We have reached the point of the NHL season when we must ask the question: Are the Edmonton Oilers OK?
Slow starts have become a hallmark of the Oilers over the past three years. Of course, the Oilers overcame those starts in each of the previous two seasons to reach the Stanley Cup Final. Still, it is a worrying trend that eventually could bite the Oilers, who lost 8-3 to the Dallas Stars on Tuesday in their first game at Rogers Place in two weeks.
When looking at the Oilers’ first 25 games over the past three seasons, there are some similarities. For instance, Edmonton’s shot quality has consistently been at or near the top of the league, so the offence is generating high-percentage looks (even if the puck isn’t going in the net as expected).
The major difference between this season’s start and the other two is the performance of the defence. The Oilers rank 29th in expected goals against per game — a steep decline from the previous two seasons through 25 games.
Although the Oilers sit near the bottom of the league once again in goals saved above expected (GSAE), their goaltenders actually had a positive GSAE (1.6) for the season before Stuart Skinner allowed 1.5 goals above expected in the first period against the Stars on Tuesday. (Calvin Pickard gave up 0.7 GSAE in relief.)
Two years ago, Oilers goaltenders had a combined minus-7.6 GSAE after 25 games, undermining the solid work their teammates were doing defensively. Skinner and Pickard have a combined quality-start rate of 48 per cent (12/25), but the Oilers’ skaters have not offered much support in their own end.
“What are they supposed to do?” Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl told reporters Tuesday after the team surrendered 21 high-danger scoring chances to the Stars. “I’m sure they would tell you themselves that they can be better at times. … There’s not much they can do. We’re giving up Grade-A look after Grade-A look. You can’t expect a goalie to stop every single one of them and win the game 3-1. It doesn’t work like that. We just have to be so much better for them.”
This season, 46.2 per cent of the shots allowed by the Oilers have come from the slot — worst in the league and up from 41.5 per cent last season. Coach Kris Knoblauch said after practice Monday that the team has tweaked its approach, presumably in an attempt to improve defensively, but he did not offer specifics.
“We have been playing the exact same systems as we did the previous two years,” Knoblauch told reporters. “We’ve talked about things, they’ll work out, things will turn around. It’s gotten to the point where things haven’t turned around. Now that we’re 20-plus games into the season, now we’re starting to alter some things. (On Monday), we adjusted one thing. But it’s hard just because we’ve had so much success. We’ve gone to the Stanley Cup Final twice. We didn’t want to change anything.
“But now that we’re playing like we have for as long as we have, we have to start thinking things aren’t just going to work themselves out. We need to make some adjustments.”
Clearly, whatever adjustments Knoblauch made did not take hold on Tuesday. Dallas scored seven inner-slot goals — the most by any team in a game this season — on 12 shots in 6:41 of offensive-zone possession time. Edmonton’s average offensive-zone possession time against has risen by 30 seconds from last season.
“There’s not many (defensive-zone) systems that hold up after 30, 40 (seconds), a minute in your (defensive) zone,” Oilers captain Connor McDavid told reporters.
Unlike at forward, where the Oilers have missed several key players because of injury, the defence has been healthy. Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak have all appeared in every game this season.
Bouchard has cut down on the costly turnovers, but he and Ekholm have not been as reliable as they were in years past. Their expected-goal rate at 5-on-5 has dropped from 61.1 per cent last season to 51.9 per cent this season. The Oilers have been outscored 17-12 during Bouchard and Ekholm’s minutes.
Nurse, meanwhile, has committed seven turnovers that have resulted in turnover goals against within 10 seconds — tied with Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen for the league lead. The Oilers’ 36 turnover goals against are also the most in the league and six more than the next-closest team (Toronto).
“We’ve (not been) good enough to start the year,” Ekholm told reporters Tuesday before playing the Stars. “I think it’s been too inconsistent. … When we (start defending well), it’s going to make it easier on our goaltenders. It’s going to make it easier on our forwards, (so) we don’t have to score five or six (goals) to win a game. We’re a proud group back there, and we take a lot of pride in helping the team and playing our game. We’ve shown (over) the last two years that we can (play at) a really high level when we’re all clicking.”
