MLB Playoff Push: Blue Jays turn attention to AL East in busy final week

Nearly six months of action have come and gone in the 2025 MLB regular season, but the post-season picture is anything but settled with just a week to play.

Just six teams have officially clinched a berth in October, and only two division titles have been celebrated after a wild September has set the stage for a sprint to the finish line.

For the Toronto Blue Jays — who on Sunday became the first American League team to lock down a playoff spot — the focus shifts to winning the AL East and securing a bye to the ALDS over their final six games.

To do so, Toronto will need to hold off the New York Yankees, with its magic number sitting at four as it returns home to begin a series against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday. That means that any combination of Blue Jays wins and Yankees losses equalling four will deliver the division title north of the border for the first time since 2015.

Watch Blue Jays vs. Red Sox on Sportsnet

The Toronto Blue Jays’ drive to clinch the AL East continues Tuesday as they face the Boston Red Sox. Catch the action on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+, starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.

Broadcast schedule

New York will have every opportunity to keep the pressure on, however, as its six remaining games come at home against the last-place Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles.

It’s not the only race with a lot at stake this week. Late-season stumbles from the New York Mets, Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros have thrown the wild-card chases into flux in both leagues, leaving all three clubs fighting for their playoff lives.

So, as we buckle in for what is sure to be a dramatic six days of baseball, here is where things stand in MLB’s post-season hunt.

IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY

American League

No. 1 and AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (90-66): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Seattle Mariners (87-69): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers (85-71) vs. No. 6 Cleveland Guardians (84-72)*
No. 4 New York Yankees (88-68) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (85-71)
*Guardians and Astros are tied at 84-72, but Cleveland holds the tiebreaker.

National League

No. 1 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (95-62): Bye
No. 2 and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (92-64): Bye
No. 3 and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (88-68) vs. No. 6 Cincinnati Reds (80-76)*
No. 4 Chicago Cubs (88-68) vs. No. 5 San Diego Padres (86-71)
*Reds and Mets are tied at 80-76, but Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker.

WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

The bottom of the American League standings will seemingly come down to four teams battling for three spots. The Astros and Guardians enter the week with matching records, while the Red Sox and Tigers sit just one game ahead. One of Detroit and Cleveland will be able to remove itself from the wild-card picture by winning the AL Central, but the final two spots are completely up for grabs.

The Tigers will have the most control over their destiny, as they finish their season with series on the road against the Guardians and Red Sox

In the National League, the Mets were finally caught in the wild-card standings after dropping a series to the Washington Nationals and falling to 25-34 in the second half. Thanks to a tiebreaker, it’s now New York that is in the role of chaser, alongside the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are just one game behind the Reds and Mets.

Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker over both clubs, putting it in the driver’s seat with six games to play.

The San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals also remain on the outskirts of the conversation, sitting 3.5 games back. But either would need a collapse from each of the three teams ahead of them to sneak into the post-season.

TOP MATCHUPS WITH PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS TO WATCH THIS WEEK

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Toronto’s final push for an AL East title will come against a division rival in front of the Rogers Centre faithful. The earliest the Blue Jays could clinch would be on Wednesday, if they were to win the first two games of the series and the Yankees lost two to the White Sox, but they’ll be up against a desperate Red Sox team, which is running out its three most consistent starters for the series. Boston will throw Lucas Giolito, Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello at Toronto as it hopes to hold its spot as the American League’s fifth seed. The Blue Jays’ bats responded in a big way in Sunday’s playoff-clinching win in Kansas City, but after a four-game stretch in which they scored just three combined runs, there’s no doubt Toronto’s hitters want to distance themselves from that slump with a big offensive performance against the Red Sox.

Yankees vs. White Sox: The Yankees continued to beat up on the soft portion of their schedule over the weekend, completing a series win over the Baltimore Orioles and improving to 12-7 in September. New York hasn’t officially clinched its playoff spot, but has a magic number of three and seems poised to secure its place in October in the coming days. The lighter schedule also plays into the Blue Jays’ pursuit of the AL East, as the Yankees could complicate matters by simply handling business to end the year. However, all the pressure remains on the Bronx Bombers. If Toronto were to go 3-3 over its final six, New York would need to finish a perfect 6-0 to take the division lead. The Yankees are also at the centre of another race coming down to the wire, as Aaron Judge and Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh continue to duke it out for AL MVP honours. With Raleigh making a hard charge at 60 home runs, Judge will be under the microscope this week as he tries to become just the 15th player to repeat as MVP.

Guardians vs. Tigers: On Sept. 2, Cleveland blew a 7-5 lead against the Red Sox to fall to 68-69. According to FanGraphs, its odds of making the playoffs stood at just 2.5 per cent as it was 10.5 games behind Detroit in the AL Central. But since that loss, the Guardians have pulled themselves off the mat, going an MLB-best 16-3 to surge right back into the thick of the playoff race and now have an opportunity to pass the Tigers in the division this week. For its part, Detroit is 5-11 since Sept. 3, looking nothing like the dominant squad we saw earlier in the season. Making this week’s three-game set even more important is that the Guardians hold the tiebreaker after sweeping the Tigers just last week, so if Cleveland wins two of three, it will take the division lead.

Cubs vs. Mets: Although the Reds-Pirates and Diamondbacks-Dodgers series certainly hold weight in the NL playoff race to open this week, the story around the final wild-card spot will continue to be about the Mets. After signing Juan Soto to the largest deal in baseball history and going 55-42 in the first half, all while carrying the second-highest payroll in the sport, the 2025 Mets could go down as one of modern baseball’s greatest disappointments if they miss the post-season. They’ll be in for a tough test as they head to Wrigley to try to reverse their fortunes this week, but with the Cubs in the midst of their own struggles, the Mets will hope to shake off their September swoon. New York clearly has the talent to compete in October, but after being passed by Cincinnati, it no longer controls its own fate. So, the Mets’ season could be on the line in Chicago.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Tuesday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.

American League

Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 84.5% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 82.3%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 90.2% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 94.8%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 59.8% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 64.9%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 65.6% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 57.9%

National League

Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%