As calendars flip to September and the post-season picture starts to come into focus, each and every game matters more than ever for teams in the hunt for October.
After a day off for all but eight teams on Thursday, all 30 teams are in action Friday to kick off what should be an entertaining final month of the season.
For the Toronto Blue Jays, that means continuing their stretch against MLB’s basement dwellers, starting with the Rockies in Colorado. Toronto sits 2.5 games back of the Texas Rangers after Aroldis Chapman plunked DJ Stewart to hand the New York Mets a walk-off extra-innings victory Wednesday night.
With a four-game series against the Rangers on the horizon, Toronto will have a chance to make up some ground with some strong play over its next nine games.
The Blue Jays actually have one of the easier remaining schedules in MLB by combined opponent win percentage, but they play the games for a reason. So let’s check in on the AL playoff picture and how the rest of the wild-card contenders line up in September.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
No. 1 and AL East-Leading Baltimore Orioles (83-50): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Seattle Mariners (76-57): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (69-65) vs. No. 6 Texas Rangers (75-58)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (82-52) vs. No. 5 Houston Astros (77-58)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
After being swept by the Astros earlier this week, the Boston Red Sox are 6.5 games out of a wild-card spot, and don’t have a lot of time to re-insert themselves into the playoff conversation.
It’s shaping up to be the Blue Jays competing against the two AL West teams that don’t claim the division title for a spot at the table on Oct. 3.
While Toronto only has four games remaining against the Rangers in terms of chances to make up ground head-to-head, there will be some guaranteed losses coming from the teams ahead of them with 13 matchups remaining between the Rangers, Mariners and Astros.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE CHECK FOR EACH TEAM IN THE WILD CARD RACE
Seattle Mariners: Seattle’s remaining opponents have a combined .523 winning percentage, the eighth-highest mark in MLB. Their last 10 games come against the Rangers and Astros — seven of those coming against Texas. Before then, however, Seattle’s schedule is a bit of a mixed bag. It has series against teams out of contention like the Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets, but it will also play the post-season hopeful Cincinnati Reds and essentially locked in Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Houston Astros: While Seattle has the toughest remaining schedule of all the teams in the AL West by opponent winning percentage, Houston has the easiest. The Astros’ remaining opponents have a combined mark of .457. In terms of in-division games, Houston has three games remaining against all three of the Rangers, Mariners and Athletics. The Astros also have series against the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres, two teams that have the talent to perform better than their record would indicate, perhaps making their schedule a little tougher than it appears.
Texas Rangers: The Rangers have the ability to control their own destiny more than any other team on this list. Their remaining opponents have a combined .507 win percentage, but nearly every team they play this month considers themselves to be a playoff contender. Texas has 10 games against the Mariners and Astros, four against the Blue Jays, three against the Red Sox and six against the teams atop the AL Central. The Rangers’ only remaining games against teams fully out of it right now, come against the Athletics and Angels.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays’ remaining opponents have a combined win percentage of .474 — the fifth easiest total in baseball. Of course, a lot of that comes in the next 10 days with the Rockies, Athletics and Royals, but the Yankees’ hard fall has opened things up a bit at the end of the season for Toronto. There may be no series more important than when the Blue Jays welcome the Rangers to town Sept. 11 – 14, especially if they can make up some ground and build momentum leading into that week. While the 12-game stretch of just Yankees and Rays has been highlighted all season long, the Blue Jays will get another crack at the Red Sox to finish their season with 15-straight in-division matchups.
Boston Red Sox: If the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs, they’re going to have to beat some good teams. They have the sixth-hardest remaining schedule, with their opponents checking in with a .528 winning percentage. Boston has 12 total games against the Rays and Baltimore Orioles, and six straight on the road against the Blue Jays and Rangers. The Red Sox do get three gamers against the Royals, Yankees and Chicago White Sox, but without a dramatic shift in fortunes, the deck seems stacked against a Boston playoff appearance.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 86.7% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 86.1%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 94.1% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 92.6%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 99.7% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.3%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 94.8% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 89.0%
Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 70.1% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 75.7%
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 43.9% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 49.6%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 4.9% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.3%
