The Atlantic Division’s defending regular-season champs pass the 41-game mark in a place no one imagined they’d be: three teams removed from a wild-card berth.
No question, the Toronto Maple Leafs were poised to take a step back when they let difference-maker Mitch Marner walk and replaced him with depth forwards.
But who saw such disturbing defensive play, such a long parade of injuries, or such a disastrous power play digging the Leafs into a (possibly unrecoverable) hole before Christmas?
The optimistic view after a 19-win first half in Leafland goes like this: Auston Matthews, the 108-year-old franchise’s most prolific goal scorer at just age 28, has burst out of the holiday break ablaze and is playing his best hockey in 18 months. The division is middling and for the taking. And William Nylander should be healthy soon, right?
The pessimist can point to the club’s inability to stay healthy, string together W’s, hold leads, or bank points during a home-heavy, travel-light first half.
The second half brings all the cross-continental flights, tougher opponents, and the most debatable trade deadline strategy in the Matthews-Nylander era.
Yep, Brad Treliving’s bunch is in for one doozy of a back half — and that’s because of how poorly it performed in the first half.
Key stats
Record: 20-15-7 (6th in division, 17th in NHL)
Goals per game: 3.36 (5th in NHL)
Goals against per game: 3.29 (24th in NHL)
Power play: 16.4 per cent (25th in NHL)
Penalty kill: 84.1 per cent (3rd in NHL)
Best surprise: Troy Stecher and Dennis Hildeby (tie)
Not since — who? Gustav Forsling? — has a waiver pickup made the resounding impact Stecher has on his fourth Canadian team.
Fighting for his career and undersized, undrafted underdogs everywhere, the right-shot defenceman went from an Edmonton afterthought to a Berube essential.
For nearly minimum wage, Stecher has averaged 20:30 over 23 nights, mostly in a shutdown role, while contributing two goals, eight points, 22 blocks, and a new subset of Leafs Nation (Troy’s Boys for life!).
If Stecher has any competition amongst the fan base for new favourite, it’s third-string goalie Hildeby.
The whispering giant was intended to groom his game in the minors but has already made 15 NHL appearances, papering over indefinite absences by, first, Joseph Woll and now Anthony Stolarz.
Despite often popping in for mid-game relief, “Beasty” has posted a sparkling .914 save percentage. He’s performed well enough to demand starts outside of back-to-back situations and give management reason to ponder a position-of-strength trade when/if all three netminders are healthy at the same time.
Biggest disappointment: Team defence
Lots to choose from here, as a putrid power play and constant health issues also rate high on the disappointment scale.
But watching the NHL’s eighth-best defence (according to goals allowed) tumble to 27th by Game 41, despite decent goaltending support and all top eight blue-liners returning to the roster, has ultimately been the Leafs’ first-half undoing.
Reasons for the falloff are plentiful.
Chris Tanev’s three injuries, the latest (groin) likely sending him to the surgeon, have been costly. Fellow top-four defencemen Brandon Carlo and now Jake McCabe have also been sidelined for a spell.
No question, one-time Selke finalist Marner’s departure hurt in this regard. And giving pucks away at a league-high rate of 16.5 times per 60 minutes ain’t helping matters.
For concerning stretches, the Leafs have been porous off the rush, struggled to exit their zone, and failed to lock down leads.
Among the 20 times they scored the first goal, they’ve only won 10 of those games.
McCabe (plus-26), Stecher (plus-11), and Italy-bound Oliver Ekman-Larsson (25 points with minimal power-play shifts) have thrived. But third-pairing guys Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers have taken a step back.
Most concerning: Morgan Rielly — loaded with a $7.5 million AAV and full no-move clause — may be en route to a 50-point showing but is also a team-worst dash-13.
Once again, Rielly is running through an assortment of partners and is ending up with a hung head at the end of the opposition’s highlight clips.
“He’s played some real good hockey for us this year,” Berube defends. “I’m not worried about it. I think he’ll get back to the level he was at.”
The entire defence needs to find that level, fast. Then maintain it.
Big question for the second half: Can they make the playoffs?
Only the most masochistic Maple Leafs fan would dare surf on over to MoneyPuck.com/Predictions.htm, the NHL’s landing page for playoff prognostications, these days.
Money Puck’s model places Toronto’s odds of extending its post-season streak to a league-best 10 years at 21.3 per cent, the third-lowest odds of all 16 Eastern Conference teams.
Despite gathering points in seven straight, the Leafs are on pace for just 89 points, while the wild-card cutoff mark projects to 94 points.
Treliving states he’s not ready to wave the white flag. And giving up on a campaign in which Matthews and Nylander are in their prime — and the GM and head coach could lose their jobs if they don’t reach Game 83 — feels like a last resort.
Hopping on a heater prior to the Olympic break is imperative here.
Otherwise, the new “big question” becomes “How much can we get for Bobby McMann and Scott Laughton and does anyone else on the roster look appealing to a contender?”
