Alarm bells are ringing in Toronto. The Maple Leafs have lost five consecutive games (0-4-1) for the first time in more than four years and are 15th in the Eastern Conference by points percentage (.474), leading to tough questions about which direction the franchise should take.
A leaky defence and inconsistent goaltending are the primary culprits for Toronto’s poor start. Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube rightfully called out his players last week for not “(valuing) the defensive side of the puck enough.” That is reflected in the numbers; Toronto is 27th in expected goals against per game (3.25) and 31st in actual goals against per game (3.79).
Here is a look at what has gone wrong for the Maple Leafs on the defensive end:
Turnovers galore
The Maple Leafs defensive corps’ puck-moving limitations have frequently been brought up as a reason for the team’s issues in its own end, including by Sportsnet’s Justin Bourne last week.
Berube is not asking his defencemen to exit the zone with possession the way that former Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe did. Nevertheless, their defencemen’s inability to help break out pucks effectively has played a part in the Maple Leafs having allowed 26 goals within 10 seconds of a turnover, trailing only the Edmonton Oilers (30) and St. Louis Blues (28).
Defencemen are responsible for 15 of those 26 goals against. Brandon Carlo, whom the Maple Leafs placed on injured reserve Monday with a lower-body injury, is the worst offender. Five of the Maple Leafs’ turnover goals against have been the result of a Carlo giveaway. (Only three players — Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, and Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse — have been responsible for more turnover goals against than Carlo.)
To further break down the Maple Leafs’ turnover troubles, they have allowed seven goals within 10 seconds of a failed outlet pass. Another four have resulted from failed dump-out attempts.
“I think we struggle with (that decision), when to make a pass on the tape and when to get the puck out,” Maple Leafs defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has been responsible for two turnover goals against, told reporters. “We’ve had the puck on the stick when we can clear it, and then you’ll see it bounce, and then you squeeze the stick a little bit too tight. That’s what I see, and I think we’re in agreement through the whole team.”
Stolarz’s struggles
Anthony Stolarz put up sparkling numbers last season, recording 26.4 goals saved above expected (GSAE) in just 34 games (33 starts). His 0.8 GSAE per 60 minutes led all goaltenders (minimum 1,000 minutes played), as did his 75.8 per cent quality start rate. Last season, Stolarz and Joseph Woll had a combined 53 quality starts in 74 tries (71.6 per cent).
But that has changed dramatically to start this season. Stolarz, whom the Maple Leafs placed on injured reserve with an upper-body injury Saturday, has prevented more goals than expected in just six of his first 13 starts (46.2 per cent quality start rate).
The conditions around Stolarz have worsened, but he has not bailed out his teammates. In particular, opponents have had success forcing Stolarz to move side to side. He has allowed 14 seam goals on 35 shots (.600 save percentage), a far cry from the .814 save percentage he posted on seam shots last season (16 goals against on 86 shots). Perhaps relatedly, Stolarz has already allowed seven five-hole goals — more than twice the amount he gave up all last season.
“I think Anthony’s (performance) has (a lot) to do with our game,” Berube told reporters last week. “There’s games this year where he’s been solid, but we’re giving up chances that we did not give up last year.”
For now, the Maple Leafs should not count on Stolarz to provide cover for them as they work through their defensive issues.
Are the Maple Leafs in real danger of missing the playoffs?
American Thanksgiving often serves as a guidepost for teams in determining their playoff chances. Since the NHL introduced its wild-card playoff format in 2013-14 (excluding the shortened 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons), 76.9 per cent of teams (123/160) that held a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving ultimately qualified. (In each of the past 10 full seasons, at least three teams outside the playoff picture on U.S. Thanksgiving made it to the post-season.)
The Maple Leafs have four games before the holiday, starting with the equally lowly Blues on Tuesday at Scotiabank Arena. They enter Tuesday four points behind the Columbus Blue Jackets for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, so they are by no means out of the race.
But the Maple Leafs cannot afford for this losing streak to last much longer.
All stats via Sportlogiq
