursday night. He needed just a single point to reach 1,000 against the Nashville Predators. McDavid buried a goal early in the second period to set the mark, before setting up the overtime winner for good measure. It would’ve been a great story if his chase for 1,000 continued into Saturday for Hockey Night in Canada against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but I’m sure the last thing McDavid wanted to do was answer questions about it for another two days. His focus this season is on a team trophy and not individual milestones.
Now that point 1,000 is in the books for McDavid, the race for 2,000 begins.
The Edmonton Oilers superstar became the fourth fastest to reach the milestone, doing so in 659 games, just a few games behind Mike Bossy. The only other players to reach 1,000 points faster than McDavid are Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux, which is some elite company. He deserves to be mentioned with those greats and even though 2,000 points seems almost unfathomable, it’s actually a very realistic possibility for McDavid.
As good as McDavid is, let’s make one thing perfectly clear, everyone is playing for second on the all-time scoring list. McDavid would still need another 1,856 points to catch Gretzky and would probably have to play until he’s about 50 to get there. That really puts into perspective how dominant someone like Gretzky was and that he owns one of the most incredible and under-highlighted stats of all time. Even if you took away every single one of Gretzky’s goals, he’d still be the league’s all-time leading scorer if you just counted his assists.
Jaromir Jagr who ranks second all-time in scoring with 1,921 points is a more attainable target. McDavid is still just 27 years old, so that means even if he plays just another 10 years and averages 92 points per season, he’ll catch Jagr. Certainly not easy but far from impossible. Obviously, a lot of that will depend on how McDavid ages and if he can stay healthy, but someone like Sidney Crosby, who is 37, has recorded 93 and 94 points respectively in the past two campaigns. McDavid could certainly do it.
A number like 92 points is also a very conservative estimate for someone like McDavid in the next five years or so. He’s averaged 143 points over the past four seasons and totalled 513 points over that stretch. That’s well over half the amount needed to pass Jagr and get to 2,000. Maybe McDavid’s game will regress at some point as he gets to his mid-thirties, but it’s hard to envision a massive drop-off in the foreseeable future. That means he’ll probably bank enough points over the next three or four years to give him some breathing room as he ages and account for some regression.
One other important thing that will aid McDavid’s pursuit of 2,000 points is that he’s going to get to chase it alongside Leon Draisaitl, a top-five player in the world. Draisaitl is locked in with the Oilers long term and the pair are a duo that simply can’t be stopped. Anyone who is near the top of the all-time scoring list had elite players by their side for several years. Lemieux and Jagr, Gretzky and Mark Messier, just to name a few. McDavid is incredible all by himself, but having Draisaitl is only going to help him stockpile points.
There are a number of ways to illustrate McDavid’s greatness, but one of the best is to compare him to his peers. The aforementioned Draisaitl is still well over 100 points away from the 1,000-mark despite playing 77 more games than McDavid. Nikita Kucherov is only closing in on 900 points in 740 games, while Nathan MacKinnon may very well get there this season, but he’s played almost 150 more games than McDavid.
There’s nothing quite as captivating in sports as watching the chase of a record or major milestone. We’re witnessing Alexander Ovechkin do just that right now when it comes to Gretzky’s goal record and if McDavid eventually closes in on 2,000 points it’s going to be just as riveting.
To some, reaching 2,000 points may seem impossible. But with McDavid, it feels inevitable.
Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues
For the longest time, Team Canada has had an embarrassment of riches between the pipes in international play. From Dryden to Fuhr to Roy to Brodeur to Luongo to Price, it was a position Canada never had to worry about. Now it’s the thinnest.
Not only is it no longer a position of strength, but they’ve been passed by miles by other countries heading to the 4 Nations Face-Off. Sweden will lean on Linus Ullmark and Jacob Markstrom, with Filip Gustavsson also an option. Finland can turn to Juuse Saros, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is developing into a solid goaltender as well. Not to mention the United States, who suddenly have a surplus of options and aren’t even feeling the loss of Thatcher Demko to injury. They can comfortably take Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck and Jeremy Swayman, and someone like Anthony Stolarz, who is having a great season, won’t even make the cut.
Canada, on the other hand, is going to have to wade through a bunch of options they can’t realistically have much confidence in. Jordan Binnington has come to the forefront of the group, more by default than by his play on the ice. He owns an .886 save percentage this season, hasn’t played a playoff game in two years and hasn’t looked anything like the goalie who carried the Blues to a Stanley Cup in 2019.
That Cup run, even though it came six years ago, is what’s propelling Binnington to the top of the list right now, and maybe rightfully so. The 31-year-old rescued St. Louis from the bottom of the standings that season, going 24-5-1 down the stretch with a .927 save percentage and then followed that up with a .914 in the playoffs to lead the Blues to a championship. That’s not something that Blues and Team Canada general manager Doug Armstrong is going to forget.
It’s not that Binnington has been dreadful since capturing the Cup, just very inconsistent. His numbers had been steadily declining until last season when he won 28 games and posted a .913 save percentage. Binnington also ranked fifth overall in goals saved above expected in 2023-24 with 16.5. It was a great season and put him on everyone’s radar once again. This year, though, he’s plummeted to 60th in goals saved above expected and looks like at best an average goalie right now.
However, what Binnington has going for him is a lack of other worthy options for Canada to choose from. There’s fellow Cup winner Adin Hill, but he has a save percentage worse than Binnington’s and hasn’t even played 150 NHL games. Stuart Skinner could be an option, but after making it to within one victory of the Stanley Cup last summer, he’s started slow and comes full of question marks. Maybe you see value in a talented goalie on a weaker team like MacKenzie Blackwood or Samuel Montembeault, but neither netminder has ever even played a playoff game in the NHL. Dropping them into a best-on-best scenario is fairly risky.
The biggest challenger to Binnington landing the number one job might be Logan Thompson. He’s started hot out of the gates at 7-0-1 and looks great for a rejuvenated Washington Capitals squad. Going with the hot hand would make sense, but the problem is that rosters have to be submitted by December 2nd and goaltending is a very volatile position. You’d probably have an easier time tracking down D.B. Cooper than trying to figure out how well Thompson, or any goalie for that matter, is going to be playing three months from now.
Binnington has also not had a strong team in front of him for several years now and no doubt that has contributed to some of his mediocre numbers in recent campaigns. Even if they aren’t as solid in goal, Canada is still going to have an incredible forward group and good defence corps to help him out. Given he has the most experience and best track record of all the legitimate options available, Binnington probably gives Canada the best chance to win.
The 4 Nations Face-Off is going to be a short tournament even for the winner. It’s a three-game round-robin followed by the championship game for the two teams with the most points. Binnington doesn’t need to play well for a season, several months or even a seven-game series. Canada is going to need him to catch lightning in a bottle and turn back the clock for hopefully four games.
Binnington is far from an ideal option, he’s just Canada’s best bet right now.
Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars
Social media was abuzz Monday night when the Dallas Stars scored six times in the first period against the Pittsburgh Penguins, en route to a 7-1 victory. One player, though, was noticeably absent on the scoresheet.
Jason Robertson finally picked up his first point in five games Thursday, hasn’t scored in his past seven and is on pace for only 44 points on the season. That’s a titanic drop-off for a player of Robertson’s calibre, especially when you consider it was just two years ago when he easily topped 100 points.
Robertson’s regression actually started last season, when he went from 109 points down to 80. That was mainly because he scored 46 times in 2022-23 and only 29 last year, and there isn’t really an obvious reason as to why. His shooting percentage did drop slightly from 14.7 to 12.6 per cent, but that’s not drastic enough to account for the significant fall in offence. It’s down even further this year to 11.1 per cent, though again, there’s no reason his numbers should be plummeting.
If you look at Robertson’s ice time, it’s another area that hasn’t really changed. He’s been between 18 and 19 minutes on average per night for the past four seasons with little fluctuation. Robertson is still getting plenty of opportunities on the top line and number one power play unit, prime spots for him to pile up points.
One thing that has been a change for Robertson is the retirement of Joe Pavelski. Robertson played mainly with Roope Hintz and Pavelski for the past few seasons and definitely got comfortable playing with the veteran. This season it’s been more of a rotating door at that spot, with Robertson himself even being shuffled down the lineup here and there as well. Logan Stankoven, who has been excellent, and Evgenii Dadonov have been the two to fill Pavelski’s spot most frequently and it might simply be a case of Robertson needing more time to get used to a new line combination.
Perhaps the most glaring change in Robertson’s game, though, is his shot volume. When he had that 109-point campaign, Robertson posted 313 shots, 82 more than his next-best season with the Stars, which came last year at 231. He’s on an even slower pace this year, trending for 213. So, even though Robertson’s shooting percentages haven’t changed much, the massive fall in shot volume could account for his goal and point totals dropping substantially.
The more you look at it, the more that 2022-23 season looks like an anomaly for Robertson. Unless he really increases his shot volume once again, the expectations for Robertson should be closer to 80 points than 100. He’s still a great player, maybe just not an elite one.
There are very few guarantees in life, but John Gibson trade rumours at the start of every season are one of them.
It seems like Gibson’s name has been on the block for the past three or four years, with a deal yet to take shape. There are a couple of obvious reasons for that, with Gibson’s play being the first. The Anaheim Ducks goaltender used to be one of the league’s finest, though he’s failed to finish with a save percentage above .904 since 2018-19. Part of that is due to the Ducks being such a poor team over that span and not giving Gibson much help, but some other netminders have been able to overcome that. Lukas Dostal has been excellent this season with a .922 save percentage and Anthony Stolarz also posted a .917 with Anaheim a few years back.
The second issue is Gibson’s $6.4M cap hit, which becomes a little more palatable now that only two years are left after this one, and even more so if the Ducks retain some salary. Even still, that isn’t easy for most teams to absorb and they would have to be reasonably confident Gibson could still play at a high level and stay healthy to take on his contract.
Let’s also keep in mind Gibson has a 10-team no-trade clause, making any deal even trickier for Anaheim to navigate and the list of goalie-needy teams is slim. Any rebuilding or non-playoff team is likely out because it wouldn’t make sense to give up assets for someone like Gibson at this point. That leaves only a select few teams as options where there could be a fit.
Would the Pittsburgh Penguins be interested? It’s possible, but an unlucky match. The Pens continue to double down on this group and although goaltending has been an issue, they have limited cap space to make it work. They would need the Ducks to probably take Tristan Jarry back in return, something Anaheim shouldn’t be interested in given his play, hefty contract and the emergence of Dostal.
Detroit could be an option, but the Red Wings don’t seem that close to contending and all the while, Cam Talbot has actually been quite solid for them this season and he comes a lot cheaper than Gibson. Maybe if they could offload Ville Husso’s contract in the process they’d consider it, but Detroit has more issues than just goaltending. Their blue line is thin and putting Gibson into that situation wouldn’t be a wise investment.
The team that makes the most sense to me is the Colorado Avalanche. They’re Cup contenders but goaltending has been a weak spot for them over the last couple of years. Alexandar Georgiev has really struggled and although he’s improved a little lately, I wouldn’t be comfortable potentially wasting a year of prime Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar due to bad goaltending. If the Ducks took Georgiev, who has just one year left on his contract, back in a deal and ate some money they might be able to make it work. At the very least, Gibson would be a decent upgrade on what they have and he’d probably be motivated playing on a team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations.
For a deal to happen, though, Gibson is going to have to string together at least a good stretch of solid play to make an acquiring team a believer. He’s off to a good start with a strong first outing. Maybe he won’t regain the form he had earlier in his career, but Gibson can still give hope to a team that needs rescuing between the pipes.
