The Toronto Blue Jays certainly made things trickier by losing the past two nights against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre, but a playoff spot still remains a very strong possibility — barring a 1987-like collapse.
And even if that kind of losing streak unfolds — the Blue Jays lost their final seven games to hand the Detroit Tigers the AL East title in ’87 — Toronto still can make it in this year, thanks to the nature of the schedule.
In a perfect world for Blue Jays fans, though, they won’t have to pay much attention to the out-of-town scoreboard — where the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners remain in the wild-card fight.
Toronto’s playoff odds are 90 per cent on FanGraphs after being at 97.8 per cent before Tuesday’s series opener against the Yankees.
Here’s a look at how the Blue Jays (87-71) can wrap up a playoff spot over the final four days of the season.
Wild-Card and AL West Standings
The Easiest Path
If the Blue Jays win three of their final four games (Thursday vs. the Yankees, Friday through Sunday against the visiting Rays), they’re in.
Also, any combination of Blue Jays wins and Mariners losses totalling three sends Toronto to the playoffs. The Mariners (85-73) wrap up their schedule with a four-game series against the visiting Rangers (89-69), beginning Thursday (9:40 p.m. ET / 6:40 p.m. PT, Sportsnet One, Sportsnet+).
The schedule is completely in Toronto’s favour. The playing-out-the-string Yankees send right-hander Luke Weaver (3-5, 6.47 ERA) to the mound on Thursday (7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT, Sportsnet, Sportsnet+) against Toronto righty Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.74 ERA).
Then, if the Baltimore Orioles beat the Boston Red Sox to clinch the AL East on Thursday, the Rays have zero to play for this weekend. Baltimore’s magic number to clinch the AL East is one.
Who will win the AL West?
The Rangers lead the AL West and have a magic number of two on the Astros (87-72) to take that crown.
The Astros wrap up their season with a three-game road series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are trying to nail down a National League wild-card spot, beginning Friday.
The Mariners can no longer win the AL West.
What if the Blue Jays don’t hit their magic number of three against the Mariners?
Here’s where it gets tricky.
MLB.com does an excellent job of laying out three- or four-way tie scenarios.
A nightmare scenario for Toronto would see the Mariners sweep Texas, Houston win two games against Arizona and the Blue Jays win two of their final four.
That would put all four teams at 89 wins — and tiebreakers would eliminate the Blue Jays.
If the Astros overtake the Rangers for the AL West title and the Blue Jays, Mariners and Texas finish with the same number of wins, Toronto also is out.
But if the Rangers win the AL West and the Blue Jays, Mariners and Houston end up tied, Toronto is in and Houston is out.
Two-Way Ties
The Blue Jays lose a tiebreaker with the Mariners or Texas, but win a tiebreaker with Houston.
