The Toronto Maple Leafs are hitting the home stretch facing a scenario only this one-of-a-kind COVID-19 season could create: They’ve got three straight games against the Montreal Canadiens and will see their odds of facing the Canadiens to open the playoffs increase with each point they keep Montreal from banking.
This was originally scheduled to be the final week of the Leafs regular season, before positive tests forced the Vancouver Canucks and Habs into shutdowns, and may well mark the final meaningful game the team faces before a best-of-seven.
Toronto already has its hands on the North Division’s regular-season crown and would officially claim it with any combination of Leafs points gained and Edmonton Oilers potential points lost totalling five.
That could happen within days.
The more unresolved question is around who will finish fourth in the division and emerge as their first-round opponent. Montreal was in that position entering Monday’s game at the Bell Centre and has for weeks appeared destined to face the Leafs, but a recent tailspin by the Winnipeg Jets has made it possible for them to jump up to third.
The picture will be much clearer after this mini-series that includes games at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday and Saturday.
The Leafs, for what it’s worth, don’t seem too preoccupied with these scenarios or their potential playoff opponent. They’ve been singularly focused on putting together the best regular season possible since Kyle Dubas set that benchmark on the first night of training camp and they’ll be trying to win out the string regardless.
There’s been no indication from head coach Sheldon Keefe that load management will start entering the equation of his lineup decisions over the final five regular-season games. And while he took the opportunity to cut back the ice time of Mitch Marner and Auston Matthew during Saturday’s comfortable 5-1 victory over Vancouver, that doesn’t sound like it’ll necessarily happen again either.
“We’re also trying to be competitive and win the games,” Keefe explained. “Keep the top guys in their rhythm and their conditioning and the demands of playing a lot of minutes. We don’t want to pull back too much and then you have too far to ramp them back up when the playoffs begin.”
How they finish will speak to a level of focus that hasn’t noticeably waned much throughout this shortened season. The Leafs have won five straight games and are currently fifth overall in the NHL with a .696 points percentage.
Look under the hood and some key metrics underline their growth: They’re second in expected goals for percentage, third in goals for at 5-on-5 and they’ve improved to 11th in high-danger chances against after being 26th last season, according to naturalstattrick.com.
[radioclip id=5123917]While the ultimate success of the campaign will be measured by their playoff performance, they’ve taken care of business in the regular season at a level this core group has never previously attained. That was a key objective stated when they first gathered in early January.
“My focus right now is very, very clearly on having a great training camp and setting ourselves up for the regular season, and then having as great of a regular season as we can and then I think that that will enable us to build a foundation and a process that will let us have success [in the playoffs],” Dubas said then.
Should the Leafs finish first in the division, it would be the first time the organization has accomplished that feat since 1999-2000 in the Northeast Division.
There are still some personal milestones to chase — Matthews is two goals from No. 40 and likely to win the Rocket Richard Trophy, while Marner is in position to finish higher on the league’s points list than any Leafs player in decades — and injured players to work back in. Zach Hyman (sprained MCL) and Frederik Andersen (knee issue) would both love to see game action before the playoffs.
But arguably the most important indicator of all will be what this final semi-meaningful stretch of games looks like from a team perspective.
“We don’t want to get away from what our mindset has been since Day 1,” said captain John Tavares. “The way we’ve been trying to play and build our game and deal with adversity and the identity we want to have. We don’t want to let any of those habits slip.
“Obviously we’re still playing for a lot — we’re trying to keep top spot in the division.”
