Once the architect of balance, Washington is now sidelined as West Jerusalem, Ankara, and Riyadh shape the future of the region
On September 9, 2025, Israel carried out an airstrike on a Hamas-linked compound in Doha. The attack landed like a thunderclap: it was the first time Israel had struck inside Qatar, home to Al-Udeid Air Base – the largest US military facility in the region and a cornerstone of Washington’s posture in the Middle East.
The strike exposed the contradictions of America’s regional strategy. For decades, Washington positioned itself as the guarantor of balance in the Middle East. But Israel’s decision to act unilaterally, in the heart of an American ally, has shaken that framework and raised the question: is US influence in the region slipping away?
The incident and its fallout
Within hours of the Israeli strike, US President Donald Trump distanced himself from the decision. On his Truth Social account, he wrote:
“This was a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was not a decision made by me. Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States … does not advance Israel or America’s goals.”
It was a rare public rebuke of an Israeli action by a sitting US president – and a telling sign of the strain between Washington and West Jerusalem. Trump’s words revealed two things at once: America’s desire to preserve its Gulf alliances and the perception that Israel is increasingly willing to act alone, even at the expense of its patron.
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The United Nations was quick to sound the alarm. Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN’s chief political affairs officer, called the attack an “alarming escalation” that risked opening “a new and perilous chapter in this devastating conflict.”
The choice of target made the shock even greater. Qatar is not a marginal actor: it is home to Al-Udeid Air Base, the hub of US air operations across the region.
Before his departure, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had warned on January 14, 2025 that the American empire had to do everything to maintain a favorable order in the region and that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was the key: “We continue to believe the best way to create a more stable, secure, and prosperous Middle East is through forging a more integrated region. The key to achieving that integration now, more than ever, is ending this conflict in a way that realizes the long-standing aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians.”
By striking in Doha, Israel hit at the very heart of America’s military footprint – and fueled doubts among Arab partners about Washington’s ability to keep its closest ally in check.
A fragile balance built over decades
For half a century, US policy in the Middle East has rested on a delicate balance. After the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Washington stepped in as the region’s chief arbiter, eventually brokering the Camp David Accords in 1979 that ended the state of war between Israel and Egypt. That deal broke the united Arab front against Israel and cemented America’s role as guarantor of a fragile order.
The post-9/11 wars redrew the map again. The invasion of Iraq toppled a longstanding adversary of Israel, but also unleashed new instability that Iran was quick to exploit through proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas. The Arab Spring in 2011 further destabilized regimes, creating openings for Tehran to expand its influence.
By the late 2010s, Washington’s strategy had evolved into a tacit alignment with Israel and the Sunni Gulf monarchies against the so-called “axis of resistance” led by Iran. The Abraham Accords of 2020 sought to formalize this alignment, bringing Israel into open relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, and nudging Saudi Arabia toward eventual normalization.
However, that framework began to unravel after the Hamas assault of October 7, 2023. Two years of war in Gaza froze the normalization process and forced Arab leaders to put the Palestinian issue back at the center of their politics. What was meant to be a stable order anchored by US leadership now looks increasingly brittle.
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New regional hegemon
Despite the political costs of the Gaza war, Israel has accumulated significant military gains in recent years. Its intelligence services have decimated Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon, weakening the group’s standing both militarily and politically.
In Syria, Israeli support for cross-border operations have expanded a buffer zone in the south since the collapse of Assad’s government. In Iran, precision strikes and covert assassinations have damaged nuclear facilities and eliminated key scientific and military personnel.
The result is a Middle East where Israel faces no immediate rival of comparable strength. That perception alarms regional players, especially Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, which see Israeli actions in Syria and the West Bank as destabilizing. From backing Druze separatists in southern Syria to pursuing annexation in the West Bank, West Jerusalem increasingly projects the image of a state willing to expand its footprint at any cost.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan captured this sentiment during the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Doha on September 15, 2025. “We recently see some arrogant sham politicians in Israel frequently repeating the ‘Greater Israel’ delusions,” he warned. “Israel’s efforts to expand its occupations in neighboring countries are each a concrete manifestation of this goal.”
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The Gulf and Türkiye’s strategic dilemma
For the Gulf monarchies, Israel’s growing military weight is a double-edged sword. Riyadh worries that any annexation of parts of the West Bank could displace Palestinian groups hostile to the monarchy and destabilize Jordan – its vital buffer state, which has been shaken in the past by uprisings and civil war.
Türkiye has its own concerns. Ankara views Israeli ambitions in Syria as a direct challenge to its post-conflict reconstruction plans, which extend to Qatar and the broader zone of former Ottoman influence.
These overlapping fears are already driving new alignments. Qatar is moving closer to Türkiye and redoubling its role in Syrian stabilization. Saudi Arabia has turned to Pakistan, sealing a mutual defense pact on September 17, 2025, as a hedge against Israeli power. Egypt, for its part, has called for the creation of an “Arab NATO,” positioning itself as a potential security anchor.
The political fallout is equally sharp. On September 15, 2025, an extraordinary joint summit of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation urged all states to take “all possible legal and effective measures” against Israel, including reviewing diplomatic and economic relations. Yet on the very same day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Israel, pledging America’s “unwavering support” for its campaign to eradicate Hamas.
As political scientist Ziad Majed put it, “With the September 9 attack in Qatar, Israel is clearly indicating that it no longer sets a red line in the pursuit of Hamas leaders. The Gulf states may seek to no longer be so dependent on the Americans.”
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Scenarios for the decade ahead
Looking toward 2030, three possible trajectories stand out for the Middle East.
The first is a shift toward regional multipolarity, in which the Gulf states and Türkiye build their own security architectures with less reliance on Washington. That path would increase the risk of fragmentation and flare-ups, but it also reflects a reality already taking shape: power in the region is no longer centered on the United States, but shared among ambitious local players.
The second scenario is a forced US re-engagement. Washington could try to rein in Israel by attaching conditions to military aid, while tightening ties with the Gulf monarchies. Such a move would require a painful realignment of America’s strategic focus at a time when the Indo-Pacific remains its top priority.
The third is a hybrid and unstable order, with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye emerging as the three dominant military poles under intermittent US oversight. That arrangement would be fraught with rivalries and could open the door to outside powers like Russia and China, adding another layer of instability – much as Syria has illustrated since 2011.
The end of an era
The strike in Doha crystallized a larger truth: Washington is no longer the unquestioned guarantor of order in the Middle East. Israel’s growing autonomy, Saudi Arabia’s strategic awakening, Türkiye’s regional ambitions, and Iran’s resilience are reshaping the balance of power in ways the United States can no longer fully control.
American support for Israel remains official policy, but it has become a source of friction with Arab and Turkish partners. The region is drifting toward a multipolar order defined less by global powers than by local actors – a landscape of shifting alliances, unpredictable escalations, and fragile balances.
The unipolar moment has passed. What comes next will be decided not in Washington, but in the capitals of the Middle East itself.
