After wrapping up a series win over the Washington Nationals just over a week ago, the Toronto Blue Jays left town on a six-game road trip. They held a 73-61 record at the time and sat 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers for the third and final wild-card spot.
Fast forward to Friday, and things stack up a little differently in the AL post-season picture.
The Blue Jays’ good, but certainly not perfect, West Coast swing helped them leapfrog the Rangers and gain ground on both the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. Toronto also increased its FanGraphs’ playoff odds by nearly 20 per cent, with series wins over the Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics.
Now, coming back to Rogers Centre for 10 straight games, the Blue Jays will wrap up their stretch against MLB basement dwellers with a weekend series against the Kansas City Royals. Although you can’t look past any team in the majors, next week’s potentially season-defining four-game set with the Rangers looms large. With Texas hosting the Athletics this weekend, there are no guarantees as to who will be in the third wild-card spot when Monday rolls around.
With fewer than 30 games remaining in the regular season, here’s the latest on the tighter-than-ever AL wild-card race.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
No. 1 and AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (88-51): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (80-61): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (73-67) vs. No. 6 Toronto Blue Jays (77-66)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (85-56) vs. No. 5 Seattle Mariners (79-61)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
With already thin playoff hopes, the Boston Red Sox dropped their series earlier this week to the Tampa Bay Rays. As we head into the final three weeks of the season, barring a strong stretch of play from the Red Sox, the AL wild-card race looks like it will come down to the three AL West contenders and the Blue Jays.
Now, on the outside looking in, the Rangers will need a dramatic reversal of fortunes to save their season. After being outscored 39-10 while being swept by the Astros this week, Texas is 5-15 over its last 20 games.
The New York Yankees won their third straight series this week — with two of those coming over the Detroit Tigers — and continue to hang around in the post-season discussion. Although it’s unlikely that they make a legitimate push, we might find out exactly where they stand with their next seven games coming against the Milwaukee Brewers and Red Sox.
ONE THING TO WATCH WITH EACH AL WILD CONTENDER THIS WEEKEND
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve. Perhaps the hottest hitter in baseball, Altuve was on a mission against the Rangers. Before going hitless in the series finale, the 33-year-old second baseman smacked five home runs in six at-bats, leading the charge offensively. Since Altuve came off the IL on July 27, he has slashed .365/.437/.628. Houston is set to match up with the San Diego Padres in a three-game series this weekend. Padres’ starters have the second-best ERA in MLB, and with NL Cy Young candidate Blake Snell on the mound Friday, Altuve’s hot hand will be put to the test.
Seattle Mariners: Andres Munoz and the bullpen. After being named the American League Reliever of the Month for August, Munoz allowed runs in his first three outings of September, picking up loss in two of those games. After trading Paul Sewald at the trade deadline, the Mariners have handed the closer’s duties to the 24-year-old right-hander. He picked up his first save of the month in Thursday’s win over the Rays. But over the past week, Seattle’s bullpen has looked a little shaky. It has a 5.09 ERA since Sept. 1, and while that is a small sample of innings pitched, the bullpen looks like it could emerge as a weakness down the stretch — especially this weekend against Tampa Bay, which has scored the fourth-most runs in baseball in the final three innings of games.
Toronto Blue Jays: Will Bo Bichette return this weekend? On Tuesday, Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling reported that Bichette was tracking toward a return. Although the recent performances of Ernie Clement and Santiago Espinal have softened the blow of not having Bichette in the lineup, there is no doubt that Toronto could use its All-Star shortstop back. The 25-year-old is eligible to come off the injured list Friday, and has been running, fielding and hitting in the build-up for his return.
Texas Rangers: Evan Carter. After placing American League RBI leader Adolis Garcia on the injured list, the Rangers recalled Carter — MLB Pipeline’s No. 8 prospect. A left-handed hitting outfielder, Carter was picked in the second round of the 2020 draft and has hit at each level on his way to the big-league club. After winning Texas’ 2022 Minor League Player of the Year award, the 21-year-old has hit .288/.413/.450 across three levels in 2023. With the recent success of some triple-A call-ups across the league, it will be worth keeping an eye on Carter’s performance this weekend against the A’s to see if he will hit the ground running or face an adjustment period to begin his career.
Boston Red Sox: The starting pitching. No team’s rotation has a higher ERA (6.88) over the last two weeks than Boston’s. Over that span, the Red Sox are 3-8 and have used six starters, of which only Chris Sale has an ERA under 4.00. Boston came into the season expected to be able to score runs but struggle to prevent them, and that’s exactly what’s happened. So, as they kick off a weekend series against the Orioles, the Red Sox are sending Tanner Houck, Sale and Brayan Bello to the mound, in hopes of ending Baltimore’s five-game win streak. With Texas and Toronto playing “easier” series, a series loss to the Orioles has the chance to send Boston tumbling down even farther in the standings.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 98.1% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 96.4%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 98.5% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.7%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.6%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 88.2% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 86.6%
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 61.8% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 65.7%
Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 47.5% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 50.2%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 4.0% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 1.2%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 0.5% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.3%
