This week’s Friday Four focuses on some players who need a bounce-back season to help their teams reach the playoffs:
• The pressure is on Tage Thompson and the Sabres to end their playoff drought
• Can Timo Meier avoid another slow start?
• The spotlight is now on Matty Beniers in Seattle
• Will Tim Stutzle prove last year was just an anomaly?
Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres
The last time the Buffalo Sabres made the playoffs, Game of Thrones had just begun its first season, Barack Obama was still president and Lindy Ruff, who is back behind the bench now after a decade-long sabbatical that included stops in Dallas, New York and New Jersey, was the head coach. In fact, the only player still playing in the NHL from that 2010-11 Sabres squad is Tyler Myers.
There is arguably no franchise or fanbase that needs to make the playoffs more this season than Buffalo and much of the pressure to make that happen will fall squarely on the shoulders of Tage Thompson. That’s what comes with expectations and Thompson set those sky-high in 2022-23. He fell just short of 50 goals and 100 points that year, leaving Sabres fans and many around the league thinking Thompson could be the NHL’s next superstar talent.
The 2023-24 campaign changed those perceptions drastically, though, and saying it was a season to forget for Thompson would be putting it mildly. The Sabres forward saw his goals drop by 18, points drop by 38 and shots drop by almost 50 from the year prior. He wasn’t the only reason Buffalo took a major step backward, but he was probably the biggest.
Buffalo desperately needs the Thompson of two years ago to return. Jack Eichel is gone and even though the Sabres are stocked with young talent, when Thompson is at his best he can take this team to another level and is their best chance to step into the role of a superstar. Newly crowned captain Rasmus Dahlin is a great all-around player and a huge piece of the Sabres core, but he can’t impact the scoresheet like Thompson can. Goals are the hardest thing to find in the NHL and when Thompson is on his game, he provides them in abundance.
There are other reasons Buffalo needs a significant bounce back from Thompson. For one, despite the Sabres being stocked with promising talent at forward, a lot of that is on the wing. Dylan Cozens is a solid centre, but he also regressed last season. When he scored 31 goals and 68 points two years ago, it came with a bit of an inflated shooting percentage. I think Cozens could develop into a solid two-way player, though I’d bet he’s more of a 20-goal and 50-point player compared to what he showed in 2022-23. It’s hard to win without depth down the middle and without Thompson playing at a high level, Buffalo looks pretty ordinary in that department.
It also can’t be overstated how young and inexperienced some of the Sabres’ key pieces up front are. Players like Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich and to a lesser extent, JJ Peterka, still have a lot of developing to do. The hope for Buffalo is at least a few of them make meaningful contributions in 2024-25, but it’s far from a guarantee that they will. Thompson regaining his form would go a long way in taking some of the pressure off that group and he could be a catalyst in getting some of them going if they play with him in the top six or on the power play.
Then there’s the matter of goaltending. The Sabres received great contributions from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen last year, who was probably the only reason Buffalo remained in the playoff conversation as long as they did. That said, we know how erratic goaltending can be from year to year and the season prior Luukkonen struggled mightily, posting a .891 save percentage. It’s hard to predict what version of Luukkonen you’re going to get this season, but if I was a betting man, I’d guess Buffalo might need more goal-scoring from Thompson to compensate for a little regression between the pipes. And even if Luukkonen is solid once again, the Sabres aren’t exactly built to win 2-1 with regularity.
That brings us to the power play, where the Sabres ranked a dreadful 29th a season ago. A large part of that was Thompson recording just nine goals with the man advantage when he had 20 power play markers in 2022-23. His total points on the power play also went from 34 to 18, a drop of nearly 50 per cent. A strong power play is critical to reaching the post-season, as only one team that made the playoffs last year, the Winnipeg Jets, ranked outside the top 20 in power-play efficiency. Thompson piling up the points on the man advantage again should help the Sabres get back to a top-15 power play and greatly improve Buffalo’s chances of ending its playoff drought.
The theme of this year’s Sabres team may as well be what’s old is new again. Ruff is back at the helm, the goathead jersey from their run to the Stanley Cup Final is returning for a handful of games and most importantly to Sabres fans, is the hope that Thompson can recapture his form. He’s clearly the straw that stirs the drink in Buffalo, and it’s hard to imagine the Sabres playing past game 82 without Thompson turning back the clock to 2022-23.
Timo Meier, New Jersey Devils
Say what you will about Sheldon Keefe and his playoff shortcomings in Toronto, but there’s no denying he unlocked something in the likes of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner to take their games to another gear. Now in New Jersey, Keefe will be tasked with the same assignment when it comes to Timo Meier.
It would be unfair to characterize Meier’s first full campaign with the Devils as disappointing, but he certainly hasn’t been the player in New Jersey as he was in San Jose. Meier’s struggles last season mostly came from a slow start. He tallied 39 of his 52 points after Jan. 1 and really hit a wall in December, when he went on a nine-game pointless streak and totalled just four points for the month. Meier came on in the second half, but it was too little too late to salvage New Jersey’s post-season hopes. It was a shocking development for a team that catapulted up the standings the year prior and even won a playoff round.
A healthy Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton will help the Devils get back on track as well, but this team needs more consistency from Meier to be a true contender. That’s where Keefe can help. The new Devils coach was known for stacking his top six in Toronto and he appears to be at it again, uniting Meier, Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes as the top line during the pre-season. All three have the potential to score over a point per game and together could be a nightmare for the opposition to handle.
Meier should also see an increase in minutes under Keefe. The former Sharks forward was averaging well over 19 minutes per game during his final three seasons in San Jose, but has averaged around 17:40 with New Jersey. If that top line stays together, I’d bet Meier is closer to 20 minutes a night in 2024-25.
Another sign that Meier was off his game last season was a lack of physicality. Meier averaged more than two hits per game during his final three seasons in San Jose, but just 1.6 per game last season with the Devils. When he’s engaged physically, Meier is most effective and creates more room for his linemates. If he can take the body more regularly this season, Bratt and Hughes will certainly be able to take advantage of that extra time and space.
The Devils might be able to get back to the playoffs without Meier at the top of his game, but if he’s clicking on all cylinders, New Jersey could be a force to be reckoned with in the East.
Matty Beniers, Seattle Kraken
Despite going through quite a sophomore slump, Matty Beniers got paid this off-season.
Even though he’s played just two full seasons and barely has 40 goals, the Kraken have made a lucrative bet on Beniers and rightfully so. He’s a No. 2 overall pick and dazzled in his first full season, notching nearly 25 goals and 60 points. That’s why last year’s numbers were so perplexing. Beniers fell off drastically and that’s probably in no small part why Seattle missed the playoffs.
In return for Seattle’s investment, the expectations around Beniers have certainly been raised. It’s harder to justify not making an impact when you’re earning more than $7 million per season, even if you still have some learning and development to do.
For Beniers to make more of a splash this season, he needs an increase in ice time. He’s averaged under 18 minutes per night over the past two seasons, which isn’t enough for a No. 1 centre. Beniers could see an uptick in minutes thanks to a coaching change, as Dan Bylsma takes over from Dave Hakstol. It felt like Hakstol was hesitant to trust younger players at times, but Bylsma doesn’t have that track record. He was in Pittsburgh when Sidney Crosby was a young player and while I’m not comparing Beniers to Crosby, it’s fair to point out Crosby had the four largest average ice times by season of his career (21:57, 21:57, 21:55, 21:58) under Bylsma. Maybe Beniers doesn’t flirt with 22 minutes a night this year, but I’d bet he’s closer to 20 than he will be to 18.
Byslma is coming from the AHL where he coached the likes of Shane Wright and some other young Kraken players, so there should be more trust in leaning on inexperienced talent.
It’s also worth noting the impact Chandler Stephenson could make. Stephenson will likely get the bulk of the tough matchups, which should free up Beniers for more favourable offensive opportunities that he can take advantage of.
Beniers could very well be in the best position he’s been in during his young career for a breakout season and if he doesn’t get there, at 21 years old, it won’t be the end of the world. It just may put a huge damper on Seattle’s playoff hopes.
Tim Stutzle, Ottawa Senators
When Tim Stutzle was hit by Arber Xhekaj earlier this week, Ottawa Senators fans feared the worst. It appears Stutzle escaped serious injury, though, and now the focus will turn to if he can get his game back on track.
Stutzle isn’t coming off a terrible season, just well below the standard he set the year prior. He was a 90-point player and near 40-goal scorer in 2022-23, but managed just 70 points last year and fell short of 20 goals. Stutzle’s shots and hits were down as well, as he looked nowhere near as dominant as he did during his breakout campaign. Part of the struggles should be attributed to a low shooting percentage of 9.4, which was well below his career average of 12.9 per cent. So, there’s reason for optimism that Stutzle’s shooting percentage will normalize and the offence should tick back up.
There’s also an added importance for Stutzle to play at an elite level again as it relates to Ottawa’s centre depth. Claude Giroux is turning 37 this season and is probably better suited as a winger at this point in his career. Shane Pinto feels destined for a middle-six role. And Josh Norris is still in the mix of course, but he’s had a tough time staying healthy. Relying on him for significant contributions seems risky.
It would definitely make the Sens a lot more comfortable if Stutzle could erase any questions from his game and simply morph back into the bona fide, undisputed top centre he looked like in 2022-23. Everyone slots a little bit better into the lineup when the top of the depth chart is taken care of. If Stutzle proves last year was just an anomaly, there’s a very real chance we’ll be seeing the Sens finally return to the post-season.
