As the Toronto Blue Jays continue to make their way through this portion of their schedule against MLB’s bottom feeders, they have slowly caught up to a Texas Rangers team that is now 4-13 over its last 17 games.
After Monday’s 6-5 win over the Oakland Athletics, Toronto was guaranteed to gain ground on either the Rangers or Houston Astros, who kicked off their final series of the season against one another in Arlington.
Despite two home runs from Corey Seager, the Astros took the series opener 13-6, and poured on six runs in the seventh inning — meaning the Blue Jays moved a half-game back of Texas for the final AL wild-card spot.
On Tuesday night, the Rangers will get some much-needed help as right-hander Nathan Eovaldi returns to the mound for the first time since July 18. The 33-year-old had been on the injured list with a forearm strain and will line up opposite Framber Valdez as Texas looks to right the ship.
While Eovaldi versus Valdez is an intriguing pitching matchup, former New York Mets teammates, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, will square off for the first time as AL West foes in the series finale on Wednesday.
For the Blue Jays, seeing the two teams they’re chasing down potentially wear each other out can only be seen as a positive, as long as they continue to take care of their own business.
As things continue to heat up, let’s check in on the AL wild card picture as a whole to see where things stand with September baseball well underway.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
No. 1 and AL East-Leading Baltimore Orioles (86-51): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Seattle Mariners (77-60): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (72-66) vs. No. 6 Texas Rangers (76-61)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (83-55) vs. No. 5 Houston Astros (78-61)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
All three of the AL West teams in post-season contention lost a series over the weekend. Seattle dropped two of three to the Mets, the Astros were swept by the Yankees and the Rangers secured a single win against the Twins on Adolis Garcia’s walk-off home run Sunday.
That allowed both the Blue Jays and Red Sox to gain ground in the wild-card chase after respective series wins over the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals. However, Toronto and Boston aren’t the only two sneaking up the standings. The New York Yankees are winners of six of their last seven, moving eight games back of the Rangers.
While the Yankees still remain the longest of all longshots to actually make the playoffs, their resurgence of late is something to watch for teams, like the Blue Jays, that have games remaining against this seemingly reinvigorated New York squad.
LOOKING AT THE WILD CARD RACE THIS WEEK
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners dropped their series opener in Cincinnati against the Reds, and after going 21-6 in August, they are 1-3 to open September. They are in the midst of a 10-game road trip, and once they finish in Cincinnati, the Mariners head to Tampa Bay for a four-game series against the Rays. With only six games remaining against non-playoff contenders, if Seattle cools off, it could be in for a final tough month.
Tampa Bay Rays: Speaking of the Rays, they’re also off to a slow start since calendars turned to September. Tampa Bay opened its series against the Boston Red Sox with a loss Monday, wasting Aaron Civale’s 12-strikeout performance. The Rays will send Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow to the mound in the final two games, looking for a series win. Tampa Bay is in the midst of the most challenging stretch remaining on its schedule, with seven straight series against teams vying for a spot in the post-season.
Houston Astros: This week may be Houston’s toughest stretch of schedule remaining. After wrapping up in Arlington, the Astros will welcome the San Diego Padres for a weekend series. And while, yes, the Padres don’t look to be playoff-bound, they completed a sweep of the San Francisco Giants over the weekend and have more talent than their record would indicate. In the meantime, there is no overstating just how important Houston’s current series against Texas is. With Toronto taking on the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals this week, if Houston can win the series, it seems likely the Blue Jays and Rangers would battle for the last playoff spot over the final few weeks.
Texas Rangers: Similarly for the Rangers, if they are able to come back and win the final two games of the series, they may be able to hold off the Blue Jays heading into next week’s four-game set in Toronto. Texas hosts the A’s this weekend in what could be a momentum-building series. Over the past two weeks, the Rangers’ bullpen has a 6.44 ERA, seven blown saves and has allowed 16 home runs in just 50.1 innings. Their starters haven’t been much better, posting a 5.31 ERA over the same stretch, so Eovaldi’s return Tuesday holds a little more weight for a Texas pitching staff that could use the player that won the AL Pitcher of the Month in May.
Toronto Blue Jays: As much as it’s already been said, the Blue Jays need to take advantage of their final five games against Oakland and Kansas City. Not only does the stretch offer them a chance to catch or pass the Rangers, but it’s the last time that they will face a non-division opponent outside of next week’s clash with Texas. While the wins haven’t necessarily been as comfortable as you’d hope against this stretch of opponents, Toronto is one victory away from capturing a third straight series, something they haven’t done since the All-Star break.
Boston Red Sox: Simply put, the Red Sox might have the toughest remaining schedule in baseball. With only seven of their 24 remaining games coming against teams below .500 — four of those coming against the Yankees — Boston will need to step up its play if it wants to make the playoffs. The Red Sox haven’t won a series over a team above .500 since July 26, when they completed a two-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves. Beating the Rays on Monday was a good start, but they’re in tough against Eflin and Glasnow for the remainder of the series. Once they wrap in Tampa, the Red Sox will welcome the Orioles, who are 11-4 over their 15 games, to Fenway.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Tuesday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 79.9% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 78.6%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 96.8% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 97.6%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 99.6% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.7%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 92.3% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 87.0%
Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 61.4% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 68.4%
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 59.1% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 63.7%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 7.4% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 2.5%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 0.3% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.1%
