“Go to Toronto,” they said. “The increased visibility will allow you to cash in on your next deal,” they said.
And hey, “they” weren’t entirely wrong. That is one of the potential outcomes after playing in Toronto, thanks to the swell in media scrutiny.
Ilya Mikheyev came to Toronto and cashed out. Michael Bunting brought his casino chips to the same window and pocketed his money. And even a guy like Noel Acciari – who’s turning 32 in December and played 34 total games as a Leaf with seven points – parlayed some trustworthy systems play and a few big hits into his biggest NHL contract.
On the other hand, if you go to Toronto and struggle, well…it can become “not great” pretty fast too. Nick Ritchie started with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner two seasons ago and 33 games later was a Coyote in Arizona.
As a pro athlete, you’re far less likely to consider the potential negative outcomes of an opportunity, because typically you’ve hit the high marks throughout your life to end up where you’re at.
So if you’re John Klingberg, Max Domi, or Tyler Bertuzzi, you saw those former Leafs get their money and thought “hey why can’t I do the same?” Early on here, it’s possible that with clearer vision they’re seeing the other potential outcomes on the horizon as well.
Let’s be frank: the core of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been great over a long stretch of years, and they’re still in place. Just about everything beyond that core has, so far, stunk this season. How they’ve filled in around those core guys has had considerable effect on their season totals in the past, and pleasant surprises like the one’s mentioned above and others (David Kampf and Ondrej Kase come to mind) has helped the Leafs hit 115 and 111 points the past two seasons.
At a glance, here are the stat lines of their new players so far this season, through four games:
• John Klingberg: 0-3 = 3 pts
• Tyler Bertuzzi: 1-0 = 1pt
• Max Domi: 0-1 = 1 pt
• Noah Gregor: 1-0 = 1 pt
• Ryan Reaves: 0-0 = 0
Other players with some “newness” to them have struggled as well. Jake McCabe has had some tough nights, Fraser Minten has been largely unnoticeable and remains without a point, and even Matthew Knies has yet to pick up a point on the season.
I’d say that of the names mentioned there, only Gregor has had a truly positive start for the club.
And while it’s tempting to chalk up a 2-2 start and some slow player performances to “it’s hard to join a new team and find success right away,” that is possible. Alex DeBrincat joined the Detroit Red Wings and has eight points in four games. Vladimir Tarasenko has six in four for Ottawa, Evan Rodrigues has five points in four games for Florida, while all of Reilly Smith, JT Compher, Shayne Gostisbehere, Erik Karlsson, and James van Riemsdyk are at a point-per-game early with their new teams.
(If you want to count rookies with those on “new teams,” Logan Cooley and Leo Carlsson are technically point-per-game guys too.)
So we’ve laid out the rough Leafs start, and shown it’s possible to start well in new surroundings. But it’s probably a reasonable time to also note that, holy smokes, that’s a lot of names we’ve listed as new for Toronto, isn’t it? A team dresses 18 skaters and I just listed eight Leafs as new, or having “newness” (joined at last year’s deadline or later).
When asked what it would take to help his new guys get sorted out, Sheldon Keefe answered simply: “time.”
That’s a big ask in Toronto.
How much time should they allow, and what’s a reasonable expectation for fans who follow the team?
I’ve got some experience changing teams in-season. I spent a pro season getting called up and sent back down between the AHL and ECHL. I spent the first month of that season playing in NHL training camps (rookie and main) with some exhibition hockey before joining those other teams. I spent a year of junior hockey up and down between leagues for tryouts. Thanks to an NHL trade and how it moved bodies around, I got traded during an ECHL season, too. Each time you start over in a new place, you’re still the same player, but it’s awfully hard to figure out how to best utilize your tools.
If you get a bounce and find yourself one-on-one with a goalie, it’s pretty simple – you do what you’ve always done. But if it’s a two-on-one and you’ve got to figure out where a new linemate likes to hit their one-timers from in their stance, or whether they like to drive the net for a tip, or pull up for a shot, or swing out wide and slow, or go narrow with pace … you’re reacting in real time. The first few cracks at those moments don’t always go perfectly while you figure things out.
Frankly, it can look like the Leafs’ offence the past couple games (or even the first one, before their stars took advantage with the empty nets).
What players call being “confident” really means “playing without hesitation” and that can be the difference between the goalie getting a piece of a shot or not, or a pass getting by a D or knocked down. Confidence is just being sure you’re making the right play and doing it with authority rather than being tentative.
Eight new players, or at least six if you want to exclude Knies and McCabe, means a lot of guys on a lot of lines and D pairs are stuck between options at certain times, reading and reacting rather than just playing.
The two forwards most people expected to be impactful as new additions – Bertuzzi and Domi – in particular look like they’re having moments of rushed decision-making, followed by times of lag. It just isn’t tight yet.
The problems here bring us back to the top of the article, and the market. What they need, as their head coach alluded to, is time. Time to figure things out and get their confidence back, so they can just use the skills they’ve flashed throughout their careers. But as the negative moments turn into highlights and articles and daily questions, it gets harder to become “confident”. This is where the Toronto market can work against players, and one might start to think of those who’ve come and struggled, rather than thrived.
So that’s the uphill battle these new players who’ve started slow now face. Will their coach give them the reps despite their struggles, and can they find bits of positivity on a day-to-day basis even when the results haven’t been outwardly positive?
The Maple Leafs are a team with Stanley Cup aspirations that has some growing pains ahead. We’ll see how patient their head coach and GM are with the climb, as they struggle to find traction in the first month of the season.
