A series 42 years in the making might be over sooner than hockey fans had hoped.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a chance to finish off the Montreal Canadiens Thursday night in Game 5 on home ice. Toronto is coming off another dominant performance in Game 4 and, outside of Carey Price stealing a game for the Canadiens, it seems likely that only one team will be heading back to Montreal after the game.
The Canadiens have struggled to score, managing just four goals in four games so somebody will need to step up and deliver the type of offensive performance we saw from Josh Anderson in Game 1. With that in mind, let’s take a look at one player from each team most likely to be an offensive difference maker in Game 5 based on what we’ve seen in the series to this point.
Montreal Canadiens: Cole Caufield
After watching from the press box for the first couple of games in this series, Cole Caufield was given the opportunity to debut in his first playoff game in Game 3. Two games later and Caufield has performed as advertised.
The winger has clearly looked the part and could be just what the Habs need up front. While Caufield hasn’t found the scoresheet yet, he has been noticeable in the offensive zone and looks like a player poised to break out offensively.
Looking for an offensive spark in Game 4, the Canadiens put Tyler Toffoli, their regular season goal-scoring leader, on a line with Nick Suzuki and Caufield. While the Canadiens failed to win the game or score a goal for that matter, the Caufield-Suzuki-Toffoli line was the only one for Montreal that finished with a positive shot differential, outshooting the Maple Leafs 7-4 in 10:48 of even-strength ice-time. The only other Canadiens line with a positive shot differential in the series is the line Caufield played on in Game 3 alongside Suzuki and Joel Armia. That trio outshot the Maple Leafs 8-5 overall, 3-0 from the slot, and out-chanced the opposition 4-0 off the rush. Offensive chances and positive differentials just seem to follow Caufield no matter where he plays in the Canadiens lineup.
The Canadiens coaching staff have used the speedy winger in the best way possible. Caufield has the highest offensive zone start percentage among Habs forwards at even-strength (47.8 per cent) which tells us that Dominique Ducharme is positioning the rookie to succeed offensively.
In the two games he’s played, Caufield ranks inside the top three on the Canadiens in scoring chances and chances off the rush. He’s also shown how elusive he can be, beating defenders one-on-one more than any other Canadiens player. Being able to escape defensive pressure is a welcome trait on a team that struggles to sustain offensive zone time.
Another area of Caufield’s game to keep an eye on is how quickly he can get the puck off his stick and to the net. In his short but eventful playoff career, Caufield has relied on his lethal one-timer more than any other Canadiens forward. Of all of Caufield’s shot attempts, 12.5 per cent have been one-timers which is the highest percentage of any forward on his team. The next closest player is Tyler Toffoli, who is coming off a 28-goal season, at 11.1 per cent.
The bottom line is that the words “offence” and “Caufield” go hand in hand. All Caufield’s done at every level of his playing career is score goals and he’s right on the verge of breaking out when his team needs him the most.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews
One goal in four playoff games is a decent clip for most players, but Auston Matthews is capable of scoring at a higher rate, and based on the chances he’s had in the series, he should be.
Matthews leads all skaters in the series in scoring chances with 26, nine more than anyone else. Of those scoring chances, he’s managed to get 13 of them on net from the slot, five more than the next player up, Josh Anderson.
To put things in perspective, Matthews scored on 13 per cent of his scoring chances in the regular season. He’s scored on just 3.8 per cent of those chances so far in the playoffs. At his regular-season rate, Matthews would already be up to three or four goals in the series so there’s a good chance he’ll break through sooner rather than later.
Matthews is also pacing the Habs at their own game. We know that Montreal is one of the better teams off the rush, but Matthews has gone toe-to-toe with the Canadiens’ top players in that department. In addition to all of those quality scoring chances from the slot, Matthews is currently tied with Brendan Gallagher for first in rush chances with five in the series.
What makes Matthews such an elite talent is that even when he’s not scoring at the rate we would expect, he can impact the game in several other ways. This has been a gritty series between the two sides and the Leafs’ superstar seems to be thriving in this playoff atmosphere.
Matthews has won more puck battles than any player in the series — 26 total, which is seven more than Alex Kerfoot who ranks second. A majority of those puck battle wins have come in the offensive zone where Matthews has helped the Leafs sustain pressure by maintaining puck possession.
Speaking of regaining puck possession, Matthews is behind only Mitch Marner in stick checks among forwards in the Habs-Leafs matchup. The Leafs’ top line’s ability to retrieve pucks explains why Marner, Zack Hyman, and of course, Matthews sit first, second, and third respectively in offensive zone possession time among all skaters in the series.
The Leafs are on the doorstep of a second-round date with the Winnipeg Jets, while the Habs need to do some serious soul searching on offence and fast. If Matthews starts lighting the lamp like we’ve become accustomed to, it’ll likely spell the end of the Habs’ up-and-down season. On the other hand, if Caufield can help jumpstart the Canadiens’ lifeless attack, the series will head back to Montreal with fans in the building for the first time all season.
Whichever way it goes, fans on both sides can appreciate the fact that tonight, we get at least one more Habs-Leafs playoff game.
