Riding a five-game win streak, the Toronto Blue Jays continue to close in on not only a return to the post-season, but also an AL East title and first-round bye.
Sitting at 88-62 after Monday’s extra-inning win over the Tampa Bay Rays, the Blue Jays hold a five-game lead over the New York Yankees in the division, a six-game cushion for a bye to the ALDS, and they could be just days away from clinching their spot in October.
With many possible outcomes to be decided over the final weeks of the regular season, here is a look at Toronto’s path to claiming its spot in the 2025 playoff picture.
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Magic number guide
Baseball’s “magic number” refers to how close a team is to clinching its playoff spot and represents the combined number of wins it needs and losses its closest rival needs to clinch.
MLB.com lists the magic number formula (altered here to include the Blue Jays’ position) as follows:
Blue Jays’ games remaining +1 – (Losses by chasing team – Blue Jays’ losses)
The formula doesn’t account for any tiebreakers, which come down to head-to-head record. Thanks to their dominant play against fellow contenders, the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker over each team remaining in the AL playoff race except for the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians.
Make sure to follow along here on Sportsnet.ca through the end of September as we update each of Toronto’s clinching scenarios, using the magic number.
Post-season berth magic number: 4
As things stand, the Blue Jays’ magic number for simply clinching a spot in the American League playoff bracket depends on the non-playoff team closest to a wild-card spot — the Guardians.
Cleveland had an off-day Monday, and remained at 78-71 as it enters a series against the Detroit Tigers, making Toronto’s magic number four.
The Texas Rangers (79-72) also factor in at the bottom of the AL standings, holding the same win percentage as the Guardians, but because Cleveland has fewer losses, it determines the Blue Jays’ official magic number.
This means that any combination of four Toronto wins and Guardians losses would result in the Blue Jays clinching a playoff berth.
AL East title magic number: 7
With the Yankees (83-67) dropping Monday’s series opener to the Minnesota Twins and the Blue Jays’ win over the Rays, Toronto took a step closer to its first division crown since 2015.
The Blue Jays’ magic number to clinch the AL East is down to seven. That figure accounts for the tiebreaker they hold over New York, having won the season series 8–5.
As of Monday night, FanGraphs projected Toronto with a 97.1 per cent chance to win the division, compared with 2.5 per cent for the Yankees and 0.5 per cent for the Red Sox (82-68).
Once again, the Blue Jays would win the AL East if they win and the Yankees lose seven total combined games.
First-round bye magic number: 6
With the Tigers (85-65) currently ahead of the Mariners (82-68) by three games, it’s Seattle that decides Toronto’s magic number for a bye past the wild-card series and through to the ALDS.
Thanks to Toronto’s 4-2 season series edge over the Mariners, their bye-clinching number sits at six.
The struggling Astros (82-69) could also factor into the picture eventually, as they sit just half a game behind Seattle in the AL West.
If Houston retakes the division lead, it would become Toronto’s challenger for the second bye. The Astros hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Blue Jays, and Toronto’s magic number against them also sits at six.
As far as clinching home-field advantage through the AL side of the playoffs goes, Toronto’s magic number vs. Detroit stands at nine with the tiebreaker.
Current relevant American League series
Toronto @ Tampa Bay (Monday: 2-1, Blue Jays)
N.Y. Yankees @ Minnesota (Monday: 7-0, Twins)
Boston vs. Athletics (Starting Tuesday)
Cleveland @ Detroit (Starting Tuesday)
Seattle @ Kansas City (Starting Tuesday)
Texas @ Houston (Monday: 6-3, Astros)
