Is this the NBA or WWE? The supercomputer that builds out the NBA schedule must have some type of clairvoyance programmed into the system to have a clash between the Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers on Valentine’s Day for Pascal Siakam’s first return since being dealt.
It’s been close to a month since the trade was made. Toronto has gone in one direction with a 4-10 record while Indiana is trying to go the other way but has stuttered with a 6-8 record. Siakam has been as advertised, averaging 21.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and just under a steal a game but Tyrese Haliburton’s tender hamstring has left the Pacers struggling to hit full stride.
Should Siakam’s addition have led to more wins for Indiana to this point? Are there signs this team is better than its record? Let’s delve into what these 14 games have looked like for the Pacers, and where this team stands going into the All-Star break and stretch run.
Pacers’ offence has become more playoff-proof
This may sound silly without having even seen Indiana in the post-season, but the Pacers have functionally become a team more capable of elite offensive success in the playoffs with the addition of Siakam.
Indiana boasted the league’s best offence before the trade, but it’s largely predicated on playing at warp speed and taking as many shots as possible within the first six seconds of the shot clock when defences are relatively less set. Playing at that pace will be a Herculean task in the traditionally more sluggish style of play in the playoffs. Additionally, as the Los Angeles Lakers showed in the In-Season Tournament final, if you can incessantly trap Haliburton and force the ball out of his hands, there isn’t much individual creation coming from elsewhere.
With Siakam, the Pacers now have an option who can create his own shot off the dribble, post-up smaller defenders, and draw a double-team. Playing with more spacing around him, Siakam’s efficiency has received a boost to the tune of a 62.9 per cent effective field goal percentage. That is six per cent higher than what it was with Toronto this season, would be a new career-high, and ranks in the 95th percentile among forwards.
How has he done it? Interestingly enough, while Siakam is taking more shots within three feet of the basket, he is actually shooting a lower percentage in what is recognized as his bread-and-butter area. What’s changed dramatically is his shooting from literally every other area of the floor:
These numbers are due for some regression to the mean as the sample size increases beyond 14 games, but it still won’t be surprising if the numbers finish stronger than his Raptors numbers because he’s playing in a Rick Carlisle system that has a highly efficient offence and a plethora of shooting to surround him. Not to mention, his time in Toronto this season saw coach Darko Rajakovic marginalize his usage and productivity as the Raptors shifted focus to Scottie Barnes.
Pacers have a cleaner fit with Siakam on court, numbers don’t lie
Part of why Siakam was connected with Indiana for as long as he was before the trade materialized is because of how desperately the Pacers needed a legitimate power forward and how seamless of a theoretical fit his game suggested he would be alongside Haliburton and Myles Turner.
Siakam can take some ball-handling pressure off Haliburton and can make defences think twice about who to double and when. While the Haliburton-Siakam pick-and-roll has seen consistent usage when the two have shared the court, there’s still some meat on the bone to be had with Carlisle seemingly happy to bide his time in inverting that action. Haliburton is determined to make the most of this partnership, recently having a conversation with Siakam’s former running mate Fred VanVleet when the Pacers beat the Rockets on Feb. 6.
“I was talking more about where I can help Pascal and where he thinks his best spots are,” Haliburton said of the conversation. “We are able to bounce ideas off of each other really easily, and I think that both of us are of the same mentality – we want to win.”
With Turner, Siakam can happily occupy the perimeter when Turner wants to post up while Turner can return the favour when Siakam operates on the inside. An added bonus of Siakam’s arrival has been the improved play of Aaron Nesmith in the starting lineup, usually matching up with the opposing team’s best offensive wing but now also taking full advantage of the opportunities Siakam creates for him. He has averaged 15.2 points since Siakam’s arrival, up from 11.8 points over 36 games prior. Nesmith’s rise made Buddy Hield somewhat expendable, though trading him likely had more to do with an unwillingness to pay the pending free agent in the off-season.
On the defensive side of the ball, Carlisle has relished the opportunity to add someone to the roster besides Nesmith who can defend multiple positions. During his short time with the Pacers, Siakam has already seen primary duties against the likes of Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The overall Pacers team defence remains an issue as it has been all season, something that may just require better personnel and can’t be further addressed until the off-season.
All told, Indiana has been 15.2 points per-100 possessions better on offence with Siakam on the court and three points per-100 possessions better on defence. Again, this is a small sample size that should see some regression but that plus-18.2 on/off differential is only bettered by Denver’s Nikola Jokic and OG Anunoby since his trade to the Knicks.
Siakam is doing great but how are the Pacers losing?
Of the eight losses to this point, six have come against Boston (42-12), Denver (36-18), New York (33-21), Phoenix (32-22), Sacramento (30-23), and a Golden State team that has won five straight and seven of eight.
In these six losses, Haliburton was absent against the Suns and Nuggets, played just 22 minutes each in losses to the Celtics, Knicks and Kings, and 26 minutes against the Warriors.
Why is Haliburton playing so few minutes? The 23-year-old who has taken the league by storm this season strained his left hamstring on Jan. 9 and missed just over a week but returned prematurely because he is at risk of missing the 65-game threshold to be eligible for end-of-season awards that could have huge ramifications on his next contract.
Needless to say, while Siakam is an All-NBA calibre player, there are limits to how much the Pacers can win without its best player or with small doses of its best player. Just ask the Sixers and Tyrese Maxey, who are playing without Joel Embiid. As far as Haliburton, Siakam, and the Pacers are concerned, the all-star break can’t come soon enough.
With that being said, Indiana does feel the urgency to improve as there was a players’ only meeting after a shock 111-102 loss in the previous game to the new-look Charlotte Hornets.
“At some point, we gotta grow up,” Haliburton said after that game. “I gotta play better, we just gotta play better top to bottom. We’ve just gotta mature as a group. We have to win these games.”
Just what the Raptors need, a charged-up Pacers team in Siakam’s return to Toronto.
