TORONTO – Of Kevin Kiermaier’s 914 big-league games over a decade with the Tampa Bay Rays, 117 have come against the Toronto Blue Jays, his most against any single opponent. Inevitably, that built a lot of familiarity between the centre-fielder and his new club, each knowing very well what the other brings to the table and what they were looking for this off-season.
Sure, the Blue Jays were interested in an offensive replacement for the traded Teoscar Hernandez, but more than that, they needed a dynamic, up-the-middle defender to tighten up an outfield that’s a clear area of opportunity in terms of run prevention.
And yes, Kiermaier wanted a team that would give him regular playing time after August surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip, but he also needed a team that truly believed he’d not only find his way back to past form, but perhaps even surpass it.
So, they matched, pairing up on a $9 million, one-year deal finalized and announced Thursday, a symbol of both how serious the Blue Jays are in trying to patch the small cracks that kept them from being a more stable whole in 2022 and Kiermaier’s ability to be part of the solution.
“Especially from a defensive point, I’m a game-changer out there,” Kiermaier said during a Zoom chat with media. “And now that my legs are feeling so much better, I know I can get back to my form (from) before and I want them, pitchers, to know that they can attack these guys, throw the ball over the plate and if it doesn’t leave the yard and if it’s in the air long enough, I’m going to catch it. I’m going to limit runners, guys don’t go first to third on me a whole lot and little things like that matter. Run prevention is my bread and butter.”
There’s no debating that, whether you want to rely on traditional measures like Gold Gloves – he’s got three of them – and the eye test or advanced metrics. On all three, Kiermaier’s got it covered.
Those skills should have a dramatic impact on the Blue Jays, whose outfielders ranked 18th in the majors last season at minus-3 Outs Above Average (a range-based metric that counts how many outs a defender has saved) and minus-2 runs prevented.
Even in a season in which Kiermaier played just 63 games due to what he termed “a shredded labrum,” his Outs Above Average was one, after being at 12 in 2021, when the tear in his hip was first discovered but he managed to play thanks to “a band-aid” cortisone shot.
The 32-year-old pegged himself at 85-90 per cent roughly 22 weeks post-surgery and feels “phenomenal” right now as he hits, runs and trains. If he can get back to where he was in 2021, let alone 2019 when his Outs Above Average was 19, while maintaining his top percentile arm strength and jumps, the benefit to Blue Jays pitchers will be significant.
Offensively, the loss may not be as significant as it appears when comparing Kiermaier’s numbers to those of Hernandez. As colleague Arden Zwelling pointed out this week, the Blue Jays gave Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer and Jackie Bradley Jr. 614 plate appearances in 2022 and they combined to hit .228/.270/.340 with 10 home runs.
Given that Kiermaier owns a career OPS of .715 and was slightly better than the above trio on one leg this year at .228/.281/.369, there’s already some net offensive gain. If the Blue Jays do the expected and add another left-handed bat, perhaps to play some outfield and contribute at DH, it should help cover more of Hernandez’s lost production.
In 2021, Kiermaier posted an OBP of .328 and if he’s in that range at the bottom of the Blue Jays lineup, he should easily surpass his career high of 62 runs scored. Factor in his speed and baserunning and he has a chance to bring a dimension the club has lacked and long sought.
“We’ve got so much firepower in there one through nine where if I just do my part, get on base, anything I do from there will be like a bonus type of thing,” said Kiermaier. “I haven’t scratched the surface of my offensive potential yet. And now that I’ve got a better idea of what I want to do and (am) a little bit healthier, I think I’m going to have a great year offensively and I’m really excited to prove that. I like my approach. I like my plan and my game prep. But I know I can learn a lot from all these young, great hitters they have and guys who’ve been there and done that. … I’m working on that and I’m going to do everything in my power to back up what I’m saying.”
Such conviction and dedication is another part of what the Blue Jays are buying, as his clubhouse presence and the type of teammate he was with the Rays are ingredients important to them.
Consider that early in their discussions Kiermaier asked the Blue Jays to make sure George Springer was OK with a move to right field because “he played such a great centre field last year.”
Or, perhaps recognizing some of the risk the Blue Jays were taking, him vowing that “I’m going to go out there and try to make Ross Atkins look like a genius.”
Or, the passionate way he promised to “dedicate myself like I never have before,” and “to do everything in my power to whup up on the Rays, as weird as that is right now.”
All of that, along with his defence, offers the Blue Jays some necessary elements they lacked in 2022. Delivering on that would be enough, and maybe, with opportunity in hand, Kiermaier will do even more, too.
