Everyone can agree that quality pitching is essential to success in the MLB playoffs, but how that pitching is deployed can come into question.
For years the trend has been more and more reliance on heavy reliever usage, and even bullpen games. The platonic ideal of a playoff staff — and the discourse around postseason pitching — used to be firmly centred around starters, but the sands have shifted.
Once in a while, though, we see a post-season that reminds us that there’s really no substitute for top-of-the-rotation horses in October. The way the 2019 Washington Nationals rode Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to a title was a powerful example as that duo went 8-0 with a 2.19 ERA.
Just three years later, these playoffs are showing that despite increased depth of relief talent league wide — and more creative managing tactics — starting pitching reigns supreme.
All four teams remaining in the playoffs had a top-10 rotation by fWAR this season, and the biggest postseason darkhorse, the Philadelphia Phillies, ranked second with their two-headed monster of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler serving as the clear strength of the team.
That pair has produced 36.2 innings of 2.21 ERA ball in the playoffs, sparing a bullpen that produced an unimpressive 4.27 ERA during the regular season a heavy workload. There’s no way the Phillies are here without them.
Not only do all the teams that have made it this far possess enviable talent at the top of their rotation, starting pitchers have generally been extremely effective during this postseason.
There have been 12 pitchers who’ve made multiple starts during the playoffs and nine of them have posted an ERA below 3.30. Collectively they have an ERA of 2.52 with a K/BB of 4.05.
The worst performer by ERA (6.30) is Justin Verlander, and he just got the Astros off to a winning start in the ALCS with an absolute gem.
It is not novel to imply that stellar starting pitching drives success at any time of year, especially in October.
What’s intriguing about what we’re seeing right now is how it runs counter to pitching trends around the league.
During the regular season starters accounted for 58.7 percent of all innings pitched. That’s not the lowest number of all time, but it’s close to it. For reference, in 2000 starters accounted for 66.6 percent of all outs. In 1980, that number sat at 70.4 percent.
When the playoffs begin the expectation is that starters’ workloads will drop even lower as leashes get shorter and bullpens get deeper.
There’s no time to wait for guys to “settle in” during the playoffs — and having them pushing for a couple more innings to save their bullpens makes far less sense with more days off and condensed rotations allowing for beefier relief corps.
All of that said, three of the four teams left are getting a heavier workload from their starters in the playoffs than the average team does during the regular season. The Phillies and Padres have gotten 61.4 per cent and 61.2 per cent of their outs from starters during this postseason, respectively. The Yankees sit above the regular-season average at 58.8 per cent.
The Astros have not followed suit (46.7%), but one of their four games went 18 innings and they got an unexpected dud from Verlander in the ALDS. It’s early to judge what kind of rope their starters will have.
Reading too much into playoff trends can be dangerous as we’re often looking at small samples. What we’re seeing now in October is not always an indication of where tactics are heading.
Even so, you can be confident that executives around the league are watching the rest of the playoffs in search of team-building inspiration. What they’re seeing in that acquiring top-end starters — and leaning on them — is a powerful thing.
That simple truth used to be the conventional wisdom. Starting pitching wins in the postseason.
