Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs were enjoying the silence.
The endless chatter about the polarizing winger’s contract situation had subsided. But that all changed last weekend, when Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and others reported that Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving approached Marner about waiving his no-movement clause as part of a potential megadeal with the Carolina Hurricanes for Mikko Rantanen.
Marner declined the overture, creating more questions about what comes next. The Hurricanes pivoted by trading Rantanen to the Dallas Stars, who signed him to an eight-year, $96 million contract.
Rantanen will enter next season as the highest-paid winger in the NHL — for now. Marner is in position to eclipse Rantanen’s $12.5 million cap hit as the unquestioned top free agent available this off-season in a rising-cap environment.
There are numerous similarities between the players. Both were top-10 draft picks in 2015 and are top-10 scorers in the league since 2016-17. Rantanen is a more prolific scorer, averaging roughly 38 goals per 82 games since becoming a full-time NHL player. Marner, meanwhile, is a better playmaker and defensive presence. But their career scoring averages since 2016-17 — Marner’s 1.13 points per game and Rantanen’s 1.1 points per game — are virtually identical.
Marner is having an excellent contract season. He leads the Maple Leafs with 80 points, which puts him on pace to crack 100 points for the first time in his career. His 334 slot-driving plays, which include passes and puck carries into the slot, are ninth-most in the league. Marner also has stepped up when Auston Matthews has missed time this season, recording 10 goals and 22 points in those 15 games — 10 of which Toronto won.
Marner should receive consideration for the Selke Trophy as well. No forward has blocked more passes (290) than Marner, who also ranks tied for fourth in successful stick checks (87). Of the 65 forwards with at least 50 points this season, Marner is the only one who averages at least two minutes of shorthanded ice time per game.
“You guys see him out there. He does it all,” Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll told Sportsnet’s Shawn McKenzie after Marner’s shootout winner against the Utah Hockey Club on Monday. “He’s great defensively. He’s great offensively. He’s a great energy guy for us as well. He’s a special guy, special player.”
Of course, the biggest difference between Rantanen and Marner is their playoff success. Rantanen won the Stanley Cup in 2022 with the Colorado Avalanche, and his average of 1.25 points per game in the post-season puts him in elite company. Only Wayne Gretzky (1.84), Mario Lemieux (1.61), Connor McDavid (1.58), Leon Draisaitl (1.46) and Nathan MacKinnon (1.3) rank higher than Rantanen among the nearly 1,300 players who have appeared in at least 50 playoff games.
On the other hand, Marner is associated with the Core Four’s failures on the sport’s biggest stage. Unlike Rantanen, Marner’s point-per-game average in the playoffs is lower than his regular-season average, and he has scored six goals in 37 playoff games dating to 2020. But he has been just as good at facilitating offensive opportunities for himself and his teammates in the playoffs despite the lack of results. Maple Leafs fans do not find solace in that, though.
Treliving insisted earlier this week that the recent developments are not a distraction, and that the Maple Leafs support Marner “1,000 per cent.” But this issue is not going away now that it has resurfaced.
The Maple Leafs are at the mercy of Marner, who holds all the leverage in contract negotiations. His play so far this season has only increased his asking price.
“We’ll continue to try to do business as quietly and behind the scenes and try to not make too much noise here in Toronto and worry about the games,” Treliving told Real Kyper & Bourne after the trade deadline. “And when it’s time to worry about those things, we’ll get them addressed.”
