Current cap space: $60,602
Projected deadline space: $130,527
Pending free agents:
UFAs:
• Frederik Andersen, 31, $5 million
• Zach Hyman, 28, $2.25 million
• Wayne Simmonds, 32, $1.5 million
• Alex Galchenyuk, 27, $1.05 million
• Zach Bogosian, 30, $1 million
• Alexander Barabanov, 26, $925,000
• Jimmy Vesey, 27, $900,000
• Jason Spezza, 37, $700,000
• Joe Thornton, 41, $700,000
• Travis Boyd, 27, $700,000
RFAs:
• Travis Dermott, 24, $874,125
• Nic Petan, 25, $775,000
• Denis Malgin, 24, $700,000
• Joseph Woll, 22, $800,000
Draft picks
2021: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th
2022: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
Needs
You don’t invite Amazon Prime Video cameras to follow your team for a season-long docuseries titled All or Nothing if you’re not pushing to win a championship. If there isn’t the belief that you have a core that is capable.
General manager Kyle Dubas has never shied from shaking up or improving the pieces around his nucleus of offensive explosiveness. And although some might view the return of a healthy Wayne Simmonds and Jack Campbell as enough to get the Maple Leafs back on track, Dubas should account for more injuries and do his best to patch up the weak spots.
We see two significant areas of need: a top-nine forward (either a top-six winger or a true third-line centre) and another battle-tested defenceman, preferably one that excels on the penalty kill.
Toronto’s top six operates better with Zach Hyman causing turnovers and charging on the forecheck, but the third line is weakened whenever he’s promoted.
Seeking a 3C like Buffalo’s Eric Staal or Columbus’s Nick Foligno is one route. Another is renting a winger like Buffalo’s Taylor Hall, New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri, Anaheim’s Rickard Rakell, or Nashville’s Mikael Granlund or Erik Haula.
On the back end, Nashville’s cap-friendly Mattias Ekholm is the crown jewel of the trade-bait board — but his suitors will be plentiful. Smart depth options include Columbus’s David Savard, Buffalo’s Brandon Montour or Colin Miller, and Detroit’s Marc Staal.
Savard and Staal are the fearless, shot-blocking, penalty-killing types Toronto could use. The Leafs’ PK has sunk to 21st overall (75.6 per cent).
Any deal Dubas makes will require some creative cap management and, like, some salary retention by the rebuilding team or a third party. And inducting any U.S.-located players will require a lengthy quarantine, so Dubas will be incentivized to improve his roster in advance of the April 12 deadline.
Potential Assets to Move
Alexander Kerfoot: Kerfoot falls into the same middle-class, middle-six category as off-season trade-aways Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen. He is a useful player with a palatable contract. That makes him movable. Kerfoot, 26, is versatile enough to play centre or wing, plus pitch in on special teams. He brings a mix of speed and grease that allows him to complement high-end skill players, and his stock is higher now than it was a year ago. Clearing his $3.5-million contract (through 2023) would give Dubas room to stickhandle.
Rodion Amirov: To get value, you must give value. If Dubas was willing to trade his 2020 first-round pick prior to the selection, why not after? The talented Amirov has nine goals in the KHL as a teenager and could be a player. His stock is high now, but by the time he’s ready to contribute to the Maple Leafs, their window may have shrunk.
Rasmus Sandin or Timothy Liljegren: It would take quite an impact player in return to deal away one of the Leafs’ top defence prospects — especially after trading Mikko Lehtonen in early March — but these are the types of bold moves that should be on the table. Could Sandin help the Leafs’ chances in a seven-game series this spring as much as, say, Ekholm or Mississauga native Vince Dunn?
Draft picks: The Maple Leafs already spent their 2021 third- and seventh-round picks but could definitely consider surrendering their first- or second-round choice. Dubas has never been shy about shedding a (presumably late) first-round pick to help the present. He did it in 2019 (Muzzin) and 2020 (to shed Patrick Marleau’s salary). Why not 2021?
Seattle Expansion Considerations
As a rule, Dubas prefers trading for players with a little term remaining on their current contract. Hence the deadline acquisitions of Jake Muzzin (2019) and Campbell (2020), both of whom had a season-and-a-half left on their deals with L.A. and would therefore be available for two playoff runs with the Leafs. That extra term is also what makes Nashville’s Filip Forsberg and Ekholm (both UFA in 2022) so attractive.
The catch this season is that bringing in a high-end talent with term also means either (a) protecting that player in the expansion draft or (b) risk losing him after a short rental.
Toronto already has four core forwards (John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander) and four core defencemen (Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, Justin Holl and Muzzin) it would rather shield from Ron Francis.
Unless Dubas elects to go the blockbuster route, this might be the year to simply rent and release.
