TORONTO – So dominant have the Toronto Maple Leafs been over the past two months that their shaky October feels like forever ago.
The NHL’s third-place team is tracking 114 points, just a sliver off 2021-22’s franchise-record-breaking 115-point showing.
Each member of the Core Four is on pace for 80 to 100 points, the Leafs’ gamble of goalie tandem has exceeded expectations, and an underrated defence corps has thrived despite a rash of injuries to its most dependable members.
“That’s one of the top teams in the league — and you can see why. They’re talented. They’re quick,” John Tortorella said Sunday, after his miserable Flyers lost their third game to the Leafs.
“They’ve got quality people throughout their lineup.”
Sure, the Leafs have left some points unclaimed in overtime and their 5-on-5 offence and potent power-play have dipped slightly.
But their buy-in to coach Sheldon Keefe’s defensive mandate lends itself to a more predictable game. Shot blocks are up, and the Leafs have become a top-five squad at suppressing shots, thus taking stress off their goalies.
They are deep and dialed-in and take fewer nights off against weak opponents than they had in the past. Toronto’s 5-0-1 record in the second half of back-to-backs speaks to the players’ engagement.
“What people don’t talk enough about them is they’re so relentless on the puck. Their puck pursuit is [great]. You have no time, no space. You need to play under pressure,” says Coyotes coach André Tourigny. “They are relentless on the puck carrier.”
Healthy habits are taking root, to be sure.
And while we all know this group was never going to be judged on its first 82 games, let alone its first 41, the Maple Leafs are setting themselves up well for Game 83.
“We’re happy with where we’re at,” Mitch Marner says. “We’re in a good spot.”
Key team stats
Team record: 25-9-7, (2nd in the Atlantic Division)
Goals for: 3.44 per game (7th in the NHL)
Goals against: 2.61 per game (3rd in the NHL)
Power play: 25 per cent (8th in the NHL)
Penalty kill: 78.6 per cent (16th in the NHL)
Best surprise: Pontus Holmberg
(Honourable mention: Conor Timmins)
Flash back to Kyle Dubas’s first draft as general manager. Count all the kids he picked in 2018 who eventually made it to the show: Rasmus Sandin, Sean Durzi, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Mac Hollowell, Filip Kral… and way down in Round 6, Holmberg.
Holmberg, 23, wasn’t supposed to be the forward prospect that popped up from the Marlies to establish himself as an everyday NHLer this season. That was supposed to be Nick Robertson. Maybe Joey Anderson or Alex Steeves.
Yet as soon as the smart, skilled and safe centreman was granted his shot, on Nov. 2, he hasn’t looked back, and the Maple Leafs’ bottom six — ineffective in October — has taken a massive step forward.
Rarely on the wrong side of the puck, Holmberg is a coach’s dream. That the fourth-line pivot has chipped in 11 points over 26 games, despite averaging just 10:24 in ice time, is a bonus.
“I can’t find this guy making a mistake,” Keefe said, memorably, eight games into the rookie’s caeer.
For Dubas’s top-loaded roster plan to work, the Maple Leafs need meaningful role players to overdeliver on their paycheques.
Well, as the cheapest forward on the roster ($750,000 salary; $827,500 cap hit), Holmberg has earned every penny twice over.
Biggest disappointments: Nick Robertson
(Honourable mention: Jake Muzzin)
True disappointments are difficult to locate on the NHL’s third-best team.
Would you like Morgan Rielly to have scored a goal or two by now? Sure. Auston Matthews to be pushing a 60-goal pace instead of a 40-goal one? I guess, but 100 points is still within grasp. Zach Aston-Reese to make more of an impact on the scoresheet? Yeah, but the guy arrived on a tryout and is making a hair over minimum wage.
Nicolas Aubé-Kubel and Denis Malgin disappointed — but they were dispatched with the quickness.
And if you are left wanting more from middle-class, penalty-killing wings such as Alexander Kerfoot and Pierre Engvall, well, maybe your expectations are too high.
Therefore, the Maple Leafs’ greatest disappointments have much more to do with injury than performance.
Robertson was the talk of training camp. Dominant in exhibition season, for what it was worth. Then he played overtime hero in his season debut, against his superstar big brother no less.
A door opened for a patient and persistent prospect to finally make a big-league impact, only to see his season interrupted by healthy scratches and a significant shoulder injury.
Muzzin — whom management refused to consider trading over the summer— played all of four games before a fairly innocuous hit re-injured his spine and put his career in jeopardy.
Two serious disappointments for the organization, but even more so for a couple of committed individuals at opposite ends of their trajectories.
Biggest question for the second half: How aggressive will Kyle Dubas get at the trade deadline?
The Maple Leafs are excellent.
Problem is, so are the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Boston Bruins — the two clubs most likely standing between Toronto and the Eastern Conference final.
With Muzzin on LTIR, Dubas has the cap space to make a deadline splash by adding a defender with edge, an impact forward, or — can Leaf Nation dream? — both.
No doubt, the rental market should be rife with intriguing options, especially with weak teams (and the NHL has plenty of those) catching Connor Bedard’s theatrics at the world junior tournament.
What Dubas should have in cap room, however, he lacks in trade capital.
The GM prefers trading for targets with term (think: Travis Konecny) over rentals. But difference-makers don’t come cheap.
Rival executives will want to get their mitts on Matthew Knies and/or Dubas’ 2023 first-round pick (2023’s second-rounder has already been spent).
The phrase all-in gets tossed around too frequently.
We’re about to see how much of Toronto’s future Dubas — in the final year of his own contract — is willing to spend to bolster his fantastic regular-season roster.
