TORONTO — By acquiring Jordan Hicks, the Toronto Blue Jays did more than address one of their biggest needs ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline. They also spent big in a rental market they’ve typically sidestepped while telling their fans and players that the current roster is worthy of meaningful upgrades.
With Hicks, the former Cardinals closer whose fastball averages 101 m.p.h., they added to the group of relievers they can trust in high-leverage situations. Toronto’s bullpen has been a strength this season, but with closer Jordan Romano on the injured list and three others ranking among the league leaders in games pitched, reinforcements will help. And, looking ahead a couple of months, winning four playoff rounds is a lot easier with an elite bullpen.
The cost — double-A pitchers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse — was described as high by rival executives, yet that was the price of doing business in a sellers’ market. Viewed purely through the lens of projected wins above replacement, the Cardinals destroy the Blue Jays in this trade. To borrow a phrase once used by Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, the Cardinals get way more years of control here. If even one of those pitchers becomes a back-end starting pitcher, the Cardinals will accrue more WAR. Within their team context, it’s a good trade for St. Louis.
Yet there’s more to life than piling up WAR and years of control, which is why the Blue Jays were willing to part with two talented young pitchers who the Cardinals immediately assigned to triple-A. Because even if there are scenarios where Hicks loses his command and this trade flops, even if the pitching prospects have a chance to turn into useful big leaguers by next year, there are also scenarios where Hicks is getting the final out of the ALDS. Or the ALCS. Or… you get the idea.
And ultimately, the success or failure of this Blue Jays season will be determined in October, so acquiring arms who can help them win when the stakes are highest makes sense for Atkins this summer. In a sellers’ market, the price was bound to be high. The Blue Jays determined that the 26-year-old Hicks was worth it.
In years past, the Blue Jays have preferred controllable acquisitions at the deadline, including Whit Merrifield, Anthony Bass, Mitch White, Trevor Richards, Adam Cimber, Jose Berrios, Ross Stripling and Francisco Liriano. Rentals like Joakim Soria, Taijuan Walker and Scott Feldman have been less common, and none cost quite as much as Hicks.
When he joins the Blue Jays, he’ll augment a pitching staff that already leads the American League with a 3.75 ERA. The Toronto bullpen includes Romano, right-handers Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards and Nate Pearson plus left-handers Tim Mayza and Genesis Cabrera.
With righty Chad Green set to join triple-A soon as his rehab from Tommy John surgery progresses, the Blue Jays have a strong collection of relievers at their disposal. Yet by adding Hicks, they can ease the burden on some of their arms, including Swanson, who ranks third in the AL with 49 appearances and could use a break soon in the view of one scout.
Thanks to that triple-digit velocity, Hicks generates lots of strikeouts (59 in 41.2 innings) but he also allows plenty of walks (24). To this point in the season, he’s allowed only two home runs, one off his sweeper and one off his sinker. Even if the Blue Jays already have a closer in Romano, Hicks is a clear upgrade over Mitch White, who was designated for assignment to make space on the roster.
Of course, there’s still more work to do for the Blue Jays. Beyond the pitching staff there’s a clear need for another bat before 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Yet with the Angels and Cubs deciding to go for it, high-end trade candidates like Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger are no longer available, creating a shortage of hitters.
“No bats at all,” said one executive on a team seeking offence. “It’s crazy.”
With the Mets clearly in sell mode outfielders Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are considered available, as are Brent Rooker of the Athletics and perhaps Teoscar Hernandez of the Mariners. Those players could all fit on the Blue Jays, but there will be plenty of competition.
Perhaps a creative approach will unearth an unexpected hitter between now and Tuesday evening. After all, Merrifield wasn’t considered a likely target a year ago but he’s since performed at an all-star level, providing the Blue Jays with an excellent return for prospects Samad Taylor and Max Castillo.
A year later, more prospects are out the door as the Blue Jays map out another round of upgrades. If we’re judging this trade by years of control, the Cardinals have already won. But not all years are created equal and by acquiring Hicks, the Blue Jays front office took a significant step toward ensuring the 2023 season lasts as long as possible.
