The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:
- Should Team Canada take Evan Bouchard for the Four Nations Face-Off?
- Why it doesn’t make sense for the Rangers to trade Chris Kreider
- David Pastrnak’s scoring slump
- Macklin Celebrini accelerating San Jose’s rebuild
Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers
Out of all the options debated for Team Canada’s roster at the Four Nations Face-Off, there is perhaps no player more polarizing than Evan Bouchard.
The Edmonton Oilers defender has his supporters and detractors, as his game may best be described as a roller coaster ride of highlight-reel plays and frustrating mistakes. When he’s on, you could easily see how someone like Bouchard with his offensive acumen could benefit Team Canada, but the mistakes and gaffes, depending on when they happen, can be equally as costly.
First, the good. Bouchard is unquestionably one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL. Dating back to the 2022-23 post-season, when he really broke out, he has totalled 146 points in 140 regular season and playoff games. That’s elite offensive production and very few blue-liners in the world can match Bouchard’s ability to move the puck out of his own zone and overall skillset.
Bouchard can also quarterback a top power play. Even if they aren’t necessarily showing it right now, the Oilers have proven to have an elite man advantage in recent years, finishing fourth overall in that department a year ago and first in 2022-23 with a whopping success rating of 32.4 per cent. The 25-year-old Bouchard brings a unique talent to the power play in that he has a great slap shot, which has become somewhat of a lost art. It’s easy to point to Connor McDavid flying around the offensive zone, Leon Draisaitl’s ability to finish from impossible angles and Zach Hyman creating chaos in front of the net as drivers of the power play, but Bouchard forces the opposition to respect his shot, opening up space for everyone else.
It’s also important that Bouchard is used to and can excel playing with high-end talent. It seems like an obvious thing that anyone should be able to play with great players, but that isn’t always the case. Not only do you have to play at a fast pace, but you also have to think about the game very quickly as well. Skating with McDavid is the best crash course to learning to play with superstar players, something Bouchard is comfortable with. He clearly wouldn’t be overwhelmed by the speed and talent of Team Canada or its opponents.
Continuity could be really crucial, too. There’s a good chance that in addition to McDavid, Hyman will also be named to the team. Things like breaking the puck out of your zone can be made a lot simpler when you’re used to playing with the same teammates. Bouchard may have an edge in that department compared to some other blue-liners if he’s playing with a pair of forwards he’s been skating with for years.
Now let’s look at some of the arguments for leaving Bouchard off the roster, with the most notable being how he manages the puck. Bouchard has committed the 14th most turnovers in the entire NHL this season with 35, which on the surface is glaring. That said, some people will argue total turnovers in a vacuum isn’t the most clear statistic, as the law of averages would indicate players who have the puck and play more, in theory, have a higher chance to turn the puck over more frequently. Great players like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and David Pastrnak have actually committed more turnovers than Bouchard this season and no one is going to be campaigning that MacKinnon and Makar shouldn’t have been named to Team Canada.
What’s important about turnovers is context and more specifically, when and where. Let’s go back a couple of weeks to that great game between the Oilers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on Hockey Night in Canada. Edmonton led Toronto 2-1 with under seven minutes left in the third period when Bouchard inexplicably turned the puck over in his own zone, leading to the tying goal from Matthew Knies.
Bouchard seemingly had a safe play off the boards and out, but instead, he tried to fire it across the middle of the ice at hip height and the puck hit McDavid, before landing right on the stick of Knies in the slot. The when was late in the game with a one-goal lead and the where was in front of his own net, which are probably the two worst characteristics of a turnover. That would’ve been a bad decision by Bouchard at any time, but it was compounded by the score and time left in the game.
Now let’s look at the go-ahead goal by Bobby McMann from that same game, where another issue comes up from Bouchard.
As you can see, Bouchard gets way too casual and he’s nowhere near desperate enough to get the puck. He either assumes Mattias Ekholm will get to it first or Stuart Skinner has enough time to come out and play it, and we all know what happens when you assume. Bouchard watches McMann accelerate by everyone and roof it into the back of the net. These types of mistakes often fade away and get absorbed over the course of a long 82-game season, but the Four Nations Face-Off is only a maximum of four games. Every misstep will be magnified and one bad decision could cost your team everything.
What actually might end up working against Bouchard the most is not the fact that he could be a defensive liability, but rather that he probably won’t be quarterbacking the first power play unit. That job should be going to Makar, so if Bouchard isn’t needed for the bulk of the power play time, there may be other defence-first blueliners that could bring more value.
If I had a say in picking Team Canada, (and those that have seen me make numerous questionable roster decisions over the years as a fantasy hockey general manager will be thankful I don’t) I would take Bouchard but just use him selectively. Somewhat like Canada did at the 2014 Olympics in Sochi with P.K. Subban. Play Bouchard if you’re down a goal or two and need an offensive spark, start him on faceoffs in the offensive zone and let him run the second power-play unit. Don’t play him if you’re protecting a lead in the third period or against the opposition’s top lines.
Bouchard can be an asset if used properly. You just have to accentuate the positives and mask the negatives.
Chris Kreider, New York Rangers
Reports of a potential New York Rangers roster shakeup had social media abuzz this week, mainly because one of the names thrown out there was Chris Kreider.
The other name that was tossed about was Jacob Trouba. That makes more sense given there were rumours the Rangers were looking to move him in the off-season and clearing his $8 million cap hit would be very beneficial to New York. But Kreider is a bit more puzzling when you consider his production, cost and what he’s meant to the franchise.
Kreider has posted 52, 36 and 39 goals respectively in the past three seasons and he’s recorded at least 75 points in two of the past three campaigns. He’s also on pace for 39 goals again this year. Kreider, the longest-serving player on the Rangers, has been a vital part of some post-season runs, elevating his game when it matters most with 48 goals in 123 playoff games. The regular season is definitely important, but this Rangers group should be focused on taking that final step in the playoffs and Kreider has proven he can help do that.
The 33-year-old is also on a very reasonable deal given his production. Kreider is on the books for $6.5 million for another two seasons after this one, which seems like great value for a 35-plus goal scorer. Sure, you could look at his age and the fact that the Rangers still need to free up some money for extensions for Igor Shesterkin and K’Andre Miller, but the Rangers will be hard-pressed to replace Kreider’s scoring in the lineup elsewhere on a cheaper deal.
Finally, Kreider means a lot to the Rangers overall. At the end of the year, he’ll likely be close to the top-five all-time in games played for the franchise and he has a chance to move into second place in goals in team history with another solid season. He currently sits just three goals behind Camille Henry for most power play markers in Rangers history. Plus, if New York does end up moving Trouba, Kreider would be the perfect fit to replace him as captain.
There’s no denying the Rangers haven’t been at their best of late, losing four straight games that included a particularly bad trip through Alberta. New York gave up almost 90 shots in two games against the Oilers and Calgary Flames and was badly outplayed in both contests. For his part, Kreider has just one goal in six outings and you could argue he hasn’t been at his best recently either, but it would be hasty to make a rash decision over a recent cold stretch.
Maybe the Rangers are just hoping to get the attention of their roster as opposed to actually being serious about moving Kreider. New York will ultimately be a lot better with Kreider than without him.
David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
There’s been plenty of blame to go around for Boston’s shortcomings this season.
Jim Montgomery was the fall guy, Jeremy Swayman started slow and free-agent acquisitions Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov haven’t panned out yet. That leaves very few fingers left for pointing, but one should probably be zeroed in on David Pastrnak.
The Bruins sniper has carried the Bruins’ offence for years, though not so much this season. Pastrnak has eight goals this season but just two in the past 15 games, putting him on pace for only 27 over the full season. That’s a huge drop off from the 54 he’s averaged over the past two campaigns, including 61 goals scored two years ago. It’s definitely a concerning development if you’re hoping for a Bruins turnaround, but there is some reason for optimism, too.
A big reason to believe Pastrnak can start finding the back of the net again is his shooting percentage. He’s shooting at 8.6 per cent right now, which is the lowest of his career and well below his career average of 13.7 per cent. That is going to regress positively at some point, especially if he keeps shooting as much as he is. Pastrnak is currently leading the league in shots on goal with 93, which would put him on pace to get around 320 for the season. That number is very sustainable as Pastrnak has even gone north of 400 shots in the past. Eventually, the puck is going to start going in for him.
Where I would be concerned about Pastrnak is related to the talent around him. The Bruins are very thin at forward and, as mentioned earlier, Lindholm hasn’t been able to make any meaningful contributions so far. He’s only on pace for 44 points this season and isn’t helping Pastrnak at even strength or on the power play.
Pavel Zacha is another teammate not producing at his expected level. He’s trending towards only a 34-point season after clicking so well with Pastrnak a year ago. Zacha and Pastrnak were paired together for most of 2023-24 and Zacha collected 21 goals and 59 points. Not phenomenal numbers by any means, but he was at least able to provide Pastrnak with something serviceable to work with.
The other big issue for the Bruins is their 32nd-ranked power play. Boston’s numbers with the man advantage have plummeted this season and they simply aren’t generating anywhere near enough chances. Now this is probably a chicken and egg situation, because if Pastrnak, Zacha and Lindholm’s production increases, the power play numbers will get better as well.
Ultimately, I think Pastrnak’s production will come back up sooner rather than later. I don’t think his shooting percentage will continue to be this poor and while Zacha and Lindholm might not end up being impact players, both aren’t as bad as they’ve shown so far. The question is, can Pastrnak turn it on quickly enough to keep the Bruins in the playoff chase? He’s running out of time.
Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks
Macklin Celebrini has arrived.
For the first time in several years, there is real optimism in San Jose thanks to the rookie’s play of late. Celebrini has 11 points in 13 games this season, including seven in his past six contests. He’s averaging more than 20 minutes per game this month and doesn’t look out of place as a No. 1 centre. After 25 games this season the Sharks still only have 19 points, but that’s five more than they had at this time last year.
Give the Sharks credit for putting Celebrini in a good position to succeed. They brought in Alex Wennberg this past summer to add to their centre depth ahead of Mikael Granlund and Nico Sturm. Those veterans can help alleviate some of the pressure off of Celebrini by facing the opposition’s top lines or simply eating up some extra minutes so the rookie doesn’t get overtaxed.
The addition of Tyler Toffoli has given Celebrini some more talent on the wing. A former Stanley Cup winner who knows how to score consistently, Toffoli is helping to make things easier for Celebrini.
Celebrini isn’t the only young talent having success in San Jose. William Eklund, Fabian Zetterlund and Will Smith are all growing together with Celebrini. Add in that they have a high-end prospect in goal in the promising Yaroslav Askarov, and the Sharks have begun to form a solid foundation of talent.
That foundation appears to be more solid than two other teams that recently picked first overall: the Chicago Blackhawks and Montreal Canadiens. Things have been very challenging for Connor Bedard in Year 2 and while I don’t think anyone out there would contend they’d rather have Celebrini over Bedard, you could make an argument that San Jose has done a better job than Chicago has at setting up their young superstar to thrive. It even feels like the Canadiens, who rewarded Juraj Slafkovsky with a big contract in the summer, have taken a step backward and probably aren’t necessarily feeling as positive about themselves as the Sharks are at the moment.
It’s probably too early to say the Sharks have leapfrogged either of these teams in their rebuilds, but there’s no denying they are moving in the right direction. Celebrini is the biggest reason the light at the end of the tunnel has gotten a bit brighter in San Jose.
