LAS VEGAS – Baseball’s power brokers started gathering within the Conrad Hotel in Las Vegas Monday, setting the stage for an off-season full of intrigue.
Let’s hope they’re prepared to be patient. Since the World Series all of two days ago, MLB’s five-day quiet period is still underway as the sport’s top agents and executives gather for the annual GM Meetings. That means there’s literally zero chance Aaron Judge signs with anyone but the Yankees before Thursday at 5 p.m. ET, but it won’t stop informal conversations behind the scenes or re-signings such as the Mets’ deal with Edwin Diaz.
While executives and agents make their way to Vegas, let’s set the off-season intrigue in motion by taking a look at the top free agents available and assessing how well those players fit (or don’t) on the Toronto Blue Jays’ roster…
Aaron Judge, OF
Judge would make the Blue Jays way better. Obviously. Just imagine a batting order of Judge, – no, probably best not to go there. Best-case scenario for the Blue Jays on this front may be seeing their longtime rival leave the Yankees for a National League team.
Best guess: very unlikely
Jacob deGrom, RHP
Even though injuries have limited him to a total of 16 starts over the past two seasons, signing deGrom may take an AAV of $40 million or more on a multi-year deal. That’s a whole lot of risk to accept for a pitcher entering his age-35 season. Probably best not to get any hopes up here.
Best guess: very unlikely
Carlos Correa, SS
Okay, this one’s at least imaginable. At 28, Correa’s very much in his prime with elite offensive and defensive skills. Adding a shortstop of this calibre could lead to some difficult conversations with Bo Bichette, who has shown he can handle shortstop while working tirelessly to improve at the position. But Correa’s on a Hall of Fame track, with four seasons of 5.0-plus WAR on his resume already. Whether the Blue Jays would spend $250 million or more on a free agent is perhaps the more pressing question.
If they’re interested, outfielder George Springer and coach Dave Hudgens would have close ties to Correa from their days in Houston. A minor bonus: the shortstop’s ineligible for a qualifying offer meaning he won’t cost a draft pick.
Best guess: not the favourites but there are scenarios where this works
Trea Turner, SS
Most of the thinking on Correa applies to Turner, who stole 27 bases while hitting 21 home runs this past season. At 29, he’s a year older than Correa, but with 99th percentile sprint speed, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Plus, unlike Correa, he has some experience at second base and even centre field. But again: don’t hold your breath.
Best guess: not the favourites but there are scenarios where this works
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Signing Bogaerts away from the Red Sox is likely as appealing as signing Judge away from the Yankees. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, it may be about as realistic.
Best guess: not the favourites but there are scenarios where this works
Justin Verlander, SP
It’s still a reach, but it’s not all that hard to envision considering the Blue Jays pursued Verlander last off-season. Imagine the pitch video: highlights of Verlander’s two no-hitters in Toronto followed by a digital rendering of Verlander celebrating once again, this time with Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. The cost would be high. Would, say $80 million over two years with a vesting option for 2025 get it done? You don’t know until you try.
Like his former teammate Correa, Verlander’s ineligible for a qualifying offer.
Best guess: not the favourites but there are scenarios where this works
Carlos Rodon, SP
If nothing else, the Blue Jays will check on Rodon who struck out 237 hitters while posting a 2.88 ERA in San Francisco this past season. It wouldn’t be the first time the Blue Jays have plucked a frontline starter from the Giants (see: Kevin Gausman) or signed a left-handed Scott Boras client for their rotation (see: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Yusei Kikuchi), but if the price approaches $150 million the Blue Jays may prefer to disperse their cash more evenly.
Best guess: not the favourites but there are scenarios where this works
Dansby Swanson, SS
Bichette has been a far better hitter than Swanson each of the last four seasons. Asking a franchise player to change positions for Correa or Turner is one thing. Those guys may well end up in Cooperstown. The fit with Swanson doesn’t work quiet as nicely.
Best guess: not a clean fit
Brandon Nimmo, OF
Left-handed hitter? Check. Much-improved defence? Check. Great on-base skills? Check. But the market for Nimmo could accelerate quickly for those reasons, and he’s only played 100 games twice. Spending $100-150 million for a player with that kind of health history doesn’t seem like the Blue Jays’ style. If they’re looking for a left-handed hitting or switch-hitting outfielder, the trade market may be more promising with Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbar of the Cardinals and Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates looking particularly intriguing.
Best guess: Jays will have interest, but would they pay up?
Clayton Kershaw, SP
Should Kershaw leave the Dodgers, it figures to be for the Rangers, his hometown team, who pursued him last winter.
Best guess: very unlikely
Willson Contreras, C
If there’s one position the Blue Jays don’t need to address, it’s catcher.
Best guess: no chance
Chris Bassitt, SP
This may be the most realistic name yet. Now 33, Bassitt’s poised to land a multi-year deal after a season in which he posted a 3.42 ERA in 30 starts for the Mets. He’ll likely cost a draft pick, but he’d provide dependability within a Blue Jays rotation that needs at least one more starting pitcher. Will the Blue Jays sign him? Who knows. But chances are Ross Atkins has asked his baseball operations staff to do extensive background work here.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have real interest
Andrew Heaney, SP
Sure, Heaney only pitched 72.2 innings in 2022. But with a 35.5 per cent strikeout rate and a 6.1 per cent walk rate he was an elite pitcher whenever he took the mound. Plus, the Blue Jays made an offer for him a year ago. The price will be higher now – is $42 million over three years unreasonable? – but the Blue Jays should pursue Heaney again. His stuff is that good.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have real interest
Kenley Jansen, RP
Now 35, Jansen’s not as dominant as he was five years ago. But his 32.7 per cent strikeout rate is still well above average and he may not require the same kind of long-term commitment that Diaz did. Still, he’s arguably the top free agent reliever now that Diaz has agreed to a five-year, $102 million deal with the Mets, so it’s not as though he’ll be limited to one-year deals. From the outside looking in, this looks like a fit.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have real interest
Tyler Anderson, SP
A soft-tossing left-hander with good control, Anderson posted a 2.57 ERA over the course of 178.2 innings for the Dodgers this past season. Like Bassitt and Heaney, he’s the kind of pitcher the Blue Jays are sure to do their homework on.
But if you’re going to sign a pitcher whose fastball averages only 90.7 m.p.h. to a multi-year deal, you’d better be incredibly confident that his ability to induce weak contact is a repeatable skill. Interested teams must proceed with some caution here.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have real interest
Jameson Taillon, SP
A dual citizen, Taillon has pitched for Canada at the World Baseball Classic. He hits free agency after posting a 3.91 ERA in 177.1 innings with the Yankees and seems well-positioned to land a lucrative multi-year deal. The right-hander turns 31 later this month and will likely receive a qualifying offer from New York. On paper, he’s a fit.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have real interest
Ross Stripling, SP
A major challenge for the Blue Jays this winter: replacing Ross Stripling. A potential solution for the Blue Jays: re-signing Ross Stripling. Well-liked in the clubhouse and effective on the mound, Stripling’s positioned to land a multi-year deal this off-season. He’s open to a return to Toronto, and the Blue Jays are expected to have interest in retaining him. Of course he’ll cost more than he did in 2022, when the Jays paid him $3.79 million.
Best guess: there will be mutual interest
Jose Abreu, 1B
The Blue Jays already have a first baseman and between Alejandro Kirk and George Springer, their DH slot is often spoken for, too. Little reason to believe there would be traction here.
Best guess: very unlikely
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
He’s a talented player, but like Abreu he simply doesn’t make much sense for the Blue Jays.
Best guess: very unlikely
Josh Bell, 1B
With elite control of the strike zone and impact power, Bell has the chance to be an impact signing for someone. Probably not the Blue Jays.
Best guess: very unlikely
Martin Perez, SP
The 11-year veteran hits free agency after posting career highs in strikeouts (169) and ERA (2.89). At minimum you can expect the Blue Jays to do their due diligence on Perez, but considering his strikeout rate is below average at 20.6 per cent, they may prefer to begin their search in pursuit of more upside.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have some interest
Taijuan Walker, SP
Walker enjoyed his time with the Blue Jays during the abbreviated 2020 season and has since put together consecutive respectable seasons with the Mets. Now 30, he seems poised to land another multi-year deal. He’s on the list of mid-rotation starters who would legitimately fit in Toronto.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have some interest
Andrew Benintendi, OF
The Blue Jays had some interest in Benintendi at the 2022 trade deadline, so there’s no reason to rule this possibility out. But with three starting outfielders and multiple bats in the DH mix, the Blue Jays might have to work out a trade before they’d look like an appealing destination for the 28-year-old.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have some interest
Joc Pederson, OF
It’s not the most obvious match, but Pederson may fit better than Benintendi in some ways. His powerful left-handed bat is easily leveraged due to his dramatic platoon splits and he has plenty of post-season experience.
Plus, while Pederson’s surely due a raise over the $6 million salary he earned in 2022, he’s two years older than Benintendi and may require a commitment of fewer years. In essence, he could replace Raimel Tapia while offering an offensive upgrade in a way that Tapia never did.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have some interest
Noah Syndergaard, SP
Doesn’t it feel like Syndergaard will play for the Blue Jays eventually? Of course we said that about Jay Bruce, and he never played for Toronto, but during the summer the Blue Jays did have interest in the right-hander, who they selected 38th overall way back in 2010. More than a decade later, Syndergaard’s a much different pitcher than the ace he once became in New York. But there’s value in experienced starters, so you can count on the Blue Jays to check in here, if not more.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have some interest
Jose Quintana, SP
Add Quintana to the tier of pitchers including Perez, Walker and Syndergaard. What he lacks in upside he makes up for in dependability, and he’ll certainly be a pitcher the Blue Jays consider this winter. Of course pitchers are dependable until they aren’t, as Tanner Roark can attest. If you’re committing three years to a pitcher, there’s a strong case to be made for the upside someone like Heaney offers as opposed to the ‘certainty’ provided by Quintana.
Best guess: Blue Jays will have some interest
