With September officially underway, the final push to the MLB playoffs has arrived. And there’s perhaps no race set to heat up over the rest of the regular season quite like the battle brewing atop the AL East.
Sitting three games up on the New York Yankees and 3.5 up on the Boston Red Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays are tasked with holding onto their division lead down the stretch with one of the toughest remaining schedules in baseball.
Their first major test will arrive Friday when they open a three-game set in the Bronx against those Yankees, who took advantage of a soft portion of their schedule in late-August and now return home winners of nine of their last 11 games.
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Watch Blue Jays vs. Yankees on Sportsnet
The Toronto Blue Jays begin a massive series against the New York Yankees on Friday at Yankee Stadium. Catch the action on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+ starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.
While the Blue Jays haven’t quite been playing at the high level they reached during their red-hot summer, their offence is coming off an impressive series in Cincinnati, where the club came away with its fourth series win out of its last five.
Although the Yankees can’t overtake the Blue Jays in the division this weekend, with Toronto already owning the tiebreaker, the stakes haven’t been higher for these two teams this season. So you can bet that after Toronto took six of seven against the Yankees in June and July, New York will be looking to turn the tables in their final regular-season matchup of the year.
It’s all a sign that October baseball is on the horizon, and beyond the intrigue of the Blue Jays-Yankees series, there are a number of storylines to follow as the post-season nears. Here’s how it all lines up this weekend.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (81-59): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers (81-60): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (77-64) vs. No. 6 Seattle Mariners (73-67)
No. 4 New York Yankees (78-62) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (78-63)
National League
No. 1 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (86-55): Bye
No. 2 and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (81-59): Bye
No. 3 and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (78-62) vs. No. 6 New York Mets (75-65)
No. 4 Chicago Cubs (80-60) vs. No. 5 San Diego Padres (76-64)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
After the American League’s six-team playoff picture seemed to be all but set just weeks ago, a Seattle Mariners slump and recent surges from the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays have shaken things up. The Rays beat the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday in a series opener, extending their win streak to seven games — a stretch that included a sweep of the Mariners.
As Toronto and New York clash at Yankee Stadium, one winner will be the Red Sox, who can gain ground each day if they handle business in Arizona.
Things are a little more settled in the National League at this point. The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies hold large enough division leads and are playing well enough to not be in imminent danger of being passed. The NL West race is currently at a stalemate after both the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres were swept by sub-.500 teams this week.
But if there’s one NL team that can make a significant move this weekend, it’s Cincinnati. The Reds are hosting the New York Mets — who they trail by five games in the wild-card race — for three games, and will have the chance to make up ground head-to-head against the club they would likely have to catch to earn a playoff berth.
THREE AL WEEKEND SERIES WITH MAJOR PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees: Both sides will send out a trio of pitchers who could reasonably start in the playoffs — Gausman, Scherzer, Bassitt vs. Schlittler, Gil, Fried. The rotations could prove to be a difference-maker in the series, as both bullpens have been among MLB’s worst by ERA in the second half, so whichever starters are able to work effectively deeper into games will be giving their teams an advantage. One intriguing matchup to follow, in particular, will be the Blue Jays hitters against Fried. Toronto’s lineup has been as successful as any this season against the Yankees’ southpaw, who has allowed 11 runs and seven walks through two starts against the Blue Jays this season. Fried scuffled through July and August but has settled in with three consecutive quality starts ahead of this weekend’s series.
Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks: Sitting under .500 and 5.5 games back in the NL wild-card race, the Diamondbacks would need some help to return to the post-season. But that doesn’t mean that they can’t play spoiler — a role they have the talent and schedule to play perfectly. Arizona will try to do just that against a Red Sox squad that’s going to need to prove it can rebound from the loss of Roman Anthony. The 21-year-old rookie wasn’t just a nice story in Boston, he was a key cog in its lineup, batting leadoff and carrying an .859 OPS through his first 71 career games. So now, the Red Sox are faced with chasing the AL East title without their best hitter, and with an opportunity this weekend to make up ground on either Toronto or New York, they’ll have to find an answer to Anthony’s absence quickly.
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers: With Seattle’s slip in play recently, the Astros have been afforded the chance to gain some ground in an AL West race that looked like it was getting away from them. While it hasn’t taken full advantage of the opportunity, going just 3-4 over the past week against the Yankees and Angels, Houston will look to put some ground between it and another division rival this weekend. After buying at the trade deadline, the Rangers faded in the AL playoff picture and lost Nathan Eovaldi and Corey Seager to injuries, seemingly ending any hopes of a late-season comeback. But Texas ended August on a 9-2 run, and can further gain ground in both the division and wild-card race in this weekend’s three-game set against the Astros.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.
American League
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.8%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 92.1% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 82.0%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 99.8% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.3%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 97.1% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.6%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 75.5% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 54.0%
Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 12.7% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 37.6%
Kansas City’s FanGraphs odds: 9.7% | Kansas City’s Baseball Reference odds: 12.8%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 9.9% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 14.4%
National League
Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 99.5% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.4%
Chicago’s FanGraphs odds: 99.8% | Chicago’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 96.9% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 96.3%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 95.4% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 80.2%
San Francisco’s FanGraphs odds: 4.2% | San Francisco’s Baseball Reference odds: 11.7%
Cincinnati’s FanGraphs odds: 2.3% | Cincinnati’s Baseball Reference odds: 7.9%
