After months of players vs. owners acrimony, will-they-won’t-they-play speculation, lawyers arguing over verbiage within contract minutiae, and still-unresolved debates over whether or not restarting the league during a raging pandemic is in the best interests of anyone’s health, MLB is back!
We’ve got a chaotic, 60-game sprint to the playoffs, empty ballparks with pumped in crowd noise, 30-man rosters, a universal designated hitter, a runner starting on second base during extra innings, bans of spitting and high-fives that no one seems to be following, and so much more during the strangest season of baseball you’ll ever witness.
It all starts Thursday in the American capital as Gerrit Cole’s New York Yankees take on Max Scherzer’s defending World Series champion Washington Nationals. To get you set, here’s a look at where we left off before COVID-19 put the baseball world on pause.
Will Houston have a problem?
Remember that whole thing? Those were the days — when the biggest problem MLB faced was an elaborate sign-stealing scheme that marred the result of the 2017 World Series, implicated several well-decorated athletes and coaches, exposed an unapologetically nefarious culture within one of the most successful franchises in recent history, and brought heavy criticism upon the Commissioner’s office over the relatively weak punishments handed out in response. Simpler times!
Houston’s sign-stealing scandal was the topic this spring, as Astros former and present were marched out in front of cameras and microphones to solemnly atone for their sins. But while those figurative pounds of flesh were exacted, there remained the looming question of whether the league’s pitchers would exact revenge upon literal pounds of flesh in the way of fastballs thrown at Astros hitters.
It was all a little ridiculous, but every time a Houston batter was drilled during spring training it made a headline somewhere. And not for nothing, one of the nine teams the Astros will play this season is the Los Angeles Dodgers — the same club they overcame in the 2017 World Series while regularly using electronic means to steal signs. We may be about to find out just how angry some of those Dodgers still are.
Meanwhile, one presumes the Astros are no longer cheating, which means that if they stumble out of the gate this season the ridicule across social media will be strong. That said, they’re still an insanely talented and well-constructed team, one that ZIPS projects to win 60 per cent of its games in this shortened season. So you might not want to bet on it.
[radioclip id=4934425]The contenders
It’s fair to assume the Yankees and Astros will remain the toast of the American League. Meanwhile, in the senior circuit, the Dodgers are projected by FanGraphs to win an MLB-best 36 games, and it won’t be a surprise to see the youthful Atlanta Braves and defending champion Nationals atop the standings along with them.
But who might fill out the rest of the playoff field? In the AL, the Tampa Bay Rays are one of baseball’s most resourceful, innovative franchises, which can only serve them well in a shortened season. The Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics will both be looking to return to the post-season. The Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox may take steps back this season — are the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels ready to push past them in the wild card race?
Meanwhile, the National League’s Central Division will be a meat grinder, with the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals all projected for 31 or 32 wins by FanGraphs. The New York Mets have a stacked rotation to ride through 60 games. And it would only take a bit of good luck and hot play for the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, or Arizona Diamondbacks to out-pace their .500 projections.
More than ever this season, the teams that remain healthy will have the best results. With an expedited training camp leading into an all-out sprint of a regular season, it won’t be surprising to see a prevalence of soft tissue injuries across the league, as hamstrings and obliques strain under the pressure. There’s also the looming possibility of positive COVID-19 tests that could sideline players for a week or more, and take away a team’s playoff hopes along with them.
Old faces in new places
You likely remember that Mookie Betts is now a Dodger, while Cole’s a Yankee. As if those behemoths needed any more talent.
But perhaps you’ve forgotten that Anthony Rendon joined Mike Trout in Anaheim. Josh Donaldson now plays for last year’s AL Central champion Twins. Zack Wheeler’s a Phillie; Hyun-Jin Ryu’s a Toronto Blue Jay; Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas are Reds.
Stephen Strasburg re-signed with the Nationals. The up-and-coming White Sox added Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel and Edwin Encarnacion in hopes of emerging from a rebuild. Four-time all-star Madison Bumgarner joined the Diamondbacks; two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber was traded to the Texas Rangers; two-time all-star Marcell Ozuna will try to recapture his earlier-career form with the Braves, alongside fellow signees Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud and Will Smith.
A third of the league’s teams have new managers, too. Joe Maddon joined Rendon et al with the Angels. Joe Girardi stepped out of the broadcast booth and into Philadelphia’s dugout. Gabe Kapler, who Girardi replaced, is now helming the San Francisco Giants. David Ross runs the Cubs; Mike Matheny’s with the Royals; and Dusty Baker’s beginning the fifth managerial stint of his career with the Astros.
On the injury front, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton and Lance McCullers Jr. all appear ready to return from long layoffs, while Luis Severino, Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard will each miss 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
And plenty of household names won’t play this season after opting out due to the pandemic, including Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Leake, Ian Desmond, David Price, Felix Hernandez, Nick Markakis, Buster Posey, Michael Kopech, Wellington Castillo, Joe Ross, Tyson Ross, and Jordan Hicks.
The Ringers
Speaking of player movement, there are several free agents still on the market who could feasibly help any team willing to pay them 37 per cent of a full season’s salary — or perhaps even less if they sign after opening day.
Atop that list sits Yasiel Puig, whose last several months have been a whirlwind — from his unusually long free agency, to his contract agreement with Atlanta, to his positive COVID-19 test which scuttled that deal. As things currently stand, he remains a free agent, available to any team that wants him once he’s recovered from the virus.
Plenty of clubs would make themselves better by adding a big-armed outfielder with a 122 career OPS+ like Puig. Atlanta certainly thought so. And with a universal designated hitter in play for 2020, plus roster sizes expanded to 30 for the first couple weeks of the season, one imagines NL clubs ought to be looking to add some thump to their lineups.
That could create opportunities for some other unsigned hitters such as Scooter Gennet, Russell Martin and Mark Trumbo. Addison Russell opted to play in Korea, but Jacoby Ellsbury is still out there if any team wants to take an extreme long-shot flier on the one-time all-star.
With pitching staffs sure to be stretched thin during this demanding, 60-games-in-66-days season, there could also be some opportunity for unsigned pitchers left over from the winter to catch on with clubs. Andrew Cashner, Marco Estrada, Matt Harvey and Clay Buchholz are all free agents who made starts in the majors last season.
And, as always, there are plenty of veteran relievers for hire like Fernando Rodney, Tony Sipp, Jonny Venters, Pat Neshek, Matt Albers and Zach Duke. Younger pitchers coming off of major injuries such as Arodys Vizcaino, Danny Salazar and Aaron Sanchez could present interesting wild card plays as well if they’re healthy enough to perform.
Let’s get weird
Simply put — this season will be chaos. A 60-game sprint to the playoffs in which every moment will matter. Every managerial decision will take on new weight. Every two-week streak or slump at the plate will be that much more consequential. Every injury will have a greater impact on a team’s chances.
Every deep drive a stiff breeze carries just over the wall; every grounder that skips over an infielder’s glove; every ball that slips out of a pitcher’s hand. It’ll all count so much more. Luck and randomness will have a say in this season and in the end it could decide whether one team plays in October and another does not.
Typically, all the fluky, unpredictable things that happen in baseball are averaged out over 162 games. It’s really hard to get by on luck for six months. But you could get by for two. Or you could get by for one and play just far enough above your true talent in the other to sneak into a playoff spot.
Outside of the teams that aren’t even pretending to try — looking at you, Detroit and Baltimore — you can make a reasonable case for practically any team getting hot, staying healthy, and riding some good fortune to a post-season berth. Buckle up — it’s about to get weird.
