Is this Maple Leafs season beyond saving?

The easy part of the schedule has not been so easy. 

The Toronto Maple Leafs currently sit 8-9-2 through 19 games, and their opposition hasn’t exactly been the cream of the crop.

Coaches will reflexively tell you “There’s no easy games in this league,” and that’s fine; of course any team can win on any night. But the Leafs have played 13 home games versus just six on the road, and only a handful of games against teams that made the playoffs last season. What remains is only harder, and that’s not great when you’re already 15^th in the conference. 

“There’s no easy games.” OK great, I guess it’s all the same then. Hey good luck on this six-day stretch in January:

This is my sixth year hosting a show on Sportsnet, and it’s the first time I’ve legitimately had to ponder the question we’re going to work through in this article:

For the Leafs, is success in the 2025-26 season worth fighting for? 

I’m obviously not referring to literal effort here, which of course you expect. I’m referring to the tools management and coaching have at their disposal to alter the team at a more material level: trading players, firing coaches, changing systems, or wholly re-allocating ice time.

For all of these bigger options we’re asking, is there really any point? Not sarcastically, but for real: If the team isn’t going to compete for a Stanley Cup — which has only ever been the goal since Auston Matthews’ sophomore season — is there any logic in moving picks or prospects to aid in this season?

For what? Squeaking into the playoffs?

So, let’s have the debate.

Is “contenting for a Stanley Cup” a realistic place the Leafs can get back to?

They’re nowhere close to “Cup contender” status right now. But there’s also a lot that’s been off so far this season, and Toronto doesn’t have that typical burdensome problem most non-contenders have: a lack of talent. Talent-less teams don’t sit third in goals well into the season.

The things that are “off” include starting the year with chaos in the crease. Joseph Woll left a couple days into training camp, and that piled the pressure and starts on Anthony Stolarz, who didn’t handle that last-second assignment well. 

But also related to Stolarz’s bad start is how wildly disorganized the team has been in front of him, something that was to be anticipated for a bit while they got several new forwards and new lines settled. 

“Settled,” is not something they have achieved.

After an expected slow start, the Leafs started getting hurt. The loss on Saturday night in Chicago seemed like one that probably could have gone the other way had Matthews and Chris Tanev (and, sure, Scott Laughton), been active.

By expected goals for and against the Leafs are in a huge pocket of teams that sit just below the few best teams, but nobody outside Colorado looks that unstoppable yet. Frankly, the East around the Leafs looks generally Kinda Bad. Carolina is good, New Jersey is good. Everyone else carries question marks.

With some health, more saves, maybe a roster move or two, and perhaps some different on-ice strategy, the Leafs have too much talent to say this team is going to be some bottom-feeder. 

On the other hand, Toronto’s big defence isn’t remotely physical (nor can they make plays), they legitimately miss Mitch Marner’s ability to transport the puck up the ice, and it feels like they’re constantly chasing games.

They have excuses, but a few of these problems ain’t going anywhere.

As a result, the big decisions are arriving earlier than expected. 

Why are we talking about this, exactly?

We should talk about the elephant in the room, which is mostly the oft-floated question “Should they trade for Rasmus Andersson?” The Leafs want more offence from their back-end, and so they understandably covet the soon-to-be free agent. Calgary isn’t trying to win this year, and so would love some combination of picks and prospects to help them load up for when their new arena is ready in 2027-28.

It’s terrifying for Leafs fans, because if they trade for Andersson — or, “right-handed Morgan Rielly,” as I’ve seen him described — and it makes them a little better, they could still miss the playoffs and have fewer bits to hope on in the future. I’m not even sure marching into the playoffs to a first round drubbing is much better if that costs you someone who could help the organization in the next few years.

The point is, they just can’t trade futures right now. Things are too uncertain, and they’re not “close,” yet. So it’s hard to see the Andersson thing materializing, outside of a “hockey trade” and I can’t see many that make sense both ways.

My only note on why I like Andersson for the Leafs is that beyond his offence, I like his attitude. I like that he runs his mouth at people, and isn’t intimidated by anyone, as evidenced by the game he spent running his mouth to Tom Wilson. The Leafs could use a little attitude from a guy who plays regularly, a la Oliver Ekman-Larsson, one of their few guys who has that great trait.

So they don’t want to trade picks or prospects, what else is there to do? 

There’s the hockey trades thing, then there’s changing their coach. 

As for “hockey trades,” I just don’t see any teams out there coveting say, Max Domi in mid-November. Who else could we be talking about? Yes, Brandon Carlo’s name comes up, but he’s a perfectly OK defender, and you need right-handed defencemen. As soon as Carlo is gone, you’re brutally thin on the right, unless Calgary wants him and you can get Andersson back, but I have to believe that would cost additional assets and an extension.

Dakota Joshua cost a fourth-rounder and hasn’t improved his value since, so how does trading him help? Nic Roy’s coming around, Matias Maccelli hasn’t improved his value. Morgan Rielly is one of the few puck-moving blue liners they have and I just don’t see a path to being better by trading him. I just can’t imagine a hockey trade that another team would want.

So, what about the coach? 

There are a few problems here: One is that I believe a coaching change would cost the Leafs millions of dollars (10-plus?), before you even paid a new guy. Even for MLSE, that’s not nothing. Two, it would also be an admission of failure from the GM, which I don’t think he’s eager to make in front of the new boss. 

And thirdly, would there be guaranteed returns? Do we know Berube is the problem here? 

He’s been with the team for not even one-and-a-half seasons, and last year they won the division then went on the deepest run into the playoffs they’ve had yet with this group. Now, the underlying numbers for them have gotten progressively worse in just about every category since the day he took over, and the goaltending papered over a lot of it last season. 

There are reasonable questions to be asked about if his style meshes with this particular roster. There’s no evidence of buy-in from this group so far, which is a concern a quarter of the way into the season. It’s not going great for the coach, but he is universally well-liked around the organization and I think people are rooting for him to sort it out.

Changing the coach is an option made stronger mainly by the lack of options the Leafs have with the actual roster. But it’s also reasonable to suggest they should get some time to play through this, get healthy, and try to find their way when both goalies are back again.

So what’s the best course of action here?

It depends on the internal desperation level, which goes up with every loss.

Making a coaching change indicates the highest level of desperation, and would make a massive difference – you just don’t know if it would all be positive or not. (It’s tough to see them getting worse though.)

Making a hockey trade is a smaller move that would be meant to show everyone management is not content with how it’s been going. As long as it didn’t involve futures, it could be palatable if Brad Treliving can find one that makes sense.

And doing nothing would be tough for fans to stomach, unless the Leafs started to win some games. Winning cures all, and they’ve been losing too much, so the ailments have been evident for all to see.

Whichever course the Leafs opt for, the spotlight is just getting brighter, and the standings are taking shape. You’d hate to see them go down with the bat on their shoulder here and not even taking a swing. As I noted, there is talent on the roster. They just can’t trade futures, because if they strike-out their chances of hits in the future look an awful lot less likely.

Toronto has its back against the wall, and now their coach’s former team is coming to town Tuesday night to get a first hand view of things. I’m guessing the coach, and a good number of the players, are on high alert as the Leafs head into games that are starting to feel must-win way earlier on that “easy” part of the schedule than they’d imagined.

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