As the final weekend of the 2025 regular season officially arrives, the chase for October is heating up as teams battle it out for post-season positioning.
September has been a month of upheaval, when contenders have surged and faltered, flipping the standings on their head and ensuring that the playoff picture remains undecided heading into the season’s final three days.
The Toronto Blue Jays sit in the middle of it all, as they look to hold off the New York Yankees in the chase for the AL East and the top seed in the American League. Not only is a division banner on the line, but a bye straight to the ALDS and a week of rest are on the table in the final series of the year.
Toronto will begin the weekend with a leg up, despite both teams carrying identical 91-68 records, thanks to the tiebreaker, which it secured by going 8-5 against New York in the season series. But the Yankees have seemingly hit their stride at the right time, improving to 15-7 in September with a sweep of the Chicago White Sox to pull even with the Blue Jays.
It all sets the stage for a dramatic couple of days that will undoubtedly impact how the post-season unfolds. As the Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays and the Yankees welcome the Baltimore Orioles to New York, the AL East certainly won’t come easy to either team.
Along with Toronto and New York’s compelling finish, a number of other races across baseball are set to come to a head this weekend. So let’s take a look at how things stand before the games begin.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (91-68): Bye*
No. 2 and AL West-leading Seattle Mariners (90-69): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians (86-73) vs. No. 6 Detroit Tigers (86-73)*
No. 4 New York Yankees (91-68)* vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (87-72)
*Blue Jays and Yankees are tied at 91-68, but Toronto holds the tiebreaker.
*Guardians and Tigers are tied at 86-73, but Cleveland holds the tiebreaker.
National League
No. 1 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (96-63): Bye
No. 2 and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (94-65): Bye
No. 3 and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (90-69) vs. No. 6 New York Mets (82-77)
No. 4 Chicago Cubs (89-70) vs. No. 5 San Diego Padres (87-72)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
A little over one week ago, the Houston Astros were clinging to the lead in the AL West, trying to fend off Seattle for their fifth straight division title. But now, after a 1-5 stretch, Houston finds itself on the outside of the AL playoff picture entering the final weekend.
With Detroit and Boston squaring off to end their season, the Astros will get the chance to make up ground in their series against the Angels. Either the Red Sox or Tigers are guaranteed to lose twice, so Houston can catch up by handling business in Anaheim. However, the Astros are on the wrong side of the tiebreaker against all three of Cleveland, Boston and Detroit, leaving them unable to sneak in with a tie. So, they must finish clear of one of those clubs to claim a wild-card spot.
In the National League, the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks remain in pursuit of the Mets, who retook sole possession of the third wild-card spot with a series win over the Cubs earlier this week.
On the surface, New York would appear to have the easiest matchup of the three teams to end the season, as it visits the below-.500 Miami Marlins. But Miami is welcoming the slumping Mets with its three top starters — Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez and Edward Cabrera — after reshuffling its rotation for the series.
The Reds and Diamondbacks, meanwhile, will face playoff-bound clubs in the Brewers and Padres, which will likely prioritize how they line up for October with only seeding on the line.
WHERE THINGS STAND IN EACH UNDECIDED RACE
AL East: Daulton Varsho’s heroics on Thursday helped the Blue Jays snap their offensive funk and pick up a massive win to keep the Yankees at bay. Now, Toronto must solve a Rays pitching staff that largely held it in check just last week and has had its number for many matchups in 2025. The Blue Jays are scheduled to use Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and, if needed, Kevin Gausman in the series, banking on that trio to outpace or match the Yankees over the weekend. The math is quite simple for the Blue Jays to clinch the division — they cannot lose more games than New York wins, and if things break right, Toronto could clinch by Saturday at the earliest. The Yankees will be in for some tough pitching matchups against the Orioles. They’re set to face Trevor Rogers (1.35 ERA) and Kyle Bradish (2.25 ERA), both of whom delivered strong starts against the Bronx Bombers just last week. With the stakes the highest they’ve been this season, the AL East race promises no shortage of drama heading into October.
AL Central: After sitting 15.5 games behind the Tigers in early July, the Guardians are on the verge of winning the AL Central. Cleveland completed its epic comeback this week, taking two of three from Detroit, securing the tiebreaker and putting itself in prime position to win the division. The Guardians will finish their season at home against the Texas Rangers, who have lost eight of their last nine and have shut down some of their stars for the season. Cleveland simply has to win as many games as Detroit, which plays the Red Sox at Fenway this week, to set the record for the largest standings deficit overcome by a division champion. Another advantage for the winner of the Central is that whoever emerges victorious won’t have to fight for a wild-card spot.
Second and third AL wild cards: With four teams — Cleveland, Detroit, Boston and Houston — in play for three spots, a number of scenarios could unfold this weekend. The Red Sox are the closest to clinching a playoff position, needing just one win or one Astros loss to get in, but as previously mentioned, Boston will face Detroit, giving Houston the opportunity to gain ground on one team by beating the Angels. The Astros don’t hold the tiebreak over the Red Sox, so they would be eliminated with two losses, while the Guardians and Tigers can clinch a playoff berth with two wins. Detroit may also turn to Cy Young favourite Tarik Skubal on short rest Sunday if it’s a must-win, a gamble that could decide both its playoff fate and how dangerous it would be if it makes it in.
Third NL wild card: In the National League race, all eyes remain on the Mets in the final three days of the season. New York has a one-game advantage over the Reds and is two games ahead of the Diamondbacks, but it can’t afford to fall into a tie with either squad, as both would win a tiebreaker over the Mets. So while two New York wins would eliminate Arizona, Cincinnati can’t be eliminated until Game 162 if it wins out. The Reds used two of their top-three arms in their series loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates this week, but still have all-star southpaw Andrew Abbott at their disposal against the Brewers, with two wins — if not a sweep — likely necessary to have a shot at returning to the post-season for the first time since 2020.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.
American League
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 88.9% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 90.0%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 98.8% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.3%
Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 84.1% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 80.8%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 28.3% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 29.9%
National League
Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Chicago’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Chicago’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 78.3% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 68.3%
Cincinnati’s FanGraphs odds: 19.6% | Cincinnati’s Baseball Reference odds: 26.6%
Arizona’s FanGraphs odds: 2.1% | Arizona’s Baseball Reference odds: 5.1%
