It took a few months longer than expected, but at long last opening day 2020 is here.
With the MLB season finally upon us, we asked some Sportsnet baseball writers to weigh in with predictions for a season unlike any we’ve seen before.
Which players deserve our attention in this shortened season? Which teams are on the brink of a breakout? And what sort of strategic changes should we expect under these unprecedented circumstances? Here’s how our panelists see the season unfolding…
ROUNDTABLE QUESTIONS
Let’s start with the most important question of all: how confident are you that MLB will be able to complete the season as planned?
Shi Davidi
Not confident at all, and the only reason to believe they will finish things is because of the negligent leadership in parts of the United States that still regards COVID-19 as a common cold. The numbers available from the monitoring phase of MLB’s testing plan suggest that teams have been doing a good job since intake. How travel changes all that is a great unknown. One sick umpire can easily cause outbreaks on two teams and it’s a slippery slope from there. I love that baseball is back, but I worry for people in the game.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
After what we’ve seen in the last four or five months, how could you not have doubts? The pandemic that led to the suspension of the season hasn’t gone anywhere, and despite everyone’s best intentions there’s absolutely no predicting what comes next. As a lifelong baseball fan, I really hope MLB can safely complete this season safely. And I don’t expect players or owners to give up on this possibility easily. But starting the season is one thing. The real challenge – keeping staff and players safe while teams crisscross the U.S. on a weekly basis – is just beginning.
Arden Zwelling
As long as U.S. leadership continues to take its “if they die, they die” approach to the pandemic, I think the season gets played. Americans are completely desensitized to soaring case counts and a rate of 800 deaths per day, so why would a few positive tests across MLB give anyone pause? The show goes on.
Jeff Blair
Based on the manner in which European soccer leagues have been able to re-start without any significant impact from positive tests – even in the United Kingdom, which has been only slightly less sloppy than the U.S. in handling the pandemic, players have been permitted to commute between their homes and facilities and enjoy what passes for a normal social life these days much as baseball players – I don’t see why baseball can’t pull this off. The real test, though, will come when a player tests positive in the middle of the regular season. There’s no trust between players and owners at this point and baseball will need to prove then it has a plan in place to protect players and their families in that random circumstance. MLS had a horrible start in their quarantine bubble in Orlando. Two teams were forced to leave. Yet there has been no outbreak and folks have moved on. Can baseball be that effective? We’ll see.
In a shortened season, which player are you most fascinated to watch?
Ben Nicholson-Smith
For me it’s probably Luis Robert of the White Sox. He hit .328/.376/.624 in the upper minors last year while hitting 32 home runs and stealing 36 bases. Because he signed an extension in the spring, he’ll break camp at the MLB level – no service time manipulation here. In 2020, he has a chance to establish himself as one of the league’s most exciting players. Now it might now happen, of course. He’s just 22 years old! But the possibility intrigues me.
Arden Zwelling
From Cody Bellinger to Jose Altuve to Christian Yelich, we’ve seen plenty of young big-league hitters take massive strides in their third MLB season. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s about to begin his, and I bet he’ll have a bonkers year. Last season, over a 60-game stretch from May 6 through August 13, he hit .315/.390/.604 and put up 3.4 fWAR. That could be his floor.
Shi Davidi
Shohei Ohtani is back from Tommy John surgery and back to being a two-way player. Minus the grind of 162 games, he’s got a chance to put up video game numbers on both sides of the ball.
Jeff Blair
Shohei Ohtani’s pitching/position player balance is going to be intriguing and if the Angels are somehow in it down the stretch … watching how he’s used in a sprint to the end will be fascinating. But I just picked Ohtani so I wouldn’t be called a homer for picking Bo Bichette. He’s the player I’m most interested in seeing because at this time, I think we could all use as much Bo Bichette in our life as possible. Sixty games? I bet he finishes in the top-10 in batting average.
Which team that missed last year’s playoffs could take the next step and reach the post-season in 2020?
Arden Zwelling
I think the Reds will surprise. Trevor Bauer won’t be leaving anything in the tank, Sonny Gray’s rediscovered his form, Luis Castillo’s ready to break out, and Wade Miley’s a strong No. 4. They’re adding Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas to the heart of a lineup that already includes Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez. Shogo Akiyama might win rookie of the year. Cincinnati’s front office has made win-now moves over the last 12 months, and I’d expect that to continue at the trade deadline. The NL Central’s wide open and the Reds have the right mix of established veterans and intriguing upside talent to take advantage of it.
Jeff Blair
I’m bullish on the Chicago White Sox even without Michael Kopech. They have thump and they’re in a division with the remnants of the Cleveland, the Tigers and Royals and they get the Pirates and a couple of other teams on a downward slope in inter-league play. Plus … they have Eddie!!!!! Walk the parrot: I have them earning a wild-card spot.
Shi Davidi
Will I regret saying this? Maybe, but feels like there’s a window of opportunity for the Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs and Brewers are a bit vulnerable, and the Cardinals are no Uber team in the Central, while the Reds are a team on the rise, have Trevor Bauer at the front of their staff and surplus depth among their position players after adding Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama. I’m not certain it’s going to work, the kudos to them for actively trying to win.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
I’d love to take the White Sox here, since they have a chance to be a really fun team in short order, but I’m going with the Mets. They already had a strong pitching staff led by the best pitcher in the National League, but over the winter they added Rick Porcello and Dellin Betances, too. Their run prevention should be really good, so as long as Pete Alonso & Co. can hit a little bit, the Mets could return to the playoffs this year.
We know fans won’t be in the stands this year, but how different will the game be between the lines? Do you anticipate different strategies or approaches to player usage?
Jeff Blair
Kevin Cash and the Tampa Rays have had three months of free time to game the system. You just know they’ve got something funky going on down there. Never mind the four-man outfield … how about a five-man infield regularly?
I like the idea of starting an extra inning with a runner on second; baseball is the only sport where people complain about overtime. Shout out as well to the institution of the designated hitter in the NL: may the notion of pitchers hitting burn in hell forever …
Shi Davidi
The Rays experimenting with a two-man outfield should be enough to convince you that teams are ready to get weird. I’d expect it to play out most obviously in terms of pitching usage, where the 60-game sprints allows for unusual inning distributions across pitching staffs. Trevor Bauer floated the idea of a four-man rotation and I wonder if some team will consider doing that for all of September, the flexibility created by the limited workload beforehand.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
In recent years, we’ve seen traditional pitcher usage upended. Six- and seven-inning starts have become less and less common and teams have relied more heavily on their ever-expanding bullpens. In a shortened season, I expect that trend to accelerate. Every game will matter this year, so managers can’t afford to let their starters work through trouble the way they once did. Plus, rosters are bigger than ever, allowing clubs to carry all kinds of relievers. I think it’ll add up to a regular season that’s a little reminiscent of playoff baseball from a pitcher usage standpoint.
Arden Zwelling
I think we’ll just see the continued evolution of trends that have played out over the last several years — increased shifting, position-less players lining up all over the diamond, more creative deployment of pitching staffs. Every MLB ballpark now has Hawk-Eye cameras feeding analysts a deluge of player tracking data, and every team is using Motus sleeves and Catapult wearables to measure workload, fatigue and effectiveness. Innovative teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers will continue to use that data to implement novel strategies and make unconventional decisions that help their teams win. And the rest of baseball will watch, learn and keep trying to catch up.
AWARDS PREDICTIONS
Jeff Blair
American League
MVP: Gleyber Torres
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
RoY: Luis Robert
National League
MVP: Mookie Betts
Cy Young: Max Scherzer
RoY: Dylan Carlson
Arden Zwelling
American League
MVP: Shohei Ohtani
Cy Young: Mike Clevinger
RoY: Luis Robert
National League
MVP: Juan Soto
Cy Young: Walker Buehler
RoY: Shogo Akiyama
Shi Davidi
American League
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
RoY: Luis Robert
National League
MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr.
Cy Young: Trevor Bauer
RoY: Dustin May
Ben Nicholson-Smith
American League
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
RoY: Luis Robert
National League
MVP: Mookie Betts
Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
RoY: Gavin Lux
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Ben Nicholson-Smith
AL: Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rays*, Athletics*
NL: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets*, Cardinals*
World Series: Yankees over Dodgers
Shi Davidi
AL: Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rays*, Angels*
NL: Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Nationals*, Cardinals*
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
Arden Zwelling
AL: Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rays*, Angels*
NL: Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Nationals*, Brewers*
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
Jeff Blair
AL: Rays, Twins, Astros, Yankees*, White Sox*
NL: Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Nationals*, Cardinals*
World Series: Rays over Dodgers
