How Berube’s Maple Leafs stack up against last year’s squad

You can rewind back to the final game of any of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ campaigns over the past half-decade, and you’d likely find the same sentiment among the fans that pack the Scotiabank Arena stands. Change was needed.

That seemed true enough after a pair of particularly disappointing first-round exits at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Montreal Canadiens, after some tumultuous run-ins with a couple Floridian clubs and in the wake of last year’s seven-game stumble against the Boston Bruins, too.

On the heels of that last one, the Maple Leafs brass appeared to feel the same. The club ended Sheldon Keefe’s time at the helm just one week after Toronto’s Game 7 loss to Boston in May. One week after that, Craig Berube was handed the keys, the no-nonsense bench boss brought in to bring more accountability, and more jam, to a group that’s seemed unable to get a handle on playoff hockey.

One third of the way through Berube’s first season in Toronto, the club’s new identity is beginning to take shape: low-event hockey that’s far more reliant on steady goaltending and stout defence than high-flying offensive showcases.

You don’t need to have an intricate knowledge of the Maple Leafs’ approach over the past few years to understand this new identity represents a stark departure from what we’ve seen of the Core Four Era to this point. But how different, exactly, has the club looked this season?

Taking stock of how the team has performed to this point in 2024-25, compared to where they were through the same number of games last season, gives us some sense of it.

Fresh off Tuesday’s hard-fought victory over Keefe’s New Jersey Devils, here’s a closer look at how Berube’s Maple Leafs have fared so far compared to last season’s group.

In the big picture, the Maple Leafs sit on a similar trajectory with a 17-9-2 record and 36 points to their name, good for second in the Atlantic Division and fifth in the East. Through the same number of games last season, Keefe’s Leafs sported a 16-6-6 record and 38 points.

On the offensive side, it’s clear Berube’s Maple Leafs have taken a step back. They’ve amassed 20 fewer goals this season than they had by this point a year ago, putting up 82 goals in 2024-25 compared to 102 last season. That dip’s seen Toronto’s goals-per-game rate drop from 3.64 to 2.93. On the other side of the puck, though, the club’s tightened up defensively, allowing 17 fewer goals than it did a year ago — they’ve been beaten 72 times, compared to 89 by this point last season, that shift seeing their goals-against-per-game drop from 3.18 to 2.57.

Case in point for how Berube has shifted his new club’s identity from high-flying offence to stout defence: By this point in 2023-24, Keefe’s Maple Leafs ranked among the elite offensively and middle-of-the-pack defensively (their goals-per-game rate ranking second in the league, while they sat 17th in goals-against-per-game). This season, that’s been flipped: Berube’s club sits 21st in terms of their goals-per-game rate, but fifth league-wide in goals-against-per-game.

At even strength, it’s a similar story. The Maple Leafs ranked fourth in the league in even-strength goals per 60 minutes by this point last season (3.22) — now, they sit 20th (2.91). On the other side, they ranked 17th league-wide in goals against per 60 by this point last season (2.81) and currently find themselves fifth in the league (2.55).

The new coach’s affinity for low-event hockey is coming through too — after averaging 32.9 shots per game and allowing 32.5 shots against per game through the first third of last season, Berube’s Leafs are averaging only 28.6 shots and giving up just 29 against per game.

Of course, there’s a significant piece of context that’s impacted each of those offensive numbers this season: the injury that sidelined Auston Matthews for multiple weeks. The reigning Rocket Richard Trophy winner missed nine games in November, robbing the Maple Leafs of their most prolific scorer (though the club did well in his absence, going 7-2 without him). Beyond the team’s overall offensive effectiveness, the captain’s absence surely impacted his club’s power-play numbers — the tumultuous unit sported a 25.9 per cent success rate by this time last season, but sits at 19 per cent so far this year. On the other side of the puck, the penalty kill has been fairly consistent, clicking at a rate of 80 per cent last season and 83 per cent so far this season.

With Matthews out, it’s been Mitch Marner pacing the club in scoring so far in 2024-25, the winger sitting with 38 points on the campaign, while William Nylander leads the team with 17 goals. Through as many games last season, Matthews led in the goals department with 23 to his name, while Nylander paced the club with 40 points.

Beyond the offence, the slow transition to Berube’s style has yielded some odd differences throughout the rest of the Maple Leafs’ play. For example, for as hard-nosed as their new bench boss may be, this season’s Leafs are hitting less and racking up fewer penalty minutes than they did through the first third of the 2023-24 season. They’re also blocking roughly the same number of shots as they did under Keefe last season, while giving away the puck more and taking it away from the opposition less. There has been one hyper-specific change that the Maple Leafs faithful will gladly take, though: By this time last year, the Maple Leafs had already collected eight bench minors — so far this season, they’ve committed only a pair.

Stifled offence and improving defence aside, there’s no shift that’s taken place for these Maple Leafs that’s had more of an impact than what’s transpired with the club’s goaltending, the steady play in Toronto’s cage by far the most unfamiliar aspect of the team’s season to date.

Rewind back to this time last year, with a third of the 2023-24 campaign in the books, and the Maple Leafs’ goaltenders — led by a tandem of Joseph Woll and Ilya Samsonov — were floundering. Neither of the team’s regular netminders ranked in the top 10 in any major statistical category. At even strength, neither ranked in the top 20.

Fast-forward to the here and now, and the club’s goaltending has been its greatest strength.

Just shy of the 30-game mark on the season, Anthony Stolarz and Woll both rank top five in save percentage and goals-against average among netminders who’ve played more than a handful of games. Stolarz, specifically, has been the story of the season so far for the blue-and-white, the 2024 Cup champ’s elite play between the pipes allowing the Maple Leafs to stack wins even as their offence has seemingly taken a step back. The 30-year-old boasts the league’s best overall save percentage (.928), the league’s best save percentage at 5-on-5 (.953) and the league’s fifth-best high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 (.863). Behind him, Woll’s had a resurgent campaign since returning to the fold too, improving on the form he showed through the early going of 2023-24 and ranking among the top 10 in each of those categories as well.

All told, it seems Berube’s vision for the club is taking shape, with the 2024-25 Maple Leafs’ style already shading more towards low-event, defensive hockey. In some areas of the sheet, progress and results have come, and changes aside, the team has maintained the level it’s shown in the regular season for the past half-decade, sitting second in the division through one third of the campaign.

Still, there are issues to sort out, primarily figuring out how to breathe life back into an offence that has to this point lacked the explosiveness it’s showed in the past — an offence led by four of the highest-paid forwards in the game. They have plenty of time to put it all together, of course. And in the meantime, the success of Toronto’s new goaltending tandem has lessened the pressure to sort out the issues that remain.

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