If Gausman can manage pitch clock, Jays can likely expect an even better season

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If Gausman can manage pitch clock, Jays can likely expect an even better season

DUNEDIN, Fla. — Generally speaking, the early returns on the pitch clock are encouraging — exciting, even. After four days of games across MLB, the average time of game was 2:39, a 24-minute reduction compared to the 3:03 that regular-season games averaged in 2022. That’s a lot of dead time just … gone.

But even if the new rule changes stand to benefit the sport as a whole, there are some for whom the pitch clock poses a legitimate challenge. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman, for instance.

Because pitch-clock operators must determine exactly when a pitcher stops coming set and starts his windup, fluid motions like the toe-tapping delivery Gausman has used for much of his big-league career are no longer permissible. MLB officials have told umpires that the likes of Gausman must come to a full and noticeable stop before starting their deliveries. It’s a significant adjustment for any pitcher, especially a 10-year veteran like Gausman.

With that in mind, there was some added intrigue surrounding the right-hander’s Grapefruit League debut on Friday. Between now and opening day, Gausman must re-work the pitching motion that’s allowed him to get Cy Young votes in back-to-back seasons. One start in, those adjustments are going well.

It felt pretty good, honestly,” Gausman said after throwing 37 pitches over 1.2 innings against the Rays Friday afternoon. “It’s something I’m really working on, just a comfortability type of thing. Almost like a nervous tic that sometimes I do without even knowing. For me, it’s all about timing. So now I’ve got to find a different way to create some timing.”

All told, it was an eventful afternoon for Gausman, who struck out three while walking one and allowing one hit. On a notably windy day, he was nearly knocked off-balance by one particularly strong gust, prompting him to joke that he hadn’t added enough weight during his off-season workouts.

Most important of all, he got the chance to build new habits within a game setting. A year ago, Gausman worked on the backfields extensively before making his lone spring start, but with adjustments to make he wanted more game reps this season.

“We’re all creatures of habit,” he said. “Now it’s just about that muscle memory … I know that (umpires are) looking at me, so I’ve got to be a little more fine-tuned than maybe than the average guy.”

Still, Toronto manager John Schneider isn’t expecting Gausman to have to make drastic changes.

“You probably won’t even be able to see from the naked eye,” he said. “Within the rules, it’s just more of a full-body stop. Probably a couple less taps with his foot, but you’ll see a small difference when he does come set before he pitches.”

One way or another, Gausman’s a pivotal player for the Blue Jays as he enters the second year of a five-year, $110 million deal. If he replicates his 2022 season, the Blue Jays would be thrilled. Last year, the 32-year-old started 31 games, posting a 3.35 ERA with 205 strikeouts compared to just 28 walks over the course of 174.2 innings.

But even after a big debut season for Gausman, there may be even more upside here. The closer you look at his numbers, the more apparent it becomes that he was unlucky in his debut season. Consider:

• His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.32 was more than a full run lower than his ERA, ranking second in MLB (Carlos Rodon led MLB with a 2.31 mark).

• Opponents hit .364 on balls in play against Gausman a year ago, by far the highest number among qualified starting pitchers (Jose Berrios ranked second with a .328 mark, still well above the MLB average of .289; it’s not a coincidence that the Blue Jays worked to improve their defence over the winter).

• Quality of contact data on Baseball Savant further underscores the bad luck Gausman encountered a year ago, as the .304 wOBA he allowed was 19 points higher than his xwOBA of .285.

Simply put, with better luck and better fielders behind him, Gausman would see fewer hits drop in this coming season. That would then lead to shorter innings, fewer runs, and better results across the board — which is remarkable considering he ranked among the league’s top pitchers despite some poor luck in his first season with the Blue Jays.

After Friday, he’s a little closer to building on those results in 2023.

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