With fewer than 10 games remaining on the Toronto Blue Jays’ regular-season schedule, the countdown to October is well underway for the AL East leader as the playoffs draw closer with every passing day.
Despite dropping the final two contests of their four-game set in Tampa, the Blue Jays remain in the driver’s seat in both the division and American League, and are poised to officially lock down a playoff spot in the coming days.
Toronto’s magic number for clinching its berth in the post-season stands at three entering play Friday. However, there is a possibility that the clinch could come sooner, based on some scheduling quirks, which see Detroit, Cleveland and Boston play each other in the coming week. That muddies what win total the Blue Jays may need to reach without the threat of being passed in the standings — drawing shades of the team’s overnight clinch in 2015.
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Watch Blue Jays vs. Royals on Sportsnet
The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game set against the Kansas City Royals on Friday. Catch the action on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+, starting at 7:40 p.m. ET / 4:40 p.m. PT.
Regardless of what the math says, the Blue Jays undoubtedly have their sights set higher than simply receiving an invite to the dance. With a division title and first-round bye on the line, Toronto will continue to fend off the teams below it in the standings as it kicks off a series in Kansas City against the Royals on Friday.
With a loaded slate of games this weekend, the Blue Jays are far from the only team with something at stake in the sprint to the finish line. There may not be a bigger matchup this weekend than the final regular-season meeting of the co-AL West-leading Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, with the winner set to take the division lead while securing the tiebreak with just a week to go.
As we enter the final stretch of the 2025 season, here’s a look at how the playoff picture is shaping up in both leagues.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (89-64): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers (85-68): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leader (Houston Astros or Seattle Mariners, 84-69) vs. Boston Red Sox (83-70)
No. 4 New York Yankees (86-67) vs. No. 5 Astros or Mariners (84-69)
*Astros and Mariners tied for AL West lead. Season series is 5-5 with three games remaining.
National League
No. 1 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (94-59): Bye
No. 2 and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (91-62): Bye
No. 3 and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (86-67) vs. No. 6 New York Mets (79-74)
No. 4 Chicago Cubs (88-65) vs. No. 5 San Diego Padres (83-70)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
The Guardians are baseball’s hottest team, winners of seven straight and 12 of 13. That surge has pulled them within a game and a half of Boston for the final wild-card spot, and just 3.5 back of Detroit with three head-to-head games still to come.
The Texas Rangers are the other team with an outside shot at crashing the party in the AL, but they have lost their last four games after a winning six in a row, dealing a blow to their playoff hopes.
In the National League, the Mets have continued to lose ground to the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks, who both sit just two games back of New York in the wild-card chase.
The Diamondbacks, in particular, would have to go on quite a run to catch the Mets, as they have the toughest remaining schedule in baseball, with series against the Phillies, Dodgers and Padres to close out their season.
STORYLINES TO FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND
Can Blue Jays punch their ticket? Toronto will look to become the first AL club to officially clinch a playoff spot in its series against the Royals behind the trio of Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage. With no outside help, the Blue Jays can clinch with a sweep of the Royals, but any combination of three Toronto wins and Guardians losses will do the trick. Kansas City has cooled considerably in recent weeks, falling out of post-season contention, but with a lineup that still features the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino, the Royals remain a threat to put up runs in any game. Toronto’s bats will also be looking to rebound after the Rays held them to one run or fewer in three of four games this week. The Blue Jays will be missing Kansas City’s top arms in the series, with Seth Lugo on the IL and Cole Ragans having pitched Thursday, but Michael Wacha is scheduled to pitch Sunday, and he held Toronto to three hits and one run over eight innings at the beginning of August. So, if the Blue Jays want to take care of business themselves, they’ll have to handle a Royals team eager to play spoiler.
Who takes control of AL West? Both the Astros and Mariners handled business earlier this week to enter this critical division series with matching records. And to make things even more intriguing this weekend in Houston, both sides have their top three arms lined up for the weekend, with Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jason Alexander scheduled to face Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. With the season series tied at 5-5, whoever comes away victorious this weekend will not only gain a leg up on winning the division but will also secure the season-series tiebreaker. Houston, which has won seven of the last eight AL West titles, has struggled mightily to score runs in the second half, but could be getting a major boost against Seattle in the form of third baseman Isaac Paredes. Manager Joe Espada told reporters recently that the all-star was nearing a return from an injury initially thought to be season-ending, a significant development for an Astros team without Yordan Alvarez.
Will Yankees take advantage of weak schedule? No team in baseball has an easier schedule to finish out the season than the Yankees. They opened it with a series win over Minnesota, and after beating Baltimore Thursday, they’ll play six more against the Orioles and three against the White Sox. That’ll continue this weekend in Baltimore, where New York will have to solve Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish — the Orioles’ two best pitchers — to win the series. If the Yankees have serious designs on catching and surpassing the Blue Jays in the race for the AL East, they can’t afford to slip during this soft spot of their schedule. Toronto’s magic number to clinch the division remains at six, so unless we see some pretty dramatic results this weekend, the AL East race will likely be decided next week.
Do Guardians keep rolling? Cleveland has found itself back in the mix, thanks to a run of starting pitching excellence. The Guardians are using a six-man rotation, which has collectively carried the lowest team ERA in the majors in September. Cleveland will hope its starters continue to deliver in a four-game set against the Minnesota Twins this weekend. Joey Cantillo, who’s scheduled to pitch Saturday, is one name to watch for Cleveland down the stretch, as the 25-year-old southpaw has emerged as one of the Guardians’ most consistent starters and has given up fewer than two runs in five consecutive outings. While Cleveland’s surge had pushed back Toronto’s clinch date, it has also shaken up the bottom of the wild-card picture. The Red Sox have faded since Roman Anthony hit the injured list, going just 5-8 in his absence, so the Guardians are truly within striking distance of Boston as they match up with one of MLB’s weakest teams.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.
American League
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 96.8% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 94.7%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 91.7% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 88.8%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.4%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 98.5% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 97.2%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 82.8% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 80.7%
Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 25.5% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 30.8%
Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 4.7% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 8.4%
National League
Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Chicago’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Chicago’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.6%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 86.7% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 71.9%
Arizona’s FanGraphs odds: 4.6% | Arizona’s Baseball Reference odds: 11.6%
Cincinnati’s FanGraphs odds: 7.7% | Cincinnati’s Baseball Reference odds: 12.7%
