One year after playing an abbreviated 60-game season, Major League Baseball is back for 162. But as the rhythms of a traditional baseball season return, teams will also face unprecedented challenges and fans may be in for some surprises.
From strategies and sleeper teams to breakout candidates and award winners, our MLB insiders weigh in on the upcoming season. Plus, which teams will make the playoffs? And who will win it all?
Last year, Jeff Blair correctly called a Rays-Dodgers World Series in this space, so disregard the following predictions at your own risk…
ROUNDTABLE QUESTIONS
After a 60-game season, pitchers league-wide are due for a major increase in workload. This will shape strategy week to week and inning to inning. How will this impact the game in 2021?
Jeff Blair
Well, let’s see. Three teams are looking at possibly going with six-man rotations and two of them – the Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates – stink. They’re doing it for preservation. The Texas Rangers are thinking of going with two sets of tandem starters (welcome to the seven-man rotation) and who the hell knows what hocus-pocus the Tampa Bay Rays have in mind to overcome the loss of Charlie Morton and Blake Snell. The Miami Marlins will have Sixto Sanchez start at their alternate site. He’s a favourite for National League rookie of the year. The difference between a 60 game and 162 game regular season schedule is about 900 innings. That’s a lot of extra room to cover… and a lot of potential carnage. And it’s not just in the Majors: the minor leagues were shut down last season and Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore said he had some real concern about some of the amateur pitching he and his scouts saw this winter and spring.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
We should brace ourselves for record IL stints for two reasons. One: pitchers will get hurt as they go from 60 games to 162. And two: teams will be so wary of injuries that they’ll use the IL as a resting spot for pitchers who need rest but haven’t fully broken down.
So, what happens when more pitchers are on the injured list? Teams dip into the minors for depth and use their triple-A teams liberally. That works to an extent, but you can only game the system for so long before reality hits and the need for arms is once again urgent. Simply put, you want the 20th pitcher on your staff to be good, because he’s going to be pitching either way.
Shi Davidi
I really hope this doesn’t happen, but my fear is that the jump in workload – combined with the ongoing push toward max-effort pitching — just shreds arms all around the game this year. Attempts to prevent that will include more spot starts, extra rest and attempts to more evenly distribute the innings workload, but there’s just a ton of risk in moving for a couple of laps around the track to circling an entire city. For some, the effects of the jump may only start showing up in 2022 and with the disruption to the minor-leagues last year, it could be a few years before the industry resets.
Arden Zwelling
Someday, there will be no more starters and relievers — only out-getters who get outs whenever asked based on matchups, recovery and current form. And this year I think you’ll see a continuation of that on-going shift from traditional, five-man rotation set-ups to more fluid, flexible pitching staffs. You’ll see plenty of clubs ending up with double-digit arms up over 70 innings but below 150. You’ll see more tandem starts, openers and bullpen games. And you’ll see injuries. Lots and lots of injuries.
Many consider the Padres to be baseball’s most exciting team. Beyond San Diego and Toronto, which team will you go out of your way to watch this season?
Shi Davidi
As always, the Los Angeles Angels. Shohei Ohtani trying the two-way thing remains among the game’s most intriguing players. Mike Trout is still Mike Trout and new GM Perry Minasian made some interesting, unheralded pickups in shortstop Jose Iglesias, outfielder Dexter Fowler, starters Alex Cobb and Jose Quintana and closer Raisel Iglesias, among others. In raising the floor on a team that for years has been veneer beyond Trout, maybe this is the year the Angels finally stop squandering the best player on the planet.
Arden Zwelling
The Angels because they’re on late and they feature the two most compelling players on the planet. The Los Angeles Dodgers because they’re crazy talented and there’s a lot to be learned from their approach. The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox because they’re fun. And whether it’s a success or a disaster, it’ll be hard to look away from the Mets.
Jeff Blair
I’m interested in seeing whether the Dodgers can take a run at the MLB record of 116 wins set by the 2001 Seattle Mariners and 1906 Chicago Cubs and then break the curse of 116-win teams: the Mariners lost in the American League Championship Series that year and the Cubs lost in the World Series. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Chicago White Sox, who are going to be all manner of fun, and the Kansas City Royals… especially when Bobby Witt Jr. joins them.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
The New York Mets, since Francisco Lindor has a chance to change the whole vibe around that team. The White Sox, because – let’s be honest – when was the last time the White Sox were really scary? I’d say 2005 or 2006. Of course I’ll watch the Angels, too, because Mike Trout is still as good as it gets and Shohei Ohtani might do things we’ve never seen before. And lastly, I’ll throw in the Oakland Athletics, since those late start times are a nice option for those of us in the East and I like their home uniforms and ballpark.
Set aside the obvious contenders for a moment, and give us one sleeper team nobody’s talking about. Not necessarily a World Series winner, but a team that can surprise.
Shi Davidi
The Boston Red Sox might be better than we think. They’ve slipped from the public consciousness since trading Mookie Betts but made a bunch of clever adds like Kike Hernandez, Franchy Cordero, Hunter Renfroe, Garrett Richards and Adam Ottavino — and they have the possibility of a post-TJ return of Chris Sale at some point this year. With holdovers such as Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Alex Verdugo, there’s more talent there than people may think.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
The Milwaukee Brewers could hold their own, especially in that division and with the combination of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader and Devin Williams logging lots of innings. The Red Sox are better than they get credit for. The Philadelphia Phillies should hit well and the top of their rotation is great. I don’t buy the idea that the Royals are going to be any good.
Jeff Blair
I mentioned the young Royals, who are getting a lot of love from the national media, but they haven’t even slid under the covers yet. They’re not a sleeper, but I’m surprised at the under-current of a lack of respect for the Braves. I think they’re decent value to win the World Series at +1000. Sticking in the National League East, the Phillies were a bullpen away from being really good. I think they’re on the right path this season.
Arden Zwelling
I think the Cincinnati Reds could surprise in the NL Central. No one’s truly trying to win that division — and even without Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati’s pitching staff is still strong. Plus, the Reds have quietly become quite analytically savvy of late, with a growing reputation for helping pitchers get the most out of their arms. Watch them fix Jeff Hoffman, unearth something in Jose De Leon, and produce developmental success stories in Tyler Mahle and Tejay Antone. Let late-20’s pitchers like Luis Castillo, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims come into their own; get strong rookie seasons from Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India; mix in bounce-back campaigns from Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Nick Castellanos. There’s a real path to a division title for this club.
Blue Jays Newsletter
Every year we see a handful of players take major strides forward and emerge as stars. Who do you see taking that step in 2021?
Arden Zwelling
If he stays healthy — big if with him, admittedly — this could be the year Byron Buxton becomes a superstar. Joe Musgrove quietly took a big step last season and could take another pitching at Petco Park for one of MLB’s best teams. And Ke’Bryan Hayes is a name to familiarize yourself with now because you’re going to be hearing it an awful lot in years to come.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Some of the players I see taking big steps forward in 2021: Colin Poche, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ty France, Alec Bohm, John Brebbia, Kyle Tucker, Tyler Mahle, Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Dustin May and Sixto Sanchez. Some are stars already while some are virtually unheard of, but all have room to take big steps forward in 2021.
Shi Davidi
Let’s go all hoser breakouts on this one and look for big things from Josh Naylor and Cal Quantrill in Cleveland, Tyler O’Neill in St. Louis and Nick Pivetta with Boston. Naylor drew some buzz during the post-season when he went 5-for-7 with three doubles and a homer in two games against the Yankees and has really needed steady opportunity. It looks like he’s set to get one in Cleveland, where his offensive gifts will shine. Quantrill similarly looks set to get some run in the Cleveland bullpen, while O’Neill, coming off a Gold Glove win, will now bat in a lineup that also includes Nolan Arenado. Pivetta had a couple of good outings with the Red Sox last year after coming over from Philadelphia ahead of the deadline, and combined with the flashes he’s shown in the past, perhaps now is his time.
Jeff Blair
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., has been more hype than star so far but now he has a hugely talented and deep lineup around him. And how about Shohei Ohtani, who threw 100 m.p.h. and hit a 468-foot home run with an exit velocity of 107 m.p.h. this spring? If he can settle in for a healthy year…
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Shi Davidi
AL: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Blue Jays*, Twins*
NL: Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres*, Mets*
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
Ben Nicholson-Smith
AL: Yankees, White Sox, Astros, Twins*, Blue Jays*
NL: Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves*, Padres*
World Series: Yankees over Dodgers
Arden Zwelling
AL: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Astros*, Rays*
NL: Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Padres*, Mets*
World Series: Dodgers over Angels
Jeff Blair
AL: Rays, White Sox, Angels, Yankees*, Twins*
NL: Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres*, Phillies*
World Series: Braves over White Sox
AWARD PREDICTIONS
Arden Zwelling
American League
RoY: Randy Arozarena
Cy Young: Lucas Giolito
MVP: Anthony Rendon
National League
RoY: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Cy Young: Walker Buehler
MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr.
Jeff Blair
American League
RoY: Randy Arozarena
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
MVP: Mike Trout
National League
RoY: Ian Anderson
Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
MVP: Mookie Betts
Shi Davidi
American League
RoY: Randy Arozarena
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
MVP: Mike Trout
National League
RoY: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
American League
RoY: Andrew Vaughn
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
MVP: Mike Trout
National League
RoY: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
MVP: Juan Soto
