SCOTTSDALE, ARIZ. — As baseball executives land in Scottsdale for the annual GM Meetings, the first deadlines of the off-season will force decisions that set the hot-stove season in motion.
Comparatively, these decisions are small in scale. The Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes will likely take weeks to develop. Scott Boras, the agent for Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, among others, sometimes takes months to place clients with new teams.
But Monday’s deadlines will still provide some hints as to what’s ahead for the Blue Jays this winter, specifically when it comes to their bullpen plans and overall payroll picture.
To start with the obvious, the Blue Jays are likely to make Chapman a one-year qualifying offer valued at approximately $20.325 million by Monday’s deadline. He’ll then have a week to accept or decline, but in a weak market for position players it’ll likely be an easy decision to decline.
Even if Chapman were to accept, that’d be good value for a four-time Gold Glove winner with a lifetime OPS+ of 117 who’s entering his age-31 season. But he’s far more likely to decline, setting the Blue Jays up for draft-pick compensation in 2024.
As for the Blue Jays’ other free agents, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield, Jordan Hicks and Hyun Jin aren’t considered candidates for the QO and the accompanying salary. But after MLB’s quiet period ends Monday, all are free to sign with any team.
From there, the decisions become more complex. Having already declined Merrifield’s 2024 option, the Blue Jays now face a complex series of decisions on reliever Chad Green:
• First, the Blue Jays can exercise a three-year, $27 million deal;
• If the Blue Jays decline to do so, Green can opt into a one-year, $6.25 million deal;
• If both of those options are declined, the Blue Jays can still exercise a two-year, $21 million deal.
If the Blue Jays exercise either of their options, it’ll be an indication that they believe strongly in Green, who returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 5.25 ERA with 16 strikeouts compared to four walks in 12 innings this past summer.
But the average annual values on the options available to the Blue Jays are rather high, and the Blue Jays likely need three to five position players this winter, as well as pitching depth. If they do exercise one of the club options, it would suggest they’re able to spend relatively freely this winter.
It’s equally imaginable that Green hits free agency, though and in that scenario the Blue Jays’ bullpen would still include Jordan Romano, Yimi García, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson, Trevor Richards, Génesis Cabrera and Nate Pearson. That’s a strong group, and the team’s existing depth could also nudge them away from those lucrative multi-year options.
Regardless, Green has proven year after year that he’s a valuable big league reliever. With a lifetime ERA of 3.23 and strikeout rate of 32.4 per cent, he’ll be in demand should he hit free agency. And even if none of the options are picked up, there could still be paths to a deal back in Toronto.
Starting Monday, those off-season decisions begin in earnest.
