TORONTO – Three times Sheldon Keefe rewatched that miserable Game 4 loss in Tampa.
Three times the head coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs saw Justin Holl get buckled in his own zone during the Lightning’s ferocious first shift and cough up a puck that would eventually lead to a Steven Stamkos one-timer and a tsunami of momentum the wrong way.
But three times Keefe watched Holl, and veteran partner Mark Giordano, settle down after an atrocious opening shift.
So, yes, Keefe gave “lots of thought” to making lineup changes after Sunday’s 7-3 no-show. But ultimately, aside from a tweaking a few wingers positionally, he’ll roll with the same lineup that came out flat in Game 4.
You may think Timothy Liljegren is better than Holl, but that’s your opinion.
“To me that Giordano-Holl pairing was as good a pairing as we had,” Keefe argued Tuesday morning. “Hollsy’s a driver of that. To me, he’s coming off his best game of the two that he’s played.”
Keefe religiously uses the numbers to justify his observations.
The Maple Leafs hold a 14-11 edge in scoring chances with Holl on the ice at 5-on-5 in the series. With Liljegren, who played in Games 1 and 2, the chances are 12-12. (Righty Ilya Lyubushkin is getting caved in 17-31 in the category, and Giordano is doing just fine at 30-20.)
“Other than the first shift last game, I thought we moved the puck well,” Giordano said. “He was making good reads defensively.
“He’s a confident guy. He’s just gotta keep building on his game and doing what he’s doing.”
Moreover, the chorus of referee whistles has been deafening this season, and Holl is one of Toronto’s most trusted penalty killers and committed shot-blockers.
“Unbelievable. He’s been a great player for us all year,” Mitch Marner said, echoing the defence. “Doesn’t get the love he deserves.”
Back to the split offence
Michael Bunting will rejoin Auston Matthews and Marner on Toronto’s top unit, a duo that had much more success running plays on home ice than at Amalie Arena.
More interesting: Keefe has dropped William Nylander down to David Kämpf’s third line and away from second-line centre John Tavares.
The coach says the tweak has less to do with splitting his second- and third-best scorers and more to do with placing the fast, responsible duos of Kämpf and Pierre Engvall and Alexander Kerfoot and Ilya Mikheyev on separate lines —a strategy to temper a Tampa offence that can roll in waves.
Regardless of their linemates, the Core Four must be drivers in what could be a defining game (good or bad) in their tenure. They have more to give.
“We’ve played four hockey games,” said Keefe, attempting to take some heat off his captain. “To me, John has worked hard, he’s done good things. He made an elite, elite play to Willy on the goal he scored in the third period [of Game 4]. As the series goes on, he’s going to have lots of opportunity to make a difference
“John’s time is going to come. That’s good news for us.”
Tampa will try to feed the ghosts
Alex Killorn knows the Maple Leafs hear it, all those comments about past first-round failures, all that racket about history they cannot right and humps they can’t hurdle.
“It’s just the way it is. It’s a huge market. It gets talked about a lot,” the Lightning winger said. “It’s definitely an added pressure for them. There’s no way around it.
“We don’t have as much pressure in that sense, but we do put a certain pressure on ourselves. We want to win this series just as much as they do. We don’t care how many times they haven’t gotten through the first round or whatever. It’s the same pressure for us. But the media? Definitely it’s a different pressure on them.”
To that end, the champs will do their best to score first. For one, the team that has struck first in every game this series has not only won the game but taken a three-goal lead and never been tied.
More importantly, if Tampa can get Toronto down early, Scotiabank Arena quiets and the panic may creep in.
“You make everybody nervous. You want to make people feel uncomfortable. That’s our job,” Tampa coach Jon Cooper said.
This deep into a series, Keefe says, the tactical part of his job takes a back seat. Both teams have learned each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Motivation should be a given. Check the stakes.
The coach’s greatest task is managing emotions.
“It’s the playoffs, and you’re up and down. And it’s a tough thing, right? Even the media is up and down. The emotion is all over the place. That’s the nature of the game. That’s why you love this time of year, because you’re experiencing so many different things and you’re sorta riding that wave,” Keefe said. “As the coach it’s your job to keep things focused and keep things dialed in. It’s more about that — keeping the team on task.
“It’s about attrition more than anything. Trying to wear teams down. Trying to get an edge mentally, physically where you can. That’s been at play a little bit in each of the games we’ve seen.”
Cooper has the rings to project confidence and brought no shortage of it into a morning where he gave his players the option to show up at the rink.
That said, Cooper sees momentum as a pendulum that has shifted game to game. No team has won two in a row.
“It’s just been a weird series. It feels like a team has been out of it after the first, and everybody can go home. It’s like playing out the last two periods. I don’t expect that’s going to happen moving forward here,” Cooper said.
“I can’t speak for Toronto here, but I’ll be shocked if we don’t come out playing hard.”
Maple Leafs projected Game 5 lines
Bunting – Matthews – Marner
Mikheyev – Tavares – Kerfoot
Nylander – Kämpf – Engvall
Spezza – Blackwell – Kase
Rielly – Lyubushkin
Muzzin – Brodie
Giordano – Holl
Campbell starts
Källgren
