When the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees for a four-game series starting Monday, they’ll do so with a chance to catch New York in the standings and assert themselves as a legitimate player in the AL East race.
The Blue Jays currently sit three games behind the Yankees in the standings, so catching them would require a sweep, but even winning three of four would put them right on New York’s heels.
Although that’s a tall task, it’s on the table, which is a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays more than halfway through the season. Toronto came into 2025 perceived as a wild-card threat at best, and although the AL East didn’t project to have one dominant squad, no one was picking the Blue Jays to mount a challenge.
It’s most likely that they still won’t.
The Blue Jays may be just three games back of the Yankees, but the 117-run gap between the two teams’ run differential shows there’s probably more of a difference than raw records suggest. FanGraphs’ projections have the Yankees finishing seven games ahead of New York, and while they are bullish on Toronto’s playoff odds (63.4 per cent), a division title is seen as a long shot (10.4 per cent).
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Blue Jays vs. Yankees on Sportsnet
The Blue Jays begin a pivotal four-game series against the Yankees on Monday. Watch all four games live on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.
Those numbers don’t look encouraging for Toronto, but the competitive situation is shifting. Just over a month ago, on May 27, the Yankees’ odds to win the AL East peaked at 91.7 percent while Toronto sat at just 2.8 percent. Since then, the Blue Jays have made gains, going 19-11 while New York has posted a 15-15 record and seen its divisional odds drop 23.5 percent
It’s still best to think of any challenge for the division crown as a relatively remote possibility for the Blue Jays, but half the season has taken the notion from borderline ludicrous to plausible.
Here’s what the team would need to do to make that push:
Take care of business against the Yankees (and probably the Rays, too)
The Blue Jays have 10 games remaining against New York in 2025, and winning at the very least the majority will be critical to passing the Yankees in the standings. A victory in the series would require Toronto to do a few things well:
• Hit left-handers well: The Yankees have the second-most innings from southpaws in the majors this season, and their rotation is led by two lefties: Carlos Rodón and Max Fried. The Blue Jays will need strong efforts from players like Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider, whose offence is at its best against left-handers.
• Stay patient at the plate: One of the few weaknesses of New York’s pitching staff is that it gives up quite a few passes with the ninth-highest walk rate in the majors (8.9 percent). The Yankees have plenty of nasty stuff to throw at opposing lineups, but the free pass is available for those with disciplined approaches.
• Dedicate every available minute to gameplanning for Aaron Judge: With Juan Soto joining the New York Mets, the Yankees are more Judge-dependent this season than in 2024. Judge has three times the fWAR of any other Yankees position player and almost twice as many home runs. A small shred of hope for the Blue Jays is that the outfielder has struggled against splitters this season (-3 run value) and Toronto has five pitchers on its staff that feature that pitch (Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Sandlin, Yariel Rodríguez, and Chris Bassitt).
Add pitching at the trade deadline
If we accept the premise that there’s a talent gap between the Blue Jays and Yankees today, the best way to close it is to import some new talent.
As it stands, the Blue Jays rank sixth among all teams in position player fWAR (15.0), and since May 1, they are first (12.4). That doesn’t mean bringing in bats shouldn’t be considered, particularly if injured outfielders Dalton Varsho and Anthony Santander experience setbacks. Another lefty masher with more experience in that role than Schneider is another reasonable fit.
Still, Toronto enters their series with the Yankees holding the 21st-best ERA in the majors (4.14) and the 22nd-highest pitcher fWAR total (3.5). The team’s superlative defence covers for some of its pitchers’ sins, but run prevention starts on the mound, and the Blue Jays are dead average at keeping their opponents from scoring off the board (16th).
Scherzer returning to the team and Bowden Francis going on the shelf is probably a step in the right direction — and Yimi García will bolster the bullpen when he’s activated — but there’s plenty of room for improvement here.
A high-leverage arm tends to be on the shopping list of any team with playoff aspirations, and the Blue Jays should be considering if there’s an impact starter available to them. Someone with term would be particularly appealing, considering Bassitt and Scherzer are free agents after 2025 and Gausman hits the market after 2026. It’s also possible that José Berríos opts out of his contract after that season.
Get/stay relatively healthy
There’s nothing particularly actionable here for the team, and health outcomes are luck-based to an extent, but there’s also no doubt that this will affect the Blue Jays’ second half immensely.
If Max Scherzer can lock down a spot at the back of the rotation without being sidelined due to his thumb issue, that will go a long way towards stabilizing the pitching staff. Alek Manoah is a wild card who could easily give the Blue Jays a massive boost down the stretch or have very little to contribute.
On the position player side, Varsho is one of the team’s better all-around contributors, and despite the ugly start to his Blue Jays’ career, Santander’s power could have an additive effect on the lineup.
Meanwhile, the team can ill-afford to lose one of its top-three starters, or top-of-the-order producers like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Even nagging injuries that diminish performance could set back George Springer’s renaissance or Alejandro Kirk’s bounceback season.
Injuries probably aren’t written/talked about nearly enough because teams are reluctant to make excuses when they happen, there’s not much to say when they don’t, and predictions related to them are impossible to make in an informed way.
That said, when you’re talking about situations where a team needs things to break right to bring about an unlikely outcome — like the Blue Jays emerging as a threat to win the AL East — health is a critical factor.
