TORONTO — As the Toronto Blue Jays have surged to the top of the American League standings, surpassing even the most optimistic external expectations for the club, a parallel story has unfolded just south of the border.
Despite splashy winters by National League powerhouses the Dodgers and Mets, it’s the small-market Milwaukee Brewers who arrive at Rogers Centre for this weekend’s series boasting the top record and run differential in the Senior Circuit.
Like the Blue Jays, Milwaukee has succeeded with a one-through-26 approach, uncovering production from unheralded talent across the roster. It’s a formula the Brewers have used to reach the post-season in six of the last seven years, building teams that pitch, defend and run the bases well while grinding out tough at-bats.
And there’s perhaps no current Blue Jay who knows that identity better than Eric Lauer, who pitched in Milwaukee from 2020 to 2023.
“It’s impressive,” Lauer said Wednesday, after Toronto’s 9-8 victory over the Twins. “And I think it’s kind of the staple for the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s just blue-collar baseball. It’s very hard-nosed, hard-playing, guys putting the ball in play, making things happen.”
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It’s a description that would aptly suit these 2025 Blue Jays, too, as the two sides have found success by leaning into their ability to make contact, execute in big situations and play solid defence.
That makes this three-game set, one that Lauer said will “make for a real good dirtbag matchup,” a fitting opportunity to see how the teams’ comparable styles line up on the same field.
Here is a closer look at a few of the areas that have made Toronto and Milwaukee so similar in their path to the top of the standings.
Contact and approach
In an MLB landscape dominated by the home run, the Blue Jays and Brewers aren’t shying away from the long ball, but they both have clearly put a priority on avoiding strikeouts and forcing opposing defences to make plays.
Toronto enters play Friday sporting the highest contact rate and lowest strikeout and swing-and-miss rates in the majors. And Milwaukee isn’t far behind, checking in fourth, and third- and second-lowest on those three lists, respectively.
“I think pitching continues to get better and better, and moving the ball forward has kind of become a premium,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider explained in his office pre-game Wednesday. “I think home runs are going to come. If you can do both, that’s great. I feel like we can do that, they can do that. It just allows you to be versatile.
“With the calibre of pitching that every team has, putting the ball in play is really important.”
One area where the two clubs differ is in how often they swing and chase. Milwaukee’s hitters are among the stingiest in baseball about taking the bat off their shoulders, owning MLB’s lowest swing and chase rates through play Wednesday — offering at 45.2 per cent of pitches overall and 25.3 per cent out of the zone.
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are more free-swinging, checking in 19th in baseball in chase rate (28.6 per cent) while positing the sixth-highest swing rate (48.4 per cent).
Although Toronto and Milwaukee both make a ton of contact, and the Brewers evidently have an advantage in patience, the difference that has the Blue Jays posting a higher team OPS is in the quality of contact they make.
Toronto is out-slugging Milwaukee by more than 20 points on the season, doing more damage on the balls it puts in play, thanks to a team-wide hard-hit percentage that puts it among the top 10 in baseball.
Strength in numbers
Both the Blue Jays and Brewers have received star-level production from the top of their rosters, but another defining trait they share is the contribution of their depth pieces in 2025.
As things stand entering Friday’s opener, neither team is trending to have a player finish in the top five in MVP voting in their respective league, and Freddy Peralta may be the only pitcher who could find himself at the top of Cy Young ballots.
It’s truly been a team effort from two of MLB’s top clubs. The Blue Jays have 17 players worth 1.0 WAR or more, as calculated by FanGraphs — the most in baseball — while the Brewers rank second, with 16.
Chief among Milwaukee’s pop-up contributors have been outfielder Isaac Collins, who may be the favourite to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award, and first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Collins, 28, is carrying a .790 OPS on the season. He stepped in to fill the void left by Jackson Chourio, who has been out for a month but is set to return Friday. Vaughn, a mid-season acquisition, has been one of baseball’s top hitters in his 40 games since joining the Brewers, blasting nine homers and slugging .507.
It mirrors the contributions that the Blue Jays have received from their depth players, who have stepped into larger roles, with the likes of Anthony Santander, Daulton Varsho and Max Scherzer spending significant time on the injured list.
As has been the case for these teams all season, any player who takes the field will have the opportunity to be a difference-maker this weekend, making every out and run carry extra weight.
Beating the best
No team has played quality opponents better than the Blue Jays and Brewers in 2025.
While Milwaukee has cooled off after its 14-game hot streak to open August, it still leads MLB with 39 wins against teams above .500, with Toronto second, at 38. That both clubs have thrived when taking on baseball’s best underscores how they’ve been able to raise their play in big games and big moments to establish themselves as legitimate contenders.
“It’s going to be a good test for us,” Lauer said of Toronto’s upcoming schedule. “I think we play our best baseball against good teams, and we play hard every night. … (It’ll be) really good to see where we’re at, see where we stack up. We’re always ready for the challenge. We like playing good ball and just doing our thing out there, winning games.”
In addition to the challenge that each offence presents, both teams are sending what could reasonably be their post-season rotations to the mound for the series. Brewers starters Peralta, Quinn Priester and Brandon Woodruff are scheduled to pitch opposite the Blue Jays trio of Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer.
With October baseball right around the corner, every game is important. But with the Blue Jays and Brewers bringing such similar styles to the ballpark night in and night out, there will surely be some extra motivation for both sides to prove who does it best in front of what will certainly be a packed crowd this weekend at Rogers Centre.
