SCOTTSDALE, ARIZ. — As baseball executives land in Scottsdale for the annual GM Meetings, the first deadlines of the off-season will force decisions that set the hot-stove season in motion.
Comparatively, these decisions are small in scale. The Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes will likely take weeks to develop. Scott Boras, the agent for Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, among others, sometimes takes months to place clients with new teams.
But Monday’s deadlines will still provide some hints as to what’s ahead for the Blue Jays this winter, specifically when it comes to their bullpen plans and overall payroll picture.
To start with the obvious, the Blue Jays are likely to make Chapman a one-year qualifying offer valued at approximately $20.325 million by Monday’s deadline. He’ll then have a week to accept or decline, but in a weak market for position players it’ll likely be an easy decision to decline.
Even if Chapman were to accept, that’d be good value for a four-time Gold Glove winner with a lifetime OPS+ of 117 who’s entering his age-31 season. But he’s far more likely to decline, setting the Blue Jays up for draft-pick compensation in 2024.
As for the Blue Jays’ other free agents, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield, Jordan Hicks and Hyun Jin Ryu aren’t considered candidates for the QO and the accompanying salary. But after MLB’s quiet period ends Monday, all are free to sign with any team.
Having already declined Merrifield’s 2024 option, the Blue Jays exercised their two-year conditional club option on reliever Chad Green.
It’s a strong indication that they believe strongly in Green, who returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 5.25 ERA with 16 strikeouts compared to four walks in 12 innings this past summer.
But the average annual values on the options available to the Blue Jays are rather high, and the Blue Jays likely need three to five position players this winter, as well as pitching depth. Exercising the club options would suggest that Toronto is able to spend relatively freely this winter.
Green has proven year after year that he’s a valuable big league reliever. With a lifetime ERA of 3.23 and strikeout rate of 32.4 per cent, he would have been in demand if he hit free agency.
Starting Monday, those off-season decisions begin in earnest.
