In the NHL, as in life, things do not always go as planned.
For example, the Pittsburgh Penguins missed the playoffs by three points last season. They then ran back basically the same star-laden team, added some additional pieces in hopes of getting back to the playoffs, yet find themselves just a breath out of dead stinkin’ last in the East. The Seattle Kraken did something similar, signing Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour (for many, many dollars) to push them over the hump, but they’re no better than last year. It happens.
But with the insane amount of parity in the NHL this season, there’s been a new twist on “things don’t always go as planned” for a few teams: some saw this as a rebuild, retool, recalibrate year, but they’ve suddenly got a shot to make the playoffs with just 30 games to go.
This group fascinates me.
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Real Kyper and Bourne
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To understand how they exist, you’ve just got to look at the cluster of teams within four points of the Eastern Conference wild card spot. You’ve got a few tiers of teams in that group.
First, you’ve got the teams that have clearly been a disappointment. That would be the New York Rangers, who won last season’s Presidents’ Trophy, yet only recently battled back above .500. That would also be the Boston Bruins, who last season had 109 points, yet wake up Wednesday morning ninth in the East by points percentage. They’ve opened the door for everyone else.
Then you’ve got the teams that expected to be in the fight, but haven’t taken a step (and in fact, have tripped on their own skate laces). Detroit finished the 2023-24 season tied for the final playoff spot with 91 points, and this season find themselves on pace for…a whopping 87. Last year the Islanders were one of two teams to make the post-season with a negative goal differential, then they did absolutely nothing in the off-season and, weird, they’re on pace to finish with about the same goal differential, just well outside the playoffs this time.
Which leaves the “Wait, we’re in the playoff race??” teams.
Let’s go through the four of them – five if you stretch the definition – and evaluate what the heck they should do with this surprising opportunity.
The Calgary Flames
No team embodies this better than the Flames. They had just recently moved on from Jacob Markstrom and Andrew Mangiapane, clearly signalling a transition and a new chapter for the C of Red. They made way for the young guys, hoping for them to gain valuable experience, likely with the intent of selling off a few pieces at the deadline. But lo, they find themselves peering into February — with a fairly soft schedule ahead — from inside the playoff cut line.
A lot has gone right. Dustin Wolf has emerged as not just a Calder Trophy candidate but as a goalie who looks to be among the league’s best for years to come (goalie analysts such as Steve Valiquette praise him as the real deal). They’ve gotten good seasons from the vets they do have, their young guys have shown great potential, and they have one binding thread as a team: they work like hell, particularly on the forecheck. It’s a competitive group, so if you don’t show up against them, you’ll lose.
Now, if they were worse off in the standings would they consider trading Rasmus Andersson? Would they try to unload Nazem Kadri’s contract? Maybe.
But they’re five points behind the Avs with three games in hand to catch wild card spot number one. And they’re three points behind the Kings for the Pacific’s three seed. Behind Calgary there’s only the dumpster fire that is the current Canucks, a St. Louis Blues team that’s well back (five points and two more games played), and I guess Utah? But really it’s “stay ahead of the Canucks and you’re in.”
The Flames are 29th in goals for per game. They have nine draft picks this year, including five in the first two rounds, and nine picks the following year, too (We should note that if they don’t finish bottom 10 in the league, they’ll give up their own first-rounder to Montreal this year to complete the Sean Monahan trade). They have salary cap space for days. Would it be the worst thing to reward the team with another guy who can shoot it in the net, particularly if they’ve got some term?
Craig Conroy has a decision to make, as they’re not going to win the Cup. But putting your young talent in the playoffs has value too, and could give this franchise something to build on.
Heading into this season, it was hard to see any of the usual suspects in the Atlantic being significantly worse. Florida, Toronto, and Tampa Bay still had loads of talent, and Boston wasn’t going to just evaporate. Combine that with expectations being higher for Ottawa, Detroit and heck, Buffalo, and it seemed like the Habs were destined for the basement, or at least a few stairs up from it.
But 50 games into the season, following the successful additions of Alexandre Carrier, rookie Lane Hutson, and Patrik Laine, the Habs are two points out of playoffs. It seemed like a year they were dead set on getting another high pick, but if they wanted to flip the script – which is always tempting – you could see them hanging around the post-season fight. They’re not particularly bad from top to bottom when healthy, and numerous players have taken a step forward.
The best thing for this franchise long-term is probably to sell and pick high again. But when you get to this point, and people tell you that you should “reward the players” for putting themselves in the post-season fight, it has to be awfully tough to consider cutting out the knees of the group.
What’s better for a team with 21 picks over the next two years: more assets, or meaningful game experience? One is tangible, the other isn’t. But you can make a fair case that at this point of the Habs’ rebuild, they matter equally.
We’ve had their GM Danny Briere and President Keith Jones on Real Kyper and Bourne in the past few weeks, and both have said they don’t see their team as a contender. They’re a seller, they’re not good enough. But they’re also 6-3-1 in their past 10 and three points outside the playoffs as of today.
Whoops.
This is a team that had zero designs on the post-season, has gotten the league’s dead worst goaltending (a combined .875 save percentage), and yet is somehow just a few points from a playoff spot. It’s not a mystery how you could get a whole lot better by improving at one position (goalie), and they’ve also got a whack of draft picks, including six in the first two rounds of 2025.
I know they want to bottom out and do worse, but unfortunately(?), they’ve got a pretty decent team that’s winning a bit too often for that. Which may say more about the rest of the league than it does the Flyers. But still, hat-tip to John Tortorella for taking a team with no expectations that’s getting terrible goaltending into the playoff picture this season.
The Blue Jackets finished 16th out of 16 in the East last year, made very few changes except to fire their coach, tragically lost their best offensive talent in Johnny Gaudreau, and yet find themselves tied in points for the second wild card of Wednesday.
All this despite getting the sixth-worst goaltending in the league while having the cheapest payroll in the NHL (Monahan is their top earning forward at 5.5 million per, no other forward makes over $4 million). Speaking of great coaching staffs: what a job they’ve done in Columbus.
They’re not quite as asset-rich as the above teams, and likely could use a superstar more than any of them, meaning they’d love a high draft pick. But what are you supposed to do? Pull the ripcord on the parachute while you’re absolutely flying at 7-2-1 in their past 10, while names like Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov are becoming must-know names?
They’re in the playoff hunt, and fully embody the scrappy underdog feel their city can probably connect with among bigger NHL cities. They might just add, and see if they can’t squeeze their way into a first round playoff series.
And finally,
The Utah Not Yetis
It’s not entirely clear to me what they thought they’d be this season, but a lot of people hyped them up for a team with one forward earning more than $6 million a year. They did make some off-season adds in hopes of contending, so I don’t fully see them as a part of the above class (they’re also six points out), but they do have plenty to trade in terms of prospects and picks, so if they wanted to go in, I think they could make a push.
They’re more likely an off-season flip-the-lever and chase big UFAs type team than one poised to make a real push this season though. But we’ll include them just because if they wanted to get weird (first year in the league!) it’s an option.
NHL owners all want to make the playoffs and generate that additional revenue. But they also want sustainability, and they want deep playoff runs, so they’d prefer to make zoomed out decisions based on the long term.
I think the team most likely to buy from the above is Calgary, and the team most likely to sell is Philly. But you don’t want to get caught in the mushy middle forever either, just getting in and losing, so these management teams have some big decisions on their hands.
Entering the year “playoffs” barely seemed a consideration for any of these teams, but the way the standings are shaking out is forcing some harder decisions in a way their fans must love.
