Coming into August, the Seattle Mariners sat seventh in the AL wild-card race and third in the AL West. Now, the club sits first in the division after tying a franchise record for wins in a month, with a chance to add two more W’s before the calendar flips to September.
While the Mariners have played at an incredible pace to climb up the standings, they’ve gotten some help from the teams around them.
Before beating the New York Mets Monday night, the Texas Rangers owned a 3-10 record over the previous two weeks, bringing them back into the wild card picture. Meanwhile, just down the I-45, the Houston Astros haven’t been able to make up much ground themselves, going 5-5 over their last 10.
For the Toronto Blue Jays, the shift out west brings a new target for a team looking to work its way back into a wild card spot. As scoreboard-watching season heats up, the Blue Jays can now keep their eyes on both teams in Texas while trying to gain momentum for the stretch run.
With just 30 games remaining on Toronto’s schedule, let’s check in on the playoff picture to see where the Mariners’ run has left the rest of the AL contenders.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
No. 1 and AL East-Leading Baltimore Orioles (82-49): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Seattle Mariners (75-56): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (69-63) vs. No. 6 Houston Astros (75-58)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (80-52) vs. No. 5 Texas Rangers (74-57)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
With the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels dropping 11 or more games out, the wild card chase is shaping up to be a five-team battle.
At the bottom of that group is the Boston Red Sox, who have slowly moved further away from the pack. After splitting a four-game set with the Astros at home, Boston has lost three of its last four, moving it 5.5 games back of the final wild card spot and dropping its playoff odds to below 10 per cent. The Red Sox have one of the tougher schedules remaining in MLB, with six series against teams above .500 in September.
The next week-and-a-half will provide the Blue Jays with a chance to make up some serious ground. Despite dropping two of three to the Cleveland Guardians, Toronto turned around and took the first game of its series against the Washington Nationals Monday night.
As they move through the easiest portion of their schedule — with series against the Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals on deck — the Blue Jays can make headway on catching the Astros or Rangers, especially with the two clubs set to face off Sept. 4-6.
LOOKING AT THE WILD CARD RACE THIS WEEK
Seattle Mariners: Just one game away from a franchise record for wins in a month, Seattle has two games at home against the Athletics to get the job done. In Monday night’s game, Julio Rodriguez continued his August assault on opposing pitchers, going 4-for-5 with a home run and three RBI, bringing his OPS for the month to 1.198.
Tampa Bay Rays: After posting a .333 winning percentage in July, the Rays have taken advantage of a weaker August schedule to cement themselves atop the wild-card picture. That will only continue this week, as they hit the road to face the Miami Marlins for a two-game series before heading to Cleveland to face the Guardians — who they beat in a three-game set earlier this month.
Texas Rangers: While it took a ninth-inning rally to beat the Mets Monday, the Rangers now have a chance to end their three-series losing streak. They’ll turn to Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for the final two games as they look to regain pole position atop the AL West. Before relinquishing top spot to Seattle on Sunday, Texas hadn’t been in second place since April 8.
Houston Astros: The Astros have scored 30 runs over their last two games. They beat up on the Red Sox 13-5 Monday night, and can deal a severe blow to Boston’s playoff hopes with another win or two in the series. They’ll host the Yankees this weekend as they get set for next week’s ever-important series against the Rangers.
Toronto Blue Jays: With Matt Chapman hitting the IL and Bo Bichette awaiting the results of an MRI on his quad, the Blue Jays managed to put up six runs in their win over the Nationals. The team has now scored six or more runs in three straight games, something they had only done once before this season. While an offensive breakout has seemingly been on the horizon all year, could the soft schedule ahead give Toronto’s bats a chance to get rolling?
Boston Red Sox: If the Red Sox are going to have a shot at making the post-season, they can’t afford to keep losing to teams ahead of them in the standings. They were able to make up some ground in early August after a 5-2 stretch against the Royals and Detroit Tigers, but so far this month, they’re just 3-7 against teams that currently have a better record in the AL. They have the opportunity to flip the script heading into September with the two remaining games in their series against the Astros.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Tuesday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 86.5% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 90.6%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 98.0% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 97.7%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 99.2% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.8%
Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 67.5% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 76.8%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 86.5% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 75.7%
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 49.4% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 53.6%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 8.8% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 4.3%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 0.1% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.3%
Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 1.8% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 2.1%
