TORONTO — As the Toronto Maple Leafs get set to flip the calendar to 2025, it’s clear they’ll be coming upon pressure points that will bring answers to some massive question marks, which makes them awfully compelling.
Years of playoff disappointment has led to a frothy nervousness around a group that holds so much promise, but the prospect of it all slipping away, of there being an actual end to the vaunted Core Four Era, seems one final failure from reality.
But the good news for Leafs fans is that this team does seem legitimately different, it still has elite talent and it seems like they have quality goaltending. With that alone, they’ve got a chance.
Is this finally the year? That’s a fair question, as there’s a viable path to success.
But the path will fork, and we have some idea what outcomes await them if they don’t make a deep playoff run.
And so, let’s talk about 2025, but really about the 2025 portion of this season, and what it will hold for the Maple Leafs.
-
-
NHL on Sportsnet
Livestream Hockey Night in Canada, Scotiabank Wednesday Night Hockey, the Oilers, Flames, Canucks, out-of-market matchups, the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the NHL Draft.
The divisional battles
A hallmark of this Leafs core has been, “When opportunity knocks, double bolt the door and turn the lights off.” They lost to Columbus and Montreal in playoff series, which feels crazy to even type.
Well, in 2025 opportunity knocks in the form of a softer top-half of the Atlantic Division. At a .622 winning percentage, the Leafs are currently tied for first with Florida. For context, .622 would get you fourth in the Metro, fourth in the Pacific, and third in the Central.
The last couple seasons have seen the Leafs put up comparable points, but one of Florida or Boston has run away with the first seed. The Leafs have also fallen a breath short in round one, losing in Game 7 overtime last year. A first-seed finish doesn’t mean advancing is on an easy path, but if they get a two per cent more favourable matchup, that might be the difference.
Matthews injury watch
A major source of 2025 Leafs drama will be the injury Auston Matthews has been playing with, and how it progresses.
He wasn’t himself from training camp on, he went to Germany for treatment, missed nearly four weeks, returned, and still didn’t look right. Now he’s missed five more games and, well, nobody really knows what comes next. They cannot win a Stanley Cup with him in the press box, full stop.
So the options are, maybe his injury heals with rest (the two weeks of the Four Nations Face-off?), he finds his form, and the Leafs get hot with Matthews at peak form. Maybe it stays nagging, he tries to play through it and struggles, and they’re a weaker version of themselves. Maybe he tries it again, it isn’t improved, and so he goes on LTIR to let it heal while they spend his cap hit and make a huge push at playoffs. Maybe he needs surgery and they legitimately lose him for the year. Everything is on that table at this point.
Non-Matthews injury watch
Maybe only slightly less significant is the ability of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll to both be available when it counts, and to be at their best. Their injury histories are concerning, but when healthy, they’ve both looked like all-stars. So can they handle the workloads, will they be available when called upon?
This ‘injury watch’ list extends beyond those most essential players though. Bobby McMann has emerged as a 25-goal scorer (by pace), and he missed playoffs last year. Will he be available? How about Max Pacioretty, who was such an injury concern he has games-played bonuses in his contract? Jani Hakanpaa? Connor Timmins has a spotty injury record. Chris Tanev blocks an insane amount of shots, does he stay lucky?
Every team has injury risk, this is hockey after all. But it feels like the Leafs have a big number of important people with a history of bad luck. Don’t walk under any ladders, I guess?
Core Four contracts
Mitch Marner needs a new contract, and John Tavares does too.
With Marner, the Leafs may want to see another playoff run before deciding if they want to commit long-term, which leaves the door open for him to leave. Or Marner could sign a deal around this time, as William Nylander did. Either way, it’s likely to be weirdly dramatic.
Tavares is likely forced to wait until the season ends, as it seems he loves being a Maple Leaf and will likely stick around if the team thinks it makes sense for them. But keeping Tavares would be a statement unto itself, and should indicate the direction the Leafs plan to go with their roster.
There’s going to be at least one big trade
The Leafs are good, fairly close to a top-tier contender, but things happen during deadline week. All the top teams buy and get a little better and separate further from the have-nots. And so, to make gains, you have to get significantly better. That’s where the Leafs find themselves, and they’re hyper aware of that. But by all accounts, and logic itself, this is a year the Leafs have to go big, push their chips in, get weird.
They need another legitimate centre, could use a left winger, and may well need one more quality defencemen. How crazy will they get?
Which is related to:
Is Brendan Shanahan involved in a bigger push?
It’s hard to imagine the Leafs president surviving yet another first-round exit with this same core he’s backed over, and over, and over. And so, will he push his GM to throw caution to the wind? Will this pressure give them a more “eff it, do it” attitude than they’ve had when contemplating big swings in the past?
Strength of schedule is in their favour
SportLogiq ran some numbers for us here, looking at each team’s points percentage, then averaging out all the remaining opponents for every team. Using that, only five teams play a softer schedule of remaining opponents than the Leafs. Now, other things play in to difficulty of schedule, like back-to-backs, of which the Leafs have quite a few, but it’s still at least good news. (The bad news: Tampa and Florida have top-five easy schedules remaining too. Vegas, Washington, and Ottawa round out that group.)
If you’re curious, the hardest remaining schedules belong to the Detroit Red Wings (hardest), followed by the New York Rangers, then the New York Islanders.
Will Craig Berube’s style make the difference in playoffs?
This may be the biggest question of all, as the team has cut out its risk taking, and tried to play a grittier, simpler game. If you squint, you can understand how at times in the regular season, it may look uglier. You just can’t play that all-out style 82 times plus playoffs. But when it is playoffs, maybe you’ll love how the Leafs look?
Maybe?
In all, 2025 is going to significantly alter the future of this team through its contracts, its trades, and really, its post-season success. It could see the end of the core, or of top management, but it could also be — dare I say it — it could also be The Year.
It’s all on the table, and with this Leafs team, you know you’re going to be served a bit of everything.
