LOS ANGELES — The theory went something like this: Having faced Edmonton for two straight springs, nobody knew better how to defuse this explosive Oilers offence than the stingy, defence-bent Los Angeles Kings.
They were the Pacific Division’s Hurt Locker, equipped with the knowledge, the tools and the courage to neutralize the nuclear threat that is Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl before the clock hit zero.
In practice, however, it has played out in the inverse. The Oilers have gone off.
Three games into this series, Edmonton has scored in each of the nine periods — though not OT of Game 2 — for an NHL-high 17 goals (tied with Colorado).
The Oilers’ powerplay is running at a seven-for-14 pace, and Edmonton has successfully killed every one of the 10 powerplays that Los Angeles has earned.
And in the voices of the Kings on Sunday, you could hear the yielding echoes of a team on the Game 4 ledge. A familiar foil for whom the distance appears to be increasing — not shrinking — between them and their annual Round 1 rival.
“You look at their (top) two, three guys over there, 100-plus point (players),” said Kings winger Blake Lizotte. “We don’t even have a 90-point guy.”
“I’ve played the one-three-one for four years now,” he said. “That’s part of our identity, playing tight-checking and not gambling on scoring five or six. We’re not going to win many games when we give up four or five.
“Once the score gets up to five or six, with the skill level they have, it’s going to be tough for us to win games.”
Edmonton’s powerplay, retooled for this post-season with a few new tweaks not seen before, has buffaloed the Kings. They thought they had the blueprint, but as Sunday’s Game 4 approaches, the Kings are no longer sure which wire to snip.
What can’t the Kings figure out?
“It’s an array of things,” began the painfully honest Lizotte. “They have so many different options out of the same looking set. Where other teams may have one or two options, they have three or four. And they do it at a speed that is higher than your average powerplay. It’s been proven across the league… they’ve been pretty much the No. 1 powerplay.”
“You just can’t take penalties,” he concluded. “Fourteen powerplays in three games. You give those players that many chances, they’re going to score.”
Now, two years ago the Oilers won Games 2 and 3 by scores of 6-0 and 8-2, and walked into Game 4 loaded with confidence. L.A. shut Edmonton out in that game, 4-0.
But the Oilers are less likely today to leave a light on for the Kings. Veterans of five rounds these past two seasons, McDavid and Co. know the value of taking this series home with a 3-1 lead. Possibly not even flying down to L.A. again…
“Whether you’re up 2-1 or you’re down 2-1, Game 4 always feels like it’s a big swing game,” McDavid said. “I think we’ve learned our lesson from Game 2. We came out a little bit flat, didn’t match their desperation, spotted them three in the first and had a difficult time coming back. The first five minutes is huge.”
In reality, that break in overtime of Game 2 is all that separates us from a truly lopsided series.
When the Kings have played well, they were able to squeak out a win in OT. When Edmonton plays its game, it is not close.
Up the middle, McDavid and Draisaitl — in the midst of their prime seasons at age 27 and 28 — are simply too much for the great Anze Kopitar and Phil Danault, aged 36 and 31 respectively. It’s 238 regular season points against 117 — almost exactly two to one.
That Pierre-Luc Dubois has ghosted this season, and this series, is a fatal blow, pushing Kopitar and Danault into a head-to-head matchup they have no chance of winning over seven playoff games.
“We haven’t had a lot of guys do a lot of scoring, I guess you would say, outside of (Adrian) Kempe,” said Kings head coach Jim Hiller. “Those higher profile offensive players? For sure — they need to get more done.
“Would we like more from them so far? Yeah, but we’re three games in. There’s lots left.”
Dubois’ lone point in this series came when Darnell Nurse kicked a puck into his own net. Kevin Fiala’s only point came on a prayer from the sideboards that somehow found twine. Kopitar’s three points all came in the same game. Danault has but one assist.
“We think we have a plan, a recipe, that’s going to lead to success,” Hiller said. “We didn’t follow it well enough (in Game 3), in the first period, specifically. We know what we have to do. We just have to do it better.
“We can’t shoot ourselves in the foot. Turn a couple of pucks over and here they come.”
Here they come.
He sounded like a coach who has watched the video, and knows what his eyes tell him.
For now, however, the Oilers had the day off and enjoyed some sun. Their stress is low, their belief high, but their respect for the opponent is also on full display.
“We’ve faced this team a lot, and we’ve tried different things,” McDavid said. “Through trial and error we’ve kind of figured out things that work and things to stay away from.”
As for L.A., they are proud, competitive hockey men who know what must be said.
Forget what we’ve seen so far, this Game 4 is the last real hill for the Kings. Claim it, and we’re on for a long series.
“It’s ridiculous if you think this series is over,” Lizotte said. “It’s 2-1… and we’ve got a chance to win (Sunday) night and bring it back to Edmonton 2-2. We would take that at the beginning of the series.
“Our confidence to keep this series alive is high.”
If you say so.
