Let’s be honest. We all saw this coming.
This iteration of the Toronto Maple Leafs can’t make it through a playoff series without experiencing some sort of existential crisis. Their 6-1 loss on home ice to the Florida Panthers on Wednesday has them teetering on the brink of collapse. Toronto has won 16 of 19 seven-game series in franchise history when leading 2-0, including all 11 that have started at home. (Florida is 0-for-5 in seven-game series after losing the first two games.)
The Craig Berube-coached Maple Leafs were supposed to be better equipped to handle the Panthers’ relentless pressure. Toronto, however, played right into Florida’s hands Wednesday by being careless with the puck. The Maple Leafs allowed the Panthers to score twice within five seconds of a turnover. Most egregiously, Mitch Marner sent a blind, backhand pass into the neutral zone that led directly to Jesper Boqvist’s first career playoff goal.
“The way we play creates a lot of chaos, creates a lot of turnovers,” Panthers forward A.J. Greer, one of the league-high 17 players to score in the playoffs for Florida, told reporters. “That game plan (gives us) an opportunity for every line to be successful offensively. You don’t have to chase it. You really just have to do your job, and once the opportunity comes, you’ve got to finish it off.”
Interestingly, the Maple Leafs’ true turnover rate was lower in their three losses (15.4 per cent) than in their two wins (16.9 per cent), but the Panthers capitalized at a higher clip. Over the past three games, the Panthers have scored four turnover goals within 10 seconds, compared to two by the Maple Leafs. (In Games 1 and 2, Toronto had a 5-3 edge in turnover goals.)
“The way that they play, I think we just fed into what makes them successful,” Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews, who has scored three goals in his past 21 playoff games, told reporters Wednesday. “I thought they competed harder.”
The Maple Leafs’ starts, specifically in the past two games, have set the wrong tone. Although the Panthers scored just two combined goals in the first periods of Games 4 and 5, they out-chanced the Maple Leafs 25-8, including 18-7 at 5-on-5. (Of course, it did not help that the Maple Leafs handed the Panthers four power-play opportunities in the opening period of Game 4.)
To the Maple Leafs’ credit, they have won a larger share of the puck battles in the series (197-162), including 129 of the 229 battles over the past three games (56.3 per cent). The most alarming change in the Maple Leafs’ performance during their losing streak is how they have defended the slot. The Panthers have generated 105 slot-driving plays, which include puck carries and passes — 33 more than the Maple Leafs. Eleven of Florida’s 13 goals in the past three games have come from the slot, including seven from the inner slot. (Three of the Panthers’ seven goals in Games 1 and 2 came from that area of the ice.)
Joseph Woll has done his best to withstand the Panthers’ increased presence in the slot area, but he appears to be cracking under that pressure. Woll allowed 2.5 goals above expected Wednesday before being pulled. Anthony Stolarz is doubtful to travel for Game 6, which means Woll must deliver in a big spot. (Woll has shined when facing elimination, going 3-1 with a 1.40 goals-against average and .950 save percentage.)
Toronto’s “Core Four” era has been defined by disappointment, but a loss in this series would be the most damaging, especially to the reputations of the team’s highly paid stars. Matthews (eight games), Marner (10 games) and John Tavares (nine games) have combined for four goals when facing elimination since 2019. (William Nylander, on the other hand, has seven goals in 10 games when facing elimination over that span.)
Before the Maple Leafs left for Florida on Thursday, Berube emphasized the importance of having the right mindset.
“You’ve got to trust your structure and your system,” he told reporters. “That takes care of the thinking, and then it’s just about playing. We know what type of series it is, and it’s been a good series. (The) first four games were competitive. … That last game was overthinking things and not playing hockey. “You have to skate, and you’ve got to compete. It’s going to be physical. We know that. It’s tight. Take the thinking out. Go play. Be aggressive.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
