TORONTO – In a league where six of 15 teams make the playoffs, contending deep into September is hardly remarkable. For MLB’s elite, regular season relevance is a given – merely an appetizer for what’s ahead in October.
Far less palatable is the predicament in which the Toronto Blue Jays now find themselves. Despite attempting to build a win-now roster and spending a franchise record $247 million on payroll, the Blue Jays are effectively out of contention in June with playoff odds down to 4.9 per cent at FanGraphs and 1.1 per cent, according to Baseball-Reference.
A season so underwhelming naturally leads to big-picture questions about the team’s direction. Until recently, rival executives believed the Blue Jays would hold or buy if at all possible, but the team’s recent skid has made it hard to see them as anything but sellers. Now, some front office executives from other teams are wondering privately how long Ross Atkins will remain in place as general manager.
Regardless of who’s leading the Blue Jays beyond this season, the 2024 trade deadline remains a crucial one for the organization. Will they acquire a core player, as Atkins did in 2017, when he acquired Teoscar Hernandez for Francisco Liriano? Or will they miss a chance to add impact, as Atkins did the following year when the Blue Jays traded away J.A. Happ and Josh Donaldson while getting back only Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney and Julian Merryweather?
It all starts with what the Blue Jays can offer, and despite their disappointing 36-43 record this team does have more intriguing players than most sellers. As colleague Shi Davidi explains, this is just one of the questions lingering around the team, but it’s a big one. Starting with the likeliest candidates to be traded and moving toward some more complicated scenarios, let’s take a closer look at the Blue Jays as likely sellers:
IMPACT ARMS WHO HELP ANY CONTENDER
Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia
Attributes teams seek in starting pitching rentals: above-average fastball velocity, swing-and-miss-breaking balls, and the ability to avoid walks. With a fastball that averages 95.7 m.p.h., a 24.2-per-cent strikeout rate and a 5.6-per-cent walk rate, Yusei Kikuchi has all of that. Not only can he help someone get to the playoffs, he has the stuff to start in the post-season.
Along with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox and Jack Flaherty of the Tigers, Kikuchi has a chance to be one of the most coveted starting pitchers available this summer. With that in mind, the Blue Jays should price him accordingly and ensure that any return beats the draft pick they’d obtain should Kikuchi remain in Toronto and decline a qualifying offer this winter. Given his potential impact on a contender, acquiring a highly regarded prospect or young big-leaguer along with a secondary piece or two seems like an achievable goal.
As for Garcia, the most important step is returning to action from the right elbow nerve issue that currently has him on the injured list. But, like Kikuchi, he has the attributes contending GMs prioritize this time of year: a big fastball, wipeout secondary stuff and the ability to throw strikes consistently.
Adding to his appeal, he has the tough-to-quantify but nevertheless important fearlessness to navigate big moments in October. While some pitchers are shielded from high leverage, Garcia has been thrust into it all season, facing the duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge three times already and keeping them off the bases in six total at-bats.
It’s not a wild stretch to imagine Garcia recording the final out of the 2024 NLCS, ALCS or World Series somewhere. As long as he returns to health as expected, the Blue Jays will have to price him accordingly.
VETERANS TO ROUND OUT A ROSTER
Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Trevor Richards
Justin Turner’s a two-time all-star and Kevin Kiermaier’s a four-time Gold Glove winner, but both are free agents at the end of the season, so the Blue Jays will certainly listen on offers. Even at 39, Turner has a 106 OPS+ while the 34-year-old Kiermaier remains an elite baserunner and centre field defender.
Some contending teams could view them as every-day solutions while others might see them as role players, but from the Blue Jays’ standpoint there’s no need to hold onto either too tightly. The comp here might be Steve Pearce, who went onto win World Series MVP for the Red Sox while bringing the useful, if unspectacular, Santiago Espinal to Toronto.
Arguably, Isiah Kiner-Falefa fits this category, too, but he’s under contract next year for a reasonable $7.5 million, so the Blue Jays’ default plan will likely be to keep him. Meanwhile, George Springer’s six-year, $150-million contract looks like one of the least movable contracts this side of Anthony Rendon and Javy Baez. He’s surely staying put.
On the pitching side, Trevor Richards is approaching free agency and could help any contender in a variety of roles. It stands to reason the Blue Jays will listen on him – and that teams will come calling.
A VALUABLE PLAYER IF THE FIT IS RIGHT
Learning a whole new pitching staff midway through the season isn’t easy, but certain rosters are begging for upgrades at catcher and DH, creating intrigue around Danny Jansen, another pending free agent. On paper, teams like the Cubs (-1.3 WAR at catcher) and Rangers (0.1 WAR at catcher) should pursue Jansen, but that doesn’t mean talks will ever gain traction.
Alternatively, the Blue Jays could keep Jansen, but they’d have to make him a qualifying offer in the area of $20 million and have him decline in order to obtain draft pick compensation later. With that in mind, it’s likely safest to trade him now if there’s a chance to get an impactful prospect back.
It feels like a soulless bit of asset management considering Jansen’s become as well regarded as anyone in the organization since signing as a 16th-round pick in 2013. Logically speaking, though, it’s what makes most sense.
VETERAN PITCHERS UNDER CONTRACT
Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Chad Green
In Kevin Gausman ($23 million per season through 2026), Chris Bassitt ($22 million in 2025) and Chad Green ($10.5 million in 2025), the Blue Jays have three established pitchers earning significant money beyond this season. All three have pitched well, so making the reasonable assumption that the Blue Jays want to win in 2025, they may all be part of the next contending Toronto team.
At the same time, there’s little harm in listening to offers on those pitchers, who may be in demand at a time that few teams are clear sellers. The list of teams seeking starting pitching could be long, and includes Atlanta, the Dodgers, the Padres, the Twins, the Guardians, the Astros and the Orioles.
Presumably the Blue Jays would need big-league ready players – likely big-league ready arms – back in any deal for Bassitt or Gausman. And the bar would have to be high to justify trading either player. Still, this is the time to be open-minded. If enough talent’s coming back, the Toronto front office should consider dealing away its veteran arms, painful as such a trade would be.
Technically Jose Berrios fits this description, too, but at 30 years old he’s very much in his prime, and might be the hardest to pry away from the Blue Jays given his long-term importance to the team (he’s under contract through 2028 with a player opt-out after 2026).
BIG-NAME PLAYERS WITH ONE YEAR LEFT
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
Obviously, the Blue Jays don’t want to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette. Even setting aside the optics of moving on from this era, they’re still star-calibre players in their prime. Winning with them is a lot easier than winning without them. The default is, they’re staying put.
But neither’s under contract beyond 2025, and there’s doesn’t ever appear to have been real momentum toward an extension for either player. Next year may really be it, then, and with that in mind the Blue Jays owe it to their future to remain open-minded in case a team like the Dodgers (Bichette), Mariners (Guerrero Jr.) or Padres (Guerrero Jr.) wants to make an offer they can’t refuse. So, technically speaking, it’s possible.
At the same time, this is the toughest scenario of all to envision. It was just this month that Atkins said “it just doesn’t make any sense for us” and while things have gotten worse since then, it appears likely it would take an unexpectedly aggressive GM to generate much traction here. More likely, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette return in 2025 and the Blue Jays look to win then.
