How Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho unlocked his home-run power

Whenever Daulton Varsho has been on the field this season, his offensive output has impressed.

Varsho entered the season known as a glove-first player likely to produce approximately average numbers at the plate, thanks to his combination of solid power and subpar on-base abilities. That resulted in a wRC+ of 96 and an OPS of .711 in the first five seasons of his career.

But in 46 games this season, Varsho’s offence has been at a different level — he has a 125 wRC+ and .853 OPS. Given what he provides defensively, the 29-year-old can have a near-superstar level of overall impact on a per-game basis if he keeps this up. But considering the small sample, it’s hard to tell whether Varsho’s eye-popping numbers are predictive of future results or simply descriptive of an abnormally strong run cut into two pieces due to an IL stint.

When it comes to total offensive production — measured by wRC+ — Varsho’s season looks much like stretches he’s had before. Over 46 game spans, the outfielder has seen his wRC+ climb as high as 154, which it did in the second half of 2021.

This graph validates the idea that what Varsho is doing resembles his previous work, and we shouldn’t consider this a true breakout. That’s not an unreasonable position, but wRC+ looks only at the ‘what’ of a player’s offensive production, not the ‘how.’ That’s where things get interesting for Varsho.

While his overall numbers are not groundbreaking, his power has been. 

Varsho is just three home runs short of last season’s total despite taking 334 fewer trips to the plate. The percentage of his hits that have gone for extra bases (68 per cent) ranks first among players with at least 150 plate appearances. He also ranks third in home-run percentage (8.4 per cent) and second in isolated power (.346).

Even in a small-ish sample, that’s impressive stuff for a guy who came into this season with a career slugging percentage of .414. 

Not only are Varsho’s power results excellent, but they are also supported by underlying numbers that suggest that they aren’t flukey. His xHR (14.5) closely mirrors his actual total (15), and his xSLG (.538) isn’t far off his .574 SLG. 

He also set a new career-high in max exit velocity (113.9 m.p.h.) on this home run, which puts him in the top 10 per cent of all hitters.

Meanwhile, his average exit velocity (90.4 m.p.h.) is much higher than his previous career-best (87.7 m.p.h.).

Even a seemingly modest boost makes a huge difference for Varsho’s offence because he elevates the ball more than the vast majority of players. Since joining the Blue Jays, his air rate (flyballs, line drives and popups) ranks 20th among 224 qualified hitters. Balls in the air with a little more behind them can very easily turn into extra-base hits or home runs instead of finding outfielders’ gloves.

A comparison between Varsho’s air balls in 2023 and 2024 vs. 2025 outlines that clearly. His batted balls in the air are similar when it comes to directionality and launch angle, but the exit velocity boost leads to superior results.

Unsurprisingly, putting the ball in the air at the same rate and in the same direction as usual, but hitting it with more authority, has led to a massive surge in home runs per flyball for Varsho.

While this is probably unsustainable to some degree, it’s backed by a legitimate increase in batted ball quality, which in turn has a bat speed jump behind it.

Varsho has gone from a player who was above-average in that area earlier in his Blue Jays career to one of the league’s best when it comes to delivering lightning-quick, damage-inducing swings:

The relationship between bat speed and power isn’t always cut and dry, but Varsho simplifies it. 

He’s never had difficulty avoiding groundballs or pulling his flyballs to maximize their home run potential. His approach has always been geared to make the most of his raw power, but in past seasons, that raw power has been middling — and only taken him so far. 

This year, he’s getting off harder swings, generating better contact, and making that happen without seriously compromising his existing strengths. It’s a remarkable contact-quality turnaround considering just three qualified hitters had a lower xwOBA on contact than Varsho’s .304 last year. Now he’s up to .478 by that metric, 12th among major leaguers with at least 150 plate appearances.

It’s hard to look at that level of improvement and call it a pure small-sample-size fluke. Varsho has unlocked something here from a power standpoint. The question for the outfielder — and the Blue Jays — in the weeks to come is whether selling out for this additional thump will cost him elsewhere. 

So far, he’s running the highest strikeout rate (29.8 percent), lowest walk rate (7.3 per cent) and lowest OBP (.279) of his career. His approach has gone from power-focused to completely power-reliant. He’s taken what he’s had success with in the past and doubled down on it instead of trying to shore up weaknesses. 

There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but the result is an extreme offensive profile that will buckle under its own weight unless the ball is clearing the wall consistently. Thanks to Varsho’s ability to pull and elevate the ball — as well as his improved exit velocity — there’s plenty of reason to believe it will. 

Living life as an all-or-nothing slugger has its ups and downs, but it’s not impossible to sustain over the longer term. This season, three of the top 15 home run hitters (Junior Caminero, Jo Adell and Pete Crow-Armstrong) have OBP marks under .300. If Varsho had stayed healthy this season, he might be sniffing around that company.

It’s impossible to know just what the 29-year-old’s season would’ve looked like if injuries hadn’t factored in, but it’s taken less than 50 games for him to show he’s levelled up his power in a meaningful way.

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