I have watched the entirety of Draymond Green’s career. I’m not going to sit here and tell you I’ve seen every minute of it, but I was there as a Golden State Warriors fan when he was drafted, and I’m still here now.
Game 3 of the NBA Finals was the single worst game I’ve ever seen him play. Worse than anything he did this season while recovering from a back injury. Worse than anything he did when he was a rookie, miscast as a traditional small forward in Mark Jackson’s outdated system.
The worst.
The good news for Golden State fans is that means he can only improve. Despite Green’s awful night, despite another hot start for Jaylen Brown (+333 to win Finals MVP), despite Steph Curry’s early foul trouble, the Warriors were right there at the start of the fourth quarter.
As I said before Game 3, a split in Boston seems worth betting on.
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Overall record against the spread: 33-27-1
Golden State Warriors (+4, +145) at Boston Celtics (-4, -165) – 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m.
As much as the public opinion on these two teams sways like grass in the wind based on the results of the most recent game, let’s take a step back.
It’s 2-1. Boston has not won the title yet, nor has Golden State lost it. The Warriors have, thus far, the best player in the series, and a top-two defence in the league. You can reasonably expect their second most important player, Green, to play better. They’ve been down 2-1 in the finals before.
If you’re like me and grabbed Boston to win the title at +400 or so during the first round, now wouldn’t be a terrible time to hedge on Golden State (+190). I hate hedging though. Believe in yourself! It’s still feeling like Boston’s series, but every minute that goes by I feel more and more confident we’re going to see a Game 7.
Game 3 saw an unfriendly whistle for Curry in the same way Game 2 was unfriendly to Brown. Beyond the Draymond of it all, that was the key to Boston’s win, along with an all-of-a-sudden healthy Robert Williams. Curry was hot all night, but continuously took careless fouls that took him out of rhythm.
This series has the same kind of back-and-forth slugfest vibe as Boston-Miami did. I think the Warriors hit back tonight. I’ve got Golden State (+4).
I got a little carried away with Game 3’s Same Game Parlay. So we’re pulling it back into the realm of reasonable possibility. I still really like Grant Williams OVER 0.5 made threes, a bet that’s cashed in 15 of 21 games so far this post-season.
Given Golden State’s abject failure on the boards (Boston rebounded 33 percent of their own misses), I expect to see more of Kevon Looney. The Dubs’ starting centre has deceptively good hands on defence, so I like Looney OVER 0.5 steals and blocks.
I’m digging what I see from Brown defensively. There have been a few times in each game this series where he’s knocked a ball loose but Golden State has managed to recover it, and it feels like he’s a threat to get a chase down block on every Warriors’ fast break. I’m riding Brown OVER 1.5 steals and blocks.
Finally, only because the number is so low and he just feels due, give me Jordan Poole OVER 11.5 points.
Keep a close eye on Steph Curry’s movement early in Game 4. He looked to be in a fair amount of pain following a loose-ball scrum late in the game on Wednesday but is expected to play. If he looks slow, or effected by that injury at all, start hammering Celtics live bets and the game score under.
Tonight’s Sicko Same Game Parlay pays off at +1200
· Golden State +4.5 (alternative spread)
· Kevon Looney OVER 0.5 steals and blocks
· Jaylen Brown OVER 1.5 steals and blocks
· Jordan Poole OVER 11.5 points
· Grant Williams OVER 0.5 threes made
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
